DraftKings World Cup DFS Showdown: England vs. Argentina Semifinal Picks for Wednesday, July 15

A single-game Showdown for the England vs. Argentina semifinal, a tight, low-scoring projection where Lionel Messi stands alone at the top.

Wednesday's semifinal is a single-game Showdown on DraftKings: one Captain at 1.5 times the points and salary, five FLEX, a $50,000 cap, and at least one player from each side. This one grades even tighter than Tuesday's, with England around 36 percent and Argentina around 32 percent, a big draw number, and a total below two-and-a-half goals. It projects as a cagey, low-scoring game that could hinge on one moment, which raises the value of set-piece involvement and getting the correct goalscorer or goalkeeper.

Unlike the France-Spain side of the bracket, there is a clear top play in this game: Lionel Messi separates from the field on both floor and ceiling. After him it bunches up, and the England midfield is the next tier. England have rotated their attack through the tournament, so confirm who starts around Kane before lock. Lineups will firm up as the semifinal approaches.

Come talk lineups in the RotoWire Discord before lock. Here's how I'm attacking it.

WORLD CUP MATCHES (ET)

• 3:00 pm: England vs. Argentina

For detailed stats and odds, check out the DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: World Cup Cheat Sheet.

CAPTAIN CANDIDATES

Lionel Messi (ARG, $12,000)

Messi is the clear top play in the game and the captain to build around, and he'll unsurprisingly be the most popular one. He pairs the best set-piece workload on the board, 36 corners and free kicks across the tournament, with his own shots at better than three per 90, so his captain floor holds up even in a low-scoring game and the ceiling is untouchable at +140 to score. He costs the most, but in a game this tight the safest points come through him.

Jude Bellingham (ENG, $10,400)

Bellingham is the way to captain the England side. He carries a decent floor and gets his own shots at close to two per 90, so if England are going to produce a big fantasy score, it could run through him again after his clutch goals in recent games. But because of those goals, his popularity could go even higher in this game.

Harry Kane (ENG, $10,000)

Kane is the other option for England. He has the best goal odds at +140, but his floor lags the midfielders since so much of it rides on goal involvements, so he's the tournament swing rather than the safe captain. Kane's floor has dipped in the five-point range, while Bellingham's has eclipsed 10 points due to an all-around DFS game that features fouls drawn.

Declan Rice ($7,800) is the opposite profile of Kane, a floor captain with 32 corners and free kicks, and Anthony Gordon ($8,000) is the lower-owned England attacker.

FLEX PLAYS

The captain candidates of course make strong FLEX plays at full salary, and the best builds plays into game theory.

Value. Declan Rice ($7,800) is the piece the build leans on due to his floor. His 32 corners and free kicks across the tournament give him a dead-ball floor most of this pool can't match, and he comes cheaper than the England attackers. He should be over the illness that kept him to just 45 minutes last game.

Bukayo Saka ($9,200, five set pieces) and Anthony Gordon ($8,000) are the other England midfielders, and Julian Alvarez ($7,400) is the second Argentina goal threat behind Messi. Saka didn't start last game, but figures to have at least 70 minutes in his tank for this game. Meanwhile, Gordon has stolen the role from Marcus Rashford and seems possible to go 90 minutes again.

Enzo Fernandez ($6,800), Alexis Mac Allister ($6,600), Rodrigo De Paul ($5,600) and Leandro Paredes ($4,400) are the cheaper Argentina midfielders who hold limited floors, and Elliot Anderson ($6,200) is the value England option. Mac Allister is probably the best value of the Argentina options.

Punts and salary savers. Nahuel Molina ($3,200) is cheap for a full-back, yet there's no guarantee he starts. The minimum-tier center-backs in John Stones ($3,000), Marc Guehi ($3,400) and Ezri Konsa ($3,600) are salary savers that let you fit Messi plus another stud, with a clean sheet no sure thing. Jordan Pickford and Emiliano Martinez are both viable depending on what the rest of your build looks like.

SUGGESTED BUILD

One example within the $50,000 cap that captains the clear top play:

• CPT: Lionel Messi ($18,000)
• FLEX: Jude Bellingham ($10,400)
• FLEX: Declan Rice ($7,800)
• FLEX: Julian Alvarez ($7,400)
• FLEX: Nahuel Molina ($3,200)
• FLEX: John Stones ($3,000)

That comes to $49,800, gets both teams in, and pairs Messi's captain ceiling with England's best floors in Bellingham and Rice, and a cheap Argentina correlation piece in Molina. For the England-side pivot, captain Bellingham instead and open cap for Saka or Gordon. For the goal ceiling, captain Kane.