2026 World Cup Projections: Predicted Goals, Points and Tournament Odds for All 48 Teams
The 2026 FIFA World Cup across the United States, Canada and Mexico will be the largest in tournament history: 48 teams, 104 matches and eight rounds for one champion. RotoWire has projected points, goals and assists for every team across both the group stage and the full tournament, built on odds, stats, and team-level attacking and defensive strength ratings for all 48 nations.
Here is how every team stacks up.
Visit our 2026 World Cup hub for lineups, depth charts and more.
If you're looking for outright winner odds rather than team stats, check out our 2026 World Cup Winner Odds.
We also break down the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot odds if you're looking at individual goal scorers.
Full Tournament Projections: All 48 Teams Ranked by Projected Goals
The table below covers all eight rounds, with projected goals and assists weighted by each team's probability of advancing. Spain leads all teams at 14.7 projected goals, a product of their attacking quality and 6.9 expected games played, the highest in the field.
| Team | Group | Win Tournament | Reach Final | Reach QF | Exp Games | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | H | 21.1% | 35.6% | 78.1% | 6.9 | 14.7 | 8.5 |
| France | I | 15.7% | 28.4% | 72.4% | 6.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 |
| England | L | 14.7% | 26.8% | 71.0% | 6.5 | 12.2 | 8.0 |
| Brazil | C | 11.6% | 21.7% | 67.2% | 6.4 | 11.8 | 7.7 |
| Argentina | J | 10.0% | 19.4% | 64.2% | 6.2 | 11.3 | 7.4 |
| Germany | E | 6.3% | 13.5% | 56.1% | 5.9 | 11.3 | 6.9 |
| Portugal | K | 8.1% | 16.5% | 60.1% | 6.0 | 10.6 | 7.2 |
| Belgium | G | 2.5% | 6.3% | 40.6% | 5.4 | 8.8 | 5.8 |
| Netherlands | F | 2.8% | 7.0% | 41.7% | 5.4 | 8.2 | 5.9 |
| Switzerland | B | 0.8% | 2.4% | 19.4% | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 |
| Norway | I | 1.4% | 4.0% | 28.6% | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 |
| Uruguay | H | 0.8% | 2.6% | 21.6% | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 |
| Colombia | K | 0.9% | 2.9% | 23.6% | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.5 |
| USA | D | 0.7% | 2.2% | 17.2% | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| Mexico | A | 0.3% | 1.3% | 10.3% | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.6 |
| Morocco | C | 0.5% | 1.6% | 12.5% | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| Turkey | D | 0.4% | 1.6% | 13.3% | 4.5 | 5.7 | 4.3 |
| Croatia | L | 0.3% | 1.1% | 9.6% | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Japan | F | 0.3% | 1.1% | 9.0% | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| Austria | J | 0.1% | 0.4% | 7.0% | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| Canada | B | 0.1% | 0.6% | 7.9% | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| Ecuador | E | 0.2% | 0.7% | 7.9% | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| Egypt | G | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.3% | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Algeria | J | 0.0% | 0.3% | 5.5% | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| South Korea | A | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.5% | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| Czech Republic | A | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.2% | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| Scotland | C | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.8% | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| Senegal | I | 0.1% | 0.4% | 6.3% | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| Sweden | F | 0.1% | 0.4% | 6.1% | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| Bosnia | B | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.2% | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| Paraguay | D | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.7% | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| Ivory Coast | E | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.0% | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Iran | G | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Ghana | L | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| DR Congo | K | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| Saudi Arabia | H | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| Australia | D | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| South Africa | A | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| Qatar | B | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Tunisia | F | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Uzbekistan | K | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Panama | L | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| New Zealand | G | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Cabo Verde | H | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Jordan | J | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Iraq | I | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Haiti | C | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Curacao | E | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
2026 World Cup Group Stage Projections
The tables below cover each team's three group stage games. Projected points, goals and assists are RotoWire's game-by-game projections aggregated across the group stage. Group win percentage and qualification percentage reflect the probability of finishing first and in the top two respectively.
For a deeper dive into all 12 groups in 2026 World Cup, we previewed each of them from Group A to Group L.
Group A Projections: Mexico, South Korea, Czech Republic, South Africa
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 44.8% | 79.8% | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.8 |
| South Korea | 22.3% | 53.4% | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Czechia | 26.6% | 51.5% | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| South Africa | 6.2% | 15.4% | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
Mexico are clear group favorites with a 45% group win probability and 80% chance of advancing. The race for second is genuinely open. South Korea and Czechia project nearly identically at 4.2 expected points and 3.5-3.6 projected goals, separated by a fraction across the three games.
Group B Projections: Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia, Qatar
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 48.0% | 86.2% | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 |
| Canada | 31.1% | 70.9% | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| Bosnia | 18.3% | 38.4% | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| Qatar | 2.5% | 4.5% | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
Switzerland lead Group B and project 5.2 goals over three games, one of the higher group stage totals in the field. Canada are comfortable second favorites at roughly 70% to qualify, though Bosnia are close enough at 40% to make the second spot competitive. Canada and Bosnia project identical goals at 3.6 despite Bosnia carrying a higher assists projection, reflecting a more creative but less clinical attacking profile.
