Instacart 500 Preview: The Desert Jewel

For the second consecutive week we stay out west and head from Nevada to Arizona.  This week NASCAR's top racing series stops at one of the more unique tracks on the circuit, Phoenix Raceway.  The track at Avondale, Ariz., is an irregular "D-shaped" oval with very low, progressive banking in the corners of eight to 11 degrees.  The straights are nearly flat at a lowly three degrees, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners.  

This oval is vastly different than Daytona, Homestead and Las Vegas.  Phoenix boasts the high speeds that borders on intermediate ovals with the close confines of short track racing as well.  As we have witnessed in the last several years, it's often the driver who brings the fastest car to the Arizona desert that walks away with the trophy.  This race is typically marked by dominant performances, and very rarely by late momentum swings that catapult drivers into victory lane.  The driver who has led the most laps at this oval has won four of the last five Phoenix races.  This is a trend that will likely continue this Sunday.

Since we are making our first stop of the season in the Arizona desert this week, we can only really look back on past statistics for Phoenix Raceway.  This style of racing is a big departure from the standard ovals and Daytona that we've spent the first four weeks of the season competing on.  At this point we're tracking trends, but the change of racing style this week demands that we visit the historical numbers with some emphasis.  The recent loop statistics at Phoenix Raceway will be the most important data we will examine this week.  The historical trends at the Phoenix oval are as important as anywhere in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  The loop stats in the table below cover the last 16 years or 32 races at Phoenix Raceway.

This is the first race at the Phoenix oval since last November when NASCAR's top division rolled into the Arizona desert to crown last season's champion.  Chase Elliott would put on a dominant performance and lead 153 of the 312 laps that November afternoon.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet would hold the other three championship contenders at bay as they would finish second- through fourth-place that afternoon, and Elliott would hoist his first Cup Series championship trophy over his head.  Considering that we're just four, short months removed from that race, we have to look very closely at what happened in the Season Finale 500.  That race and its data will be very fresh and relevant to this week's Instacart 500.  Elliott's win gave Chevrolet their first victory at the Phoenix track since 2017 and ended a four-season streak of dominance by both Toyota and Ford at the oval. 

If Toyota hopes to climb back into top status at Phoenix Raceway, their hopes will primarily ride with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin.  The duo has five-combined Phoenix victories and have been the men to beat prior to 2020 at the Desert Jewel.  If Ford hopes to retake the reins of Phoenix, their big hitters will be Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano.  Harvick is a nine-time winner at Phoenix Raceway, and as recently as 2018.  He's dominated no other oval on the circuit as completely as Phoenix Raceway.  Ford's next-best suitor Logano, is a two-time winner at Phoenix, including this event one year ago. 

As for Chevrolet, if they hope to keep control of this track, their hopes will primarily rest with Elliott.  He won the Season Finale 500 last November and will defend his Phoenix crown this weekend.  However, we can't rule out a longer shot Chevy driver making some waves as well.  We'll have to keep a close eye on Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson and William Byron as they too could stir up some trouble for the other manufacturers.  We'll highlight the teams mentioned above, and some others who will be vying for the win at Phoenix Raceway. 

The Contenders – Those in the hunt for the win

Kevin Harvick – Phoenix Raceway is one of Harvick's top statistical ovals.  He's a nine-time winner at the facility, including this event in 2018.  He leads all drivers in the series in laps led at this oval during the last 16 seasons, so clearly Harvick possesses a gift at this one-mile short track.  The veteran driver's No. 4 team at Stewart Haas Racing has gotten off to a decent start this season with two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes thus far.  We'll see if Harvick can turn it up a notch this Sunday at Phoenix Raceway.  The Stewart Haas Racing star carries a staggering 15-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  If there is any track in the schedule to jump start Harvick's winning ways, it's Phoenix.      

Chase Elliott – It's been a tough start to the season for the defending Cup Series champion.  The young driver started last season slow as well, but quickly warmed up when the series visited Phoenix.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet should get a boost in value this week as we're racing on a smaller oval for the first time this season.  We're just four months removed from Elliott's big win in the Season Finale 500 at Phoenix last November.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet led 153 laps that afternoon and stormed to the championship-crowning victory.  The notes from that race will come in handy for this driver and team this weekend.  Elliott has always liked this small oval (60-percent Top-10 rate) and he's led a combined 246 laps in his last two starts at the Arizona track. 

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a two-time Phoenix winner, including this event one year ago.  It marks a surge in performance for Logano at this facility in recent visits.  The Penske Racing star has led a combined 278 laps in his last three starts at Phoenix Raceway.  He also carries a four-race Top-10 streak at the facility into Sunday's action.  Logano's last start at the desert short track netted 125 laps led and an impressive third-place finish in the Season Finale 500 last November.  Considering that there will be no practice or qualifying this weekend, the No. 22 Ford team's notebook from recent Phoenix races should serve them well this Sunday.  Logano is a great candidate to challenge for the win in the Instacart 500.   

