Wurth 400 Preview: The Monster Mile

Dover Motor Speedway plays host to this week's Wurth 400. This is the one and only race of 2023 at the concrete oval in Delaware. For many years this track has hosted two annual NASCAR Cup Series events, but schedule shuffling reduced that to just one event last season. Dover International Speedway is also known as the "Monster Mile", and for good reason. It's like a super-sized Bristol Motor Speedway, with similar banking and track surface all in a one-mile oval. Dover has a short track feel, but produces the high 160+ mph speeds of the larger tracks on the circuit. The high speeds are due to the 24 degree banking in all turns and the extreme grip that the concrete paved surface provides. It's a lightning fast track, and it produces some exciting, side-by-side racing. As many drivers have shown in the past, it takes a good balance of aggression and patience to tame the monster. It's this balance that the drivers will need to master if they hope to conquer the competition and this fierce track. With this being the first and only race of the season at the Monster Mile, the learning curve will be steep this weekend. Those teams that can adapt the fastest after the green flag drops will be the ones to succeed this Sunday afternoon. This is race number 11 of the season, so urgency to better one's position in the driver standings will pick up the pace at the Dover oval. We'll surely see some of that urgency in the racing this Sunday afternoon at the Monster Mile.

Since this is our lone race of the season at Dover, we need to check in briefly with the electronic loop stats from this high-banked oval. Current trends at this track should hold pretty true to form this weekend since teams have now been racing with the new generation stock car for a season and a half now. The Dover oval is such a unique animal that those who have historically performed well here tend to edge out those current streaking drivers. They are easily identified in the table below. The loop stats cover the last 34 races at Dover Motor Speedway.

The Monster Mile had been a track of manufacturer parity since about 2016. However, Chevrolet drivers changed that the last two seasons. Drivers from the bowtie camp have won the last two races at the Monster Mile, leaving Ford and Toyota scrambling to catch up. Chevrolet and Toyota drivers have won six of the last seven events at Dover. However, Ford has just one win in those last seven races at this one-mile track. 

In this event one year ago, we witnessed Chase Elliott rise to strength late and upstage a seemingly stronger Ross Chastain to capture the win in the Drydene 400. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet led the final 53 laps of that event en route to capturing his second-career Dover victory. The Elliott-Chastain duel was really the main storyline of that spring afternoon. Kyle Busch was also strong in his former No. 18 JGR Toyota, leading 103 laps on the day before fading to seventh-place by the checkered flag. It will be interesting to see if the bowtie brand can hold onto that success in light of some of the parity we've witnessed this season. It would seem to be an uphill battle for drivers like Joey Logano, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick whom all have visited victory lane since March. We'll outline the drivers who will likely dominate and a few others about to make surprise runs at Dover Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson hopes went up in smoke during a late-race crash at Talladega last week, but he'll hit the reset button at Dover this Sunday. He has just 14-career starts at the Monster Mile, but they're starts that are packed full with results. Larson has one victory, three runner-up finishes, seven Top-5 and 11 Top-10 finishes in those efforts. That puts his average finish at a sparkling 6.9 at this facility. Larson has led 899-career laps at the Monster Mile, so he's quite used to racing up front here. With two wins and three Top-5 finishes on ovals one-mile or less in size already this season, the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has to be seen as the top contender to win the Wurth 400.

Chase Elliott – The No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team has welcomed back Elliott for the last two races, and now he should be starting to find his groove again. The young driver has made 12-career starts at Dover Motor Speedway, and they've been eye-popping efforts. Elliott has nine Top-5 finishes in those starts, including two victories. The last of those wins came in this event one year ago. He led 73 total laps and captured the victory in last season's Drydene 400. Elliott may just be getting back up to speed but this is a track that can propel him back to excellence. With a 9.0 average finish and career 75-percent Top-5 rate at the Monster Mile, you'll find few drivers who are better here.   

Kyle Busch – Busch grabbed his second victory of the season this past Sunday at Talladega. Now the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet will set his sights on the Monster Mile. Busch is a three-time winner at Dover, and he sports a staggering 38-percent Top-5 rate at the track. His lofty 62-percent Top-10 rate at the one-mile oval is also among the best in NASCAR. Busch led 103 laps and finished seventh-place in this event one year ago. With over 1,300-career laps led at Dover, only Kevin Harvick has led more laps here among active drivers. Considering how well Busch is racing at the moment, we have to give him contender status this weekend at the Monster Mile.  