Group C Projections: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, Haiti
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 76.5% | 97.1% | 7.1 | 7.4 | 4.1 |
| Morocco | 15.6% | 75.1% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 |
| Scotland | 7.6% | 43.2% | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Haiti | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Brazil project 7.4 group stage goals, the second highest behind Germany, with above a 95% qualification rate. Morocco are a firm second at 75% to qualify and project 5.0 goals, making Group C one of the higher-scoring groups in the draw. Scotland have better than a 40% chance of advancing, realistic enough that their matches carry genuine knockout-round implications.
Group D Projections: USA, Turkey, Paraguay, Australia
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 41.6% | 75.4% | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Turkiye | 30.4% | 60.5% | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 |
| Paraguay | 17.5% | 40.8% | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| Australia | 10.5% | 23.3% | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
The USA are group favorites on home soil, projecting 4.5 goals and a 75% qualification rate. Turkiye are closer than the market implies, 30% group win and 60% to qualify, with 4.2 projected goals and just 0.2 expected points separating them from the USA at the top. Paraguay and Australia are a significant step down in projected output.
Group E Projections: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Curacao
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 72.1% | 97.1% | 7.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 |
| Ecuador | 17.2% | 72.9% | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| Ivory Coast | 10.3% | 57.9% | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| Curacao | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Germany project 7.9 group stage goals, the highest of any team in the tournament, with a 97% qualification rate. The second spot is competitive: Ivory Coast project slightly more goals than Ecuador (3.5 vs 3.3) despite a lower qualify probability (57.9% vs 72.9%), reflecting a better attacking projection that doesn't fully overcome the points gap.
Group F Projections: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 49.9% | 84.6% | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| Japan | 24.9% | 58.1% | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| Sweden | 18.8% | 44.1% | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| Tunisia | 6.3% | 13.2% | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
Netherlands project 5.3 goals and sit right at 50% for group win, one of the more attacking group favorites in the draw. Japan are second favorites at 58% to qualify, with Sweden close behind at 44% making this one of the more competitive second-place races in the group stage. Sweden's 3.5 projected goals nearly match Japan's 3.9 despite the points gap.
Group G Projections: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 66.6% | 93.3% | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 |
| Egypt | 16.3% | 53.0% | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| Iran | 14.6% | 47.1% | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| New Zealand | 2.5% | 6.7% | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
Belgium are dominant at 65% group win and project 6.3 goals, the third highest group stage total in the field. Egypt and Iran are nearly identical across every metric: 16.3% vs 14.6% group win, 53.0% vs 47.1% to qualify, 3.2 vs 3.3 projected goals. The second place finish in Group G may come down to a single result.
Group H Projections: Spain, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, Cabo Verde
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 79.1% | 97.6% | 7.4 | 7.6 | 4.4 |
| Uruguay | 16.4% | 79.1% | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.2% | 18.2% | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Cabo Verde | 1.3% | 5.1% | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
Spain have the highest group win probability in the tournament at 79% and project 7.6 group stage goals, the third highest in the field, with 7.4 expected points. Uruguay are a comfortable second at 79% to qualify, projecting 4.5 goals and 2.9 assists. Spain's defensive projection is also the stingiest in the tournament, making Group H the most lopsided on paper.
Group I Projections: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 66.8% | 94.2% | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 |
| Norway | 22.8% | 72.9% | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| Senegal | 9.1% | 33.9% | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Iraq | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
France lead Group I at 94% to qualify with 5.9 projected goals. Norway are one of the most underrated teams in the draw, 72.9% to qualify and 4.6 projected goals, the highest qualify probability and goal projection of any second-place team in the tournament. Erling Haaland's presence gives Norway an attacking ceiling that their market odds don't fully reflect.
Group J Projections: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 74.6% | 97.1% | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| Austria | 14.4% | 58.2% | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 |
| Algeria | 9.4% | 43.6% | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| Jordan | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
Argentina project 6.3 goals and a 97% qualification rate, essentially certain to advance. Austria hold the edge for second, above 55% to qualify versus Algeria's 44%, but Algeria project marginally more goals (4.2 vs 4.1), the closest attacking contest between second and third place in the entire draw.
Group K Projections: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 66.7% | 95.1% | 6.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 |
| Colombia | 25.3% | 78.5% | 5.2 | 5.0 | 3.1 |
| DR Congo | 6.2% | 21.4% | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Uzbekistan | 1.8% | 5.0% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
Portugal lead Group K at 95% to qualify with 6.1 projected goals. Colombia are one of the most attack-friendly second-place teams in the tournament, 78.5% to qualify and 5.0 projected goals, the highest goal projection of any second-place finisher in the field. DR Congo at 21.4% to qualify are worth monitoring for fantasy purposes.
Group L Projections: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
| Team | Win Group | Qualify | Exp Pts | Proj Goals | Proj Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 73.4% | 97.7% | 6.9 | 6.1 | 4.0 |
| Croatia | 18.1% | 65.0% | 4.7 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| Ghana | 6.5% | 30.9% | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Panama | 2.0% | 6.4% | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
England project the highest qualification probability of any team in the tournament at 98%, with 6.1 goals and 4.0 projected assists across the group stage. Croatia are a clear second at 65% to qualify, projecting 4.6 goals and 3.1 assists, the highest assist projection of any second-place team in the draw. Ghana at 30.9% are a realistic third-place threat.