Kyle Larson – Coming off the big Las Vegas win, Larson and the No. 5 Chevrolet team have all the momentum rolling into the Arizona desert this week.  The veteran driver carries a string of four Top-6 finishes at this oval into this weekend's Instacart 500.  Larson's performance in this event one year ago netted 2 laps led and a strong fourth-place finish in the Fan Shield 500.  That effort has lifted Larson's career Top-10 rate at Phoenix to a respectable 54-percent.  He also cracks the Top 5 at this oval at a strong 39-percent rate.  It's really surprising that he's not won to this point in his Cup Series career at this race track.  However, that could easily change by Sunday evening this weekend.  Larson and his race team are on a roll right now. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is looking to build on the momentum of his Top-3 finish at Las Vegas last Sunday.  The No. 18 Toyota team isn't completely focused yet, but they're quickly moving in that direction.  Busch is a three-time winner at Phoenix, and two of those victories have come in the last five Phoenix starts.  In fact, he's been zeroed-in at this track for quite some time.  Busch has finished inside the Top 3 in five of his last six starts at the Desert Jewel.  Recent efforts have boosted his Top-10 rate at the Arizona short track to a lofty 71-percent.  Busch has yet to look like a world-beater in his first four starts of the season, but this weekend that could very easily change.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been one of the best short track drivers in the series the last several seasons.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has two-career Phoenix victories to his credit.  The last came in his start here in the Fall of 2019.  Hamlin cracks the Top 5 in 45-percent of his starts at Phoenix Raceway.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 800 laps for his career at Phoenix, and he's usually no worse than a Top-10 finisher.  Hamlin has had a great start to the season with three Top-5 finishes in the first four events of 2021.  He comes to Phoenix Raceway looking to continue building on that momentum as we head into the short track portion of the spring schedule.  He should challenge the Top 5 in Sunday's Instacart 500.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex hasn't exactly started the season in race-winning form.  However, he's slugged it out to third- and sixth-place finishes in the last two events, and he's had the speed to race among the leaders the last two weeks.  Phoenix Raceway hasn't been an oval of dominance for Truex, thus the solid plays tag this week.  He has 12-career Top-10 finishes at this facility, but most have come in recent seasons.  Truex's start at the one-mile Arizona oval last November netted a steady 10th-place finish.  This is much of the reason for our optimism for the Joe Gibbs Racing star this weekend.  He has Top-10 finishes in three of his last four starts at the Desert Jewel.  Truex is not the driver to beat this weekend, but he'll easily be a face inside the Top-10 and maybe the Top-5. 

Brad Keselowski – The veteran driver has a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three starts, and is gathering some momentum heading to the Desert Jewel.  His runner-up finish at Las Vegas this past week shows that the Penske Racing star is heating up as we return to the oval just outside Phoenix.  Keselowski will be making his 24th-career start at this flat Arizona track this weekend.  While his career numbers are lacking a win, Keselowski's recent stats at this oval have been gradually improving.  With 11-career Top-10 finishes the driver of the No. 2 Ford Mustang checks in at a pedestrian 48-percent Top-10 rate at Phoenix Raceway.  However, his start here last November really grabs our attention with a brilliant runner-up effort in the Season Finale 500.  Keselowski has the potential and upside to be one of the big hitters this Sunday, but certainly he'll be a face among the Top 10 by the checkered flag. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Blaney snapped his season-starting slump with a Top-5 finish at Las Vegas this past week.  He'll look to build on that effort in the Arizona desert this week.  Phoenix Raceway has been a bit of a mixed bag for the driver of the No. 12 Ford to this point in his career.  Blaney has two Top 5's and five Top 10's in 10 starts at this facility.  That works out to a somewhat higher than we like 15.7 average finish.  However, if we really focus on what he accomplished last season at Phoenix Raceway, we see that Blaney left this oval with a "good look" last November.  The young driver led 1 lap and finished sixth in the Season Finale 500.  It was Blaney's third Top 10 in his last four Phoenix starts.         

Kurt Busch – Busch has been one of the more consistent finishers in the NASCAR Cup Series at the Phoenix oval over the years.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran is a one-time winner at Phoenix Raceway, and he cracks the Top 10 at a strong 56-percent rate.  That percentage has actually been elevated the past few seasons as Busch has been visiting the Top 10 here better than his career rate.  He finished sixth-place in this event one year ago, and led 4 laps at Phoenix in the fall, but finished just outside the Top 10 in 12th-place.  Busch is looking to build on the foundation of his recent starts at this short track, and looking to capture his third Top-10 finish of the 2021 season.  Busch is a rock-solid fantasy start at the one-mile Arizona oval this week.

William Byron – The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has had himself two incredible weeks of racing.  He grabbed the big win at Homestead two weeks ago, and he followed up with an eighth-place finish at Las Vegas this past weekend.  Byron has quickly climbed up to 11th-place in the championship standings as a result.  Phoenix Raceway gives him another opportunity to shine.  The Arizona oval yielded a steady ninth-place finish to the No. 24 team last November, and that has boosted Byron's Top-10 rate at this facility to a strong 50-percent.  The 13.5 average finish across six-career starts is also at a very good level.  Byron and crew chief Rudy Fugle are currently making some waves, and we expect this driver and team to stay hot in the Instacart 500.    