William Byron – Byron has been a pretty good short track performer thus far this season. With close to 200 laps led and a victory at Phoenix, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has been dangerous on these smaller ovals. Byron will be making just his ninth-career Dover start this Sunday, so the statistical sample size is a bit small. The young driver has a pair of fourth-place finishes in two of his last three starts at the Dover oval. Byron has qualified well on these short tracks this season with an average start of 4.7. That is half the battle sometimes, just getting good track position to start these races. He should be racing among the leaders in the Wurth 400 and in contention for the win.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster hasn't been a major performer at the Monster Mile, but he's been the most consistent driver of this season. Bell has seven Top 10's in the 10 events so far, and that 70-percent rate leads all drivers. He has been equally proficient on all types of ovals to this point, but he's been exceptionally well of late on shorter tracks with his Top 5 at Richmond and win on the Bristol dirt. Bell's career-best performance at Dover to this point was his fourth-place finish in this event one year ago. The notes from that outing will serve Bell and the No. 20 team well this Sunday. He's a good bet for a Top-10 finish or more in Sunday's 400-lap Dover battle.  

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing driver is looking to get back to his Top-10 ways returning to Dover this week. Logano has quite a streak of recent consistency at the Monster Mile coming into the Wurth 400 this Sunday afternoon. Logano has 15-career Top-10 finishes at Dover, and that places his career Top-10 rate at 58-percent at this challenging facility. The driver of the No. 22 Ford enters the Dover race 11th in the driver standings and looking to improve his position for the upcoming Chase. A win at Dover would help in that regard. He has three Top 10's in his last four Monster Mille starts into this event. With a Top 10 at Richmond and runner-up finish at Martinsville recently, it would seem Logano is Top-10 bound in the Wurth 400.

Martin Truex Jr. – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is coming off a poor Talladega finish and looking to rebound coming to Delaware. The one-mile Dover oval has been one of his better tracks during his 17-season NASCAR Cup Series career. Truex has four pole positions, three victories and 18 Top-10 finishes in his 32 starts at the Monster Mile. That works out to a strong 11.8 average finish for his career at the Delaware oval. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has experienced some inconsistency this season, but it's been turning more positive of late, especially on the short tracks. An 11th-place finish at Richmond, seventh-place finish on Bristol dirt and most recent third-place finish at Martinsville could likely foreshadow the potential for this driver and team this weekend.

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran was fantastic in this event one year ago. Chastain led 86 laps and scrambled to an impressive third-place finish at Dover International Speedway last season. It was by far his best Cup Series performance at the track, and it left a big impression heading into this season. Despite some recent inconsistency, Chastain comes to Delaware a lofty second in the driver standings this weekend. His recent third-place Richmond performance is a good reminder of the No. 1 Chevrolet team's capabilities on smaller ovals. The Monster Mile's high banking, high speeds and one-mile size should play well to Chastain's abilities. He proved it with his performance here on year ago.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Dover & solid upside

Kevin Harvick – One of the biggest wildcards in the deck is Harvick and his No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team. He's a three-time winner at the Monster Mile, and all of those victories have come since the 2015 season. Harvick rides an eight-race Dover Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. That brings his career Top-10 total at Dover to 23 for a strong 55-percent rate. Our optimism lies in the fact that Harvick and his team have been strong performers on smaller ovals this season. Top 5's at Richmond and Phoenix, followed by a Top 10 on Bristol dirt are a good body of work on tracks one-mile in size and less. With 42-career stars, you won't find a more experienced driver on the high banks of Dover than Harvick.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is looking to shake off a two-race slump this week at the Monster Mile. This oval hasn't been his best in his brief Cup Series career, but Reddick did capture a strong eighth-place finish at Dover two seasons ago. He'll play off that experience in Sunday's Wurth 400. The 23XI Racing driver had a runner-up recently on the high banks of Bristol, albeit on a dirt surface, and he nabbed a strong third-place finish on the similar sized oval in Phoenix. Reddick is a driver with a lot of short track appeal, so Dover's one-mile distance and high banking play to his strengths as a driver. In his Xfinity Series career Reddick grabbed a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last four starts at Dover in that racing series.

