This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Best MLB Bets Today: Expert Picks for Nationals vs. Braves + Best MLB Player Props
Memorial Day is a great day for picnics, barbecues, trips to the beach, and spending time with family and friends. Be safe and enjoy the day and let's remember the ultimate sacrifices that so many have made that give us the chance to enjoy this day as much as we do.
Memorial Day also is the beginning for many MLB teams to start planning for their roster moves at the trade deadline since about ⅓ of the regular season has been completed. Teams at the top of their divisions will access their greatest weaknesses and look to strengthen them for a push to a World Series Championship. Underperforming teams such as the Houston Astros will have big decisions to make whether it's time to break up the team or continue to push toward another postseason appearance.
The Philadelphia Phillies lost their first series after having won or tied in the previous 11 series. The shocker here is that they lost to the worst-record team in the National League in the Colorado Rockies. However, every team has some of the best players in the world on their rosters and some teams are blessed to have an abundance of star-quality players. The point is that any team regardless of a low win percentage they are still capable of knocking off the top win percentage teams in the league as did the Rockies.
Best Bets for Nationals vs Braves
Two NL East division rivals square off in the first of a four-game series at Truist Park in Atlanta on Memorial Day set to start at 4:10 PM. The market has the Braves priced as –205 money line favorites with a posted total of 9 runs.
The Atlanta Braves have posted a 30-20 record averaging a –173 wager for –3.5% ROI and a loss of $2,170 for the Dime Bettor. Betting the Under in these 50 games has been quite profitable, posting a 31-17-2 record for 65% winning bets for a 24% ROI and a $14,220 profit for the Dime Bettor.
The Washington Nationals are 23-27 on the season averaging a 149-underdog bet for a solid 14% ROI and a $9,270 profit for the Dime Bettor. Even though they are four games under 0.500 they have outperformed market expectations and continue to be undervalued.
Starting Pitchers for Braves vs Nationals
The Nationals have left-hander Mitchell Parker on the hill, who is one of the best prospects in their weak farm system. He has posted a 3-2 record in seven starts with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.158 WHIP including 32 strikeouts and just eight walks over 38 innings of work. While in the minors he struggled with control and a below-average 92 MPH fastball, but he has corrected the free passes and has significantly better location with his fastball this season. He has qualities similar to the Pirates Bailey Falter and both rely on a four-seem fastball about 50% of pitches thrown and working ahead in the count.
He has walked only 5.2% of the batters he has faced this season and has kept the ball down in the zone allowing an average launch angle of 12 degrees. Of the batted balls in play 38% of them have been classified as weak or topped resulting in many easy outs for the defense.
The Braves will have Charlie Morton on the hill and is 3-1in nine starts with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.196 WHIP including 52 strikeouts and 21 walks spanning 51 innings of work. He is grooving his first pitches of an at-bat down the middle of the plate and batters have hit 0.444 this season. He has had just five at-bats that were 2-0 counts giving batters two pitches they can look to barrel up and drive into the gaps.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Monday
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced an exceptional 788-951 record for 45% winning bets that have averaged a 152-underdog bet resulting in a highly profitable 11% ROI and a $26,895 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2004. The requirements for this very active system are:
- Bet on road underdogs that are coming off a loss.
- This dog is priced at not more than a 200 underdog.
- This dog has a losing record in the current season.
- The favorite has 60% or more of their games in the current season.
Player Prop Bets for Memorial Day
- Bet the Guardians Josh Naylor to get two or more hits priced at +150.
- Bet the Phillies Bryce Harper to get two or more hits priced at +210.
- Bet the Phillies Alec Bohm to record an RBI priced at 145.
- Bet the Mariners Julio Rodriguez Under 1.5 total bases priced at –155.
- Bet the Giants Blake Snell Under 1.5 earned runs allowed priced at –105.
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