Aric Almirola – This veteran driver is in a rut right now coming off 30th- and 38th-place finishes the last two weeks.  However, we expect Almirola and the No. 10 SHR team to hit the reset button this weekend at Phoenix Raceway.  Almirola has just six-career Top-10 finishes at this small oval, but the really good news is that five of those have come since 2017 at the desert short track.  He finished eighth here in this event one year ago, and he finished a steady 13th in last November's Season Finale 500.  Almirola's average finish at this facility over his last seven starts is a miniscule 9.6.  We're very optimistic that this good trend line will continue for the Stewart Haas Racing veteran.  A Top-10 finish in Sunday's Instacart 500 is nearly a guarantee. 

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been a bit uneven in his start to the season.  Bell did grab the impressive road course victory at Daytona a few weeks ago, but he was a somewhat unimpressive 20th-place at Homestead.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota rallied and posted a strong seventh-place finish at Las Vegas this past Sunday.  Which Christopher Bell will show up this weekend in Phoenix?  We believe the "good" one.  Bell's two-career starts at the Phoenix oval last year netted 24th- and 17th-place finishes.  However, that was with his former No. 95 team.  This Sunday he'll take on the challenging flat oval with the No. 20 JGR team.  Bell led 259 laps and capture one win at the Arizona track during his Xfinity Series career, and that experience won't be lost this weekend.  Bell is poised for a career-best Phoenix finish in Sunday's Instacart 500.

Matt DiBenedetto – Another slumping driver looking to reverse his fortunes this week is DiBenedetto.  He looked like a Top-10 finisher at Las Vegas this past week but a broken air gun on the final pit stop would rob him of that much-deserved Top-10 finish.  The veteran driver has never been a world-beater at Phoenix Raceway.  In 12-career starts he's mustered only a 22.7 average finish.  However, he began to show some significant improvement at this short track in 2019.  DiBenedetto's last three starts at Phoenix have netted 13th-, 13th- and eighth-place finishes.  The Top 10 came in last November's Season Finale 500.  This driver and team have been fast this season but haven't caught any breaks.  We expect them to make their own luck Sunday at the Phoenix oval.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Alex Bowman – Bowman has been all over the map in this young season with two Top 10's and two finishes outside the Top 25.  Week-to-week consistency right now has been a problem for the No. 48 team.  Bowman's career-story at Phoenix is one of many struggles.  He did once win the pole and lead 194 laps here in 2016, but that performance is the outlier.  Bowman's 10 other Phoenix starts have only netted three Top-20 finishes.  He was a 16th-place finisher here last November and a 14th-place finisher here in this event one year ago.  Bowman carries too high a price tag in salary cap, DFS and weekly lineup leagues to fetch another middle-teens finish this week. 

Cole Custer – 2021 hasn't gotten off to the best of starts for last season's Rookie of the Year.  Four races into the new campaign and Custer is scuffling along with no Top 10's thus far and a distant 19th-place in the driver point standings.  His 23rd- and 25th-place finishes the last two weeks on intermediate ovals are particularly discouraging.  Custer and the No. 41 team will look to hit the reset button this week in the Arizona desert.  The young driver was a mixed bag at this oval last season.  Custer fetched a strong ninth-place in this event one year ago, but he returned last November and struggled to a disappointing 28th-place finish in the Season Finale 500.  Given the lack of practice and qualifying laps this week, we consider it a real risk to deploy Custer in fantasy leagues this Sunday afternoon.   

Bubba Wallace – On the topic of struggling drivers we would be remiss if we didn't mention Wallace and the No. 23 team this week.  Last Sunday's mechanical problem derailed Wallace's hopes for a Top-15 finish at Las Vegas.  Instead, it would be a distant 28th-place finish for the 23XI Racing team at the Vegas oval.  Wallace will look to shake off his slow start to 2021 with a good performance at Phoenix.  In six-career Cup Series starts the young driver has one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes at this facility.  That calculates out to a 19.8 average finish for Wallace at Phoenix.  He's yet to really leave his mark on this oval, and at times he's struggled to finish on the lead lap.  Considering the current struggles of this driver and team, we would recommend laying off any fantasy racing hopes for Wallace in the Instacart 500.  

Ross Chastain – With 17th- and 23rd-place finishes the last two weeks, it's all too clear that Chastain is still adjusting to his new race team at Chip Ganassi Racing.  The season-opening Top 10 at Daytona has almost been forgotten and has been overshadowed by a lot of inconsistency the last three weeks.  Chastain has five-career starts at Phoenix Raceway.  He's yet to crack the Top 20 yet in those previous starts.  The average finish is coming in around 25.8 across those five efforts.  Chastain's last Cup Series start at this facility was a subpar 23rd-place finish in relief of Ryan Newman in this event one year ago.  Chastain still has a lot of things to work out with crew chief Phil Surgen before the No. 42 team can become a dependable fantasy racing asset.