Chase Briscoe – One of the hottest drivers in the Cup Series coming to Delaware this weekend is surprisingly Briscoe and his No. 14 team. The young driver is riding a three-race Top-5 streak into the Wurth 400. Two of those Top 5's have come on shorter tracks (Bristol and Martinsville). It seems Briscoe and his team have hit on some momentum and are surging coming into the Monster Mile. The young driver has just two prior Cup starts at Dover International Speedway, but the last of those was a respectable 13th-place finish in this event one year ago. Given how well Briscoe has been performing of late, we expect he and the No. 14 team will be even better than that in this 400-lap Dover battle.  

Josh Berry – Alex Bowman was shockingly injured Tuesday evening in a sprint car crash and has fractured vertebrae. He will miss the next three-to-four weeks with this injury and Hendrick Motorsports will once again call on Berry to fill in as relief driver. Bowman has had a lot of recent success at the Monster Mile and his team's experience will give Berry a leg up in relief. Bowman has a win and five Top 5's in his last six Dover starts. Berry has been capable on the short tracks this season with Top 10's at Phoenix and Richmond. The No. 48 Chevrolet team have been in a groove for much of the campaign, and we don't see that changing in the Wurth 400.

Denny Hamlin – After Hamlin's fourth-place finish at Martinsville Speedway recently, we feel compelled to believe that his short track struggles may be ending this season. That recent performance on a historically strong oval in his resume is very reassuring heading into the Wurth 400. Hamlin has been a career-long performer at the Monster Mile with one win, 14 Top-10 finishes and nearly 700 laps led. The 44-percent Top-10 rate is above norms and good indicator of potential for the No. 11 Toyota team. Three of Hamlin's last five Dover starts have netted Top-10 finishes, including a victory in 2020. There's plenty of potential for a good performance for Hamlin and team in this Sunday's event.

Michael McDowell – While not over impressive, McDowell has still been steady on the smaller ovals in 2023. The one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes have led to a respectable 12.7 average finish on the short tracks this season. The Front Row Motorsports veteran has never visited the Top 10 at the Monster Mile, but his respectable 17th-place finish in this event one year ago was a career-best Dover finish and a sign of better things to come here for the No. 34 Ford team. Given what McDowell has done to this point in the season, and his performance last year at Dover, we expect him to hold the lead lap for the full 400 laps and collect a new career-best finish at the Monster Mile this weekend.  

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – Coming off seventh-place (Martinsville) and second-place (Talladega) finishes, it might seem odd to see Blaney's name among the slow down list. However, we believe fading the Penske Racing youngster is the right move at the Monster Mile. This one-mile oval has been a real puzzle for Blaney. In 12-career starts he's only managed two Top-10 finishes (17-percent) and his average finish of 19.5 is less than impressive. Blaney hasn't cracked the Top-10 at this track since 2018 and his performance in this event one year ago (26th-place) in the new generation stock car, gives us many concerns ahead of Sunday's Wurth 400.

Noah Gragson – Young drivers making their Cup Series debut at Dover typically have a tough time. The racing here is so unlike anywhere else due to the high speeds and close confines. Gragson will be making his debut at the track in Sunday's Wurth 400. While he has seven-career Xfinity Series starts at the Monster Mile, that experience pales when compared to racing here in a Cup car. Short tracks have been Gragson's biggest struggle this season with finishes of 29th-, 37th- and 30th-place on ovals one-mile in size or less. Gragson is a young driver to fade this weekend in weekly lineup and salary cap based leagues.    

Erik Jones – Jones has had some success at the Monster Mile, 30-percent Top-10 rate and 13.6 average finish. In fact, the Legacy Motor Club driver finished an impressive 10th-place in this event one year ago. However, with a new season has come several struggles. Jones has just two Top-10 finishes to this point and enters Dover weekend a distant 25th-place in the driver standings. A big part of those struggles have come on short tracks. Finishes of 21st-, 31st- and 31st-place have been Jones' body of work on the ovals one-mile in size and less. That's not a very reassuring stat entering Sunday's Wurth 400. Despite the past success Jones has had on the high banks of Dover, we recommend the bench this week.            

Daniel Suarez – Despite Suarez and the No. 99 team's successes on the large ovals this season, he's had a lot of trouble with the short tracks. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has finishes of 22nd-, 23rd- and 17th-place on the small tracks for an average finish of 20.7. That's below the level we expect for this driver and team. Suarez has always been reasonably good on Dover International Speedway. His five Top 10's work out to a very respectable 50-percent rate and his 13.3 average finish is equally as good. However, current performance indicates that Suarez has little chance of hitting those marks in Sunday's Wurth 400.