DraftKings World Cup DFS Showdown: Spain vs. Argentina Final Picks for Sunday, July 19

The final is a single-game Showdown, and it's a tight one: Spain are the favorite, but Lionel Messi is the one player who can decide the whole slate on his own.

The World Cup final is a single-game Showdown on DraftKings: one Captain at 1.5 times the points and salary, five FLEX, a $50,000 cap, and at least one player from each side. Spain come in as the favorite at around 41 percent to Argentina's 27 percent with a big draw number, and the total sits near two-and-a-half goals, so like the semifinals this projects as a cagey, low-scoring game rather than a shootout. In a final that could turn on one set piece or one Messi moment, it's important to get the goalscorer correct.

The read is Messi against Spain's game script. He grades as the top play in the game on both floor and ceiling, with Yamal right behind him on the favored side, so the captain call really comes down to those two. Argentina have shuffled their lineup through the knockouts, so confirm who starts around Messi before lock.

Come talk lineups in the RotoWire Discord before lock. Here's how I'm attacking it.

WORLD CUP MATCHES (ET)

• 3:00 pm: Spain vs. Argentina

For detailed stats and odds, check out the DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: World Cup Cheat Sheet.

CAPTAIN CANDIDATES

Lionel Messi (ARG, $12,400)

Messi is the top play in the game and the captain to build around. He led the tournament with 42 corners and free kicks and gets his own shots at better than two-and-a-half per 90, so he carries both the highest floor and the highest ceiling on the board at +155 to score. Argentina are the underdog, but this is Messi. It doesn't matter. There are ways to fade him, but I won't be doing it.

Lamine Yamal (ESP, $9,800)

Yamal is right behind Messi and the way to captain the favored side. He pairs a share of Spain's set pieces when Baena is off the pitch with his own shots at close to two per 90, so his floor can reach elite levels even if he didn't show it last game. Spain's edge gives him the better game script and is a pivot if you'd rather captain a Spain win.

Mikel Oyarzabal (ESP, $10,200)

Oyarzabal is the goal-odds captain with the thinner floor. He has the best number to score in the game at +165 as Spain's striker, but so much of his points ride on the goal, so he's the ceiling pivot rather than the safe captain. Alex Baena ($8,400) is the set-piece floor captain if you want a safer route, but his minutes aren't guaranteed more than 70. He has been taking both sides of Spain's corners, so there are reasons to take that route.

FLEX PLAYS

In a showdown, anyone can be captained in order to get different. Thinking win and a clean sheet? That's goalkeeper. Think Porro can keep scoring with another clean sheet? There you go. Maybe someone like Nico Williams comes off the bench and scores. $100,000 is up for grabs at the top in the main DraftKings contest, but to win that by yourself, you'll need to be very different.

Value. Pedro Porro ($8,000) and Alex Baena ($8,400) carry the best floors outside the captains. Porro pushes high from right-back for crosses and chances, a rare floor from the back, and Baena's corners and free kicks give him a dead-ball floor most of this pool can't match. Dani Olmo ($6,400) sees the ball in the final third for Spain. Julian Alvarez ($7,600) is the second Argentina goal threat behind Messi, and Alexis Mac Allister ($6,000) and Enzo Fernandez ($7,000) are the other Argentina midfielders. Rodri ($4,200) and Fabian Ruiz ($4,000) are the cheaper Spain options.

Punts and salary savers. Nahuel Molina ($4,000) hasn't shown much of a floor from full-back in the World Cup, and that's unlikely to change in this game. The minimum-tier center-backs in Pau Cubarsi ($3,200), Aymeric Laporte ($3,400) and Cristian Romero ($3,600) are the pay-downs that let you fit Messi plus a stud, with a clean sheet no lock. 

Unai Simon and Emiliano Martinez are plenty reasonable if this projects to be a lower scoring game. If your game script features a clean sheet, take a goalkeeper.

SUGGESTED BUILD

One example within the $50,000 cap that captains the game's top play and stacks the final:

• CPT: Lionel Messi ($18,600)
• FLEX: Lamine Yamal ($9,800)
• FLEX: Pedro Porro ($8,000)
• FLEX: Alexis Mac Allister ($6,000)
• FLEX: Aymeric Laporte ($3,400)
• FLEX: Pau Cubarsi ($3,200)

That comes to $49,000, gets both teams in, and pairs Messi's captain ceiling with Spain's Yamal and Porro plus a cheap Argentina correlation piece in Mac Allister. For the favored-side pivot, captain Yamal instead and open cap for Baena. For the goal ceiling, captain Oyarzabal.