This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
South Point 400
Location: Las Vegas, Nev.
Course: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile oval
Laps: 267
NASCAR South Point 400 Preview
Last week's Charlotte road course visit trimmed the field of championship contenders down to eight, and the first chance to claim a spot in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series finale is this week's South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It is one of three chances for those eight drivers to make their case for a shot at the title with little room for a slow start. Kyle Larson won a week ago for the sixth time this season, and he heads to Las Vegas looking for his third straight victory at the 1.5-mile oval. He will face stiff competition, though. Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney all sit outside the top four positions hoping to claw their way forward. Only 40 points separate the eight contenders, and a mere 11 points separate Logano in eighth from William Byron in the fourth and final transfer slot. With such tight competition, drivers and teams must be at their best with no room for mistakes as a chance to race for the championship is officially on the line this week at Las Vegas.
Key Stats at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 33
- Winners from pole: 1
- Winners from top-5 starters: 14
- Winners from top-10 starters: 20
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
- Fastest race: 154.849 mph
Previous 10 Las Vegas Winners
2024 spring - Kyle Larson
2023 fall - Kyle Larson
2023 spring - William Byron
2022 fall - Joey Logano
2022 spring - Alex Bowman
2021 fall - Denny Hamlin
2021 spring - Kyle Larson
2020 fall - Kurt Busch
2020 spring - Joey Logano
2019 fall - Martin Truex Jr.
While competitive racing has improved recently at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, track position is still and advantage. Eight of the last nine races at the track were won by a driver starting inside the top 10 and the last four were won by someone starting inside the top five. In order to have the best chance possible at winning Sunday, qualifying well and commanding the race from the start is a must. In order to do that, it is essential that teams hit their setups early in the weekend. While several drivers improved their cars during the race in March to move forward from their starting spots to finish in the top 10, they were all too far behind Larson who had the pace from the beginning. While there were several unscheduled cautions in March, this track still produces several long green-flag runs each race, which is where those teams who get things right early get ahead. Teams must be able to make adjustments throughout the race, though. The cars still tend to be aerodynamically sensitive. That sensitivity changes handling characteristics for drivers in traffic versus not, and teams that make the right adjustments at the right times can gain ground quickly.
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DraftKings Value Picks for the South Point 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,500
William Byron - $10,800
Christopher Bell - $10,300
Tyler Reddick - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $9,800
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Ryan Blaney - $9,300
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Kyle Busch - $8,500
Ty Gibbs - $8,300
Alex Bowman - $8,100
Chris Buescher - $7,700
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Daniel Suarez - $7,200
Noah Gragson - $6,900
Erik Jones - $6,800
Carson Hocevar - $6,400
NASCAR DFS Picks for the South Point 400
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Joey Logano - $9,800
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,000
Chris Buescher - $7,700
Erik Jones - $6,800
Austin Dillon - $6,200
Kyle Larson (DK $11,500, FD $14,000) has been the best at Las Vegas recently. He won the last two races at the track and is roaring into this week on the heels of a road course win at Charlotte. He has twice as many wins as any other driver this season, and his Las Vegas tally includes three wins, two runner-ups, and three other top-10s from his last nine visits. No driver has swept victories at a track or won in back-to-back races yet this season, but Larson could check both of those boxes if he wins again this weekend. Joey Logano (DK $9,800, FD $11,000) had some luck swing his way after being promoted back into the playoffs after Alex Bowman's disqualification at Charlotte. The Team Penske driver will welcome the unexpected outcome after dealing with his share of bad luck earlier this year. Las Vegas is a place the former champion can excel at, too. He is a three-time Las Vegas winner with 13 top-10s from 22 starts. He also started on pole in two of the last three Las Vegas races. Another driver who has had his fair share of bad luck this season is Martin Truex Jr. (DK $9,000, FD $9,500). While it has been wise for fantasy players to avoid him recently, this week's venue makes it a good time to reconsider moving him to the safer option. Truex is a two-time Las Vegas winner who finished in the top 10 in 13 of the last 14 races at the track. The retiring former champion was also third last month at Kansas, which is a track that compares well with Las Vegas. Despite a rough 2024, this is a relatively safe week for managers to select him.
Further down the price list, Chris Buescher (DK 7,700, FD $7,500) appears to be finding his groove at this track. He has one top-10 finish from 15 Las Vegas starts, and finished 11th in this race last season. We don't know what he could have done there in March after an early crash took him out of the race, though. If his trend at the track continues this week, Buescher could add another top-10 to his resume. Erik Jones (DK $6,800, FD $6,200) is no stranger to top-10 finishes at Las Vegas. He finished 10th or better in four of his 14 appearances and was 14th there earlier this season. Another top-15 finish this week would be a nice turnaround after crashing out at the road course last week. Finally, Austin Dillon (DK $6,200, FD $5,500) could be a nice in this format due to his average finish of 15.9 at this track. That number comes with two top-fives and three top-10s. Dillon also finished 16th there in March after starting 19th.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Christopher Bell - $10,300
Ross Chastain - $8,800
Kyle Busch - $8,500
Alex Bowman - $8,100
Brad Keselowski - $7,900
Carson Hocevar - $6,400
Christopher Bell (DK $10,300, FD $13,000) has been remarkably consistent with seven finishes of seventh or better from the last eight races, and could make a reliable anchor for a riskier lineup this week. At Las Vegas he started in the top 10 each of the last five visits with three top-five finishes, including a runner-up finish in this race last year. He starts this penultimate round of the playoffs second in the standings behind Larson, needing to maintain that 13-point advantage through the next three races in order to be one of the championship contenders at Phoenix. Ross Chastain (DK $8,800, FD $9,000) hasn't been nearly as consistent, which is why he missed the playoffs. However, he has been good at this type of 1.5-mile oval with a win three weeks ago at Kansas and a fourth-place result at Las Vegas in March. While his results have been up and down, fantasy players could reasonably expect Chastain to be up this week. Kyle Busch (DK $8,500, FD $10,500) could be another risky option with upside potential. He remains on the hunt for a 2024 victory, but races to do so are running out. The speed has been there for him, but it hasn't happened for him yet. Las Vegas is his home race and he has won there in the past. Despite starting 21st in March, he still led 18 laps, too. His average finish from 26 starts at the track is impressive at 11.2. Perhaps this is the week he makes the breakthrough.
One week after disqualification prevented him from advancing in the playoffs, Alex Bowman (DK $8,100, FD $8,200) should be back to prove a point. The Hendrick driver had been peaking at the right time, and was comfortably through to the next round before his car failed post-race inspection at Charlotte. At Las Vegas, he won in 2022 and claims three top-fives and four top-10s in total. Brad Keselowski (DK $7,900, FD $8,000) is also out of the playoffs and just racing for wins. He has three at Las Vegas and finished fourth in this race last year despite starting 21st. He also finished in the top 15 there this year despite starting 25th. With a better qualifying outcome, Keselowski might have a better chance at another victory, but his last two visits to the track show he can finish well regardless of where he starts. Further down the price list, Carson Hocevar (DK $6,400, FD $5,800) has been rewarding fantasy managers from time to time, too. He enters the weekend 21st in points with three finishes from the last five races of 14th or better. His 15th-place finish at Las Vegas earlier this season suggests that trend will continue, too.
