This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Luck was with Joey Logano this past week as he went from leaving Charlotte thinking he'd been eliminated from the playoffs to winning his way into the championship finale days later at Las Vegas. The two-time series champion started the weekend outside the championship four but had a top-10 car to work with throughout the day. Logano picked up helpful stage points in both of the race's segments, but didn't need them after a fuel-saving stretch in the final portion of the race set up a showdown between he and Christopher Bell. The Joe Gibbs Racing car had been the dominant force all afternoon, but time and laps ran out as Logano stretched his fuel to get to the finish line ahead of Bell's No. 20 Toyota. It was an impressive and gutsy strategy call from some of the best in the business, and it paid off with the No. 22 claiming his fourth Las Vegas win and a shot at winning a third series championship.
Several playoff contenders suffered trouble Sunday, which could force them to be more aggressive as they work the next two weeks to join Logano in the final four at Phoenix. Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney all finished outside of the top 30 on Sunday and now face a sizable gap to overcome in the next two races. A win from any of the seven remaining playoff combatants would change everything, though. In fact, the last four Homestead-Miami Speedway races have been won by current playoff competitors, not least of whom, Christopher Bell, would love nothing more than to repeat his win there last year to blunt the disappointment of just missing out at Las Vegas.
UPGRADE
Joey Logano - One week after thinking he had been eliminated from the playoffs, Logano stormed back to stretch his fuel mileage to claim the first of four championship slots by winning at Las Vegas. It was Logano's fourth victory at the track and came on a day that he didn't have the fastest car. However, he and crew chief Paul Wolfe delivered the prefect strategy to get out front for the final six laps, holding off the charging Christopher Bell at the finish by less than a second. The victory allows him to use the next two races to gear up for Phoenix without having to worry about points. Logano is also a former winner at Homestead, though. He won there in 2018 to win his first series championship and finished eighth at the track last season. This team proved Sunday that they can figure out how to win even when they aren't the most competitive, which is a quality any championship contender should have.
Christopher Bell - For much of Sunday's race, it looked like the win would be giftwrapped and presented to Bell. The No. 20 contender qualified on pole, led 155 total laps, finished second in the first stage and first in the second, but ran out of distance as he chased Logano for the win. In the end, Bell was clearly the faster car, but Logano's fuel-mileage gamble proved to be just too much for Bell to overcome in the final miles. Still, Bell's dominance Sunday puts him in enviable position in the standings. With two races remaining to lock up a spot in the final four, Bell leads the standings with a 42-point margin over the drop zone. Even better, Bell is the defending winner at Homestead. He started 13th and led 26 laps there last season to win and claim a spot in the finale. While nothing is guaranteed, Bell still looks very much like one of the final four drivers that will race for this year's championship.
William Byron - Byron's remarkable run of consistency continued at Las Vegas. The Hendrick Motorsports driver qualified ninth for the race, but spent the majority of the distance running inside the top five, picking up stage points in both segments. He went on to finish the race fourth, which was his fourth consecutive finish inside the top five. Despite Logano's victory and Bell's dominance in the race, Byron still managed to leave with fourth place in the standings in hand. It is a precarious spot sitting on the cutline, but Byron holds a sizable 27-point advantage over fifth. With two races remaining until Phoenix, Byron has to be feeling good about his chances of being one of the final championship contenders. He is a former winner at Homestead, too. Byron won from the 31st position in 2021 and sat on pole the following year. He finished fourth in last year's race.
Alex Bowman - A week removed from being disqualified at Charlotte, Bowman proved he could remain a factor by finishing fifth at Las Vegas. Unfortunately, it would have been a good week for Bowman in the playoffs had the issue at Charlotte not removed him from contention. Bowman qualified third and put together a strategy to race for the win. He and the team executed on that plan but came up short for the victory. Their fifth-place finish was still their eighth top-five of the season and fourth top-10 since the start of the playoffs. Despite playoff elimination through a major miscue, the No. 48 team should still be proud of the season they've delivered. There are still three races they will be using to make a statement, too. At Homestead, Bowman has two top-10s from eight career starts. He finished inside the top 20 in all of his last four visits to the track and will be aiming for his best finish at the circuit this coming week.
Daniel Suarez - Sunday was a great race from Suarez and his Trackhouse Racing team. They qualified just 23rd for the race, but quickly worked their way forward, finishing the second stage inside the top 10. A fuel-saving strategy ultimately got Suarez to the front of the field, but Logano and Bell made it past before the finish. Still, Suarez's third-place finish made him the biggest mover of the race and he led 57 total laps after finally getting into the lead for the first time during the second stage. The third-place finish was also his fourth top-five of the season and his best result since Atlanta. Finishes like Sunday's go a long way toward helping the team through the winter as they work to improve for next season, and the team will be working hard to keep the momentum from Las Vegas rolling through Miami. Suarez has just one prior top-10 at that track, but he finished 16th or better there four of the last five times.
DOWNGRADE
Tyler Reddick - The path to the final four did not start out smoothly for Reddick. Despite started on the front row and winning the first stage, Reddick was involved in a crash, rolling his car through the grass and out of the race. Before the incident it looked as though Reddick might be the best positioned to challenge Bell, but the crash ended the day prematurely. The early exit and minimal points from Sunday's adventure sent Reddick tumbling to sixth in the standings. With two races remaining to make his way into the championship finale, Reddick is 30 points adrift. He will need to maximize points at Homestead, and hope for some bad luck to befall other championship contenders, to make up ground this week. He has never won at the track, but it looks like that might just be a matter of time. He has three top-fives from four Homestead starts, finished third last year, and was the runner-up in 2021.
Chase Elliott - This round of the championship playoffs didn't start well for Elliott, either. The Hendrick Motorsports driver qualified 18th, missed out on stage points in the first segment, and then was involved in the front-stretch crash that ruined several drivers' days in the second. Eventually, Elliott was forced to retire completely from the race and was classified as the 33rd finisher. The frustrating afternoon leaves him last among the championship contenders with two races remaining to win or make up significant ground. Elliott left Las Vegas 53-points behind the top four in points, which makes it look like a win at Homestead or Martinsville will likely be the only way he advances to the finale. That isn't an impossibility, but it would come against Elliott's run of form at Homestead. He has never won there but does have an average finish of 10.7 from eight tries. However, Elliott hasn't finished better than 14th there since 2021.
Ty Gibbs - Sunday might have been a promising day for Gibbs, but it ended in disappointment. Initially, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver qualified inside the top 10 and went on to score stage points in the first segment. Despite continuing to race toward the sharp end of the field throughout much of the day, Gibbs spun late in the final stage. The loss of laps and track position ended up being too much to overcome with less than 70 laps remaining. At the end, Gibbs only recovered to the 30th spot, finishing three laps behind the leaders despite leading 23 laps earlier in the race. While Sunday can still be chalked up to a learning experience, fans are expecting Gibbs to have a series victory by now. He has been racing solely for wins since being eliminated from the championship, but has just one top-five since the playoffs began. Leaving Las Vegas, Gibbs now has consecutive finishes of 30th or worse, which is the worst two-race stretch of the season for him so far.
Denny Hamlin - Despite finishing eighth Sunday, Hamlin still has a lot to be concerned with. The momentum that made him a championship favorite early in the season has been slipping away from in the playoffs. He hasn't won since April and has lately looked more like a top-10 contender versus the top four. However, despite a slow start to the playoffs, Hamlin is back in the top 10 on a regular basis, but improvements will still be required to have a chance at the championship. First, Hamlin has to overcome his 27-point deficit to the top four, then he'll need to figure out how to be the best at Phoenix. Homestead is next in line, though. He is a three-time winner at that track, too. A return to Victory Lane there would assure him of another chance at the title, and he would still have Martinsville to work out any remaining kinks. However, he crashed out of last year's Miami race after leading 31 laps. He cannot afford that this year.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Ryan Blaney - Last weekend was a dismal one for Blaney. The problems started early, too. Just two laps into practice, Blaney suffered a rear-tire failure that sent him spinning into the outside wall. The damage sent him to a back-up car for the remainder of the weekend, and the team never got that car where it needed to be. He failed to qualify and started at the rear of the field, and traffic proved to be detrimental. While racing deeper in the field in the second stage, Blaney was an unfortunate victim of the multi-car crash that sent Reddick rolling through the infield. The damage to Blaney's Ford required significant time for the team to make repairs and Blaney returned to the action several laps down to the leaders. By the team the checkered flag waved, Blaney was eight laps behind and last among the cars still running. He now has a 47-point deficit to overcome in the next two to have a chance at defending his title at Phoenix.
