Shane Bieber

Bieber reached 200 frames in a season during 2022 for the second time in his career and was one of the best pitchers in the AL with a 2.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but he ended up making just 21 starts in 2023 after experiencing elbow inflammation in July, marking the second time in three years he's missed a significant chunk of the season. The good news is the right-hander returned for two late-season starts and should have a relatively normal offseason. The not-so-good news is that Bieber took a step back prior to the injury, and he finished the campaign with a 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 107:34 K:BB across 128 innings. Considering he had career worsts in strikeout rate (20.1 percent), hard-hit rate (47.6 percent) and average exit velocity (91.6 MPH), the aforementioned numbers don't look quite so bad. His fastball velocity was also below 92 MPH for the second straight year, down nearly three ticks from 2020. Bieber's track record of success in the majors (3.07 ERA in 114 games over the past five years) is a steadying force and makes him a solid bet to bounce back in 2024, but there are certainly a few worrying trends with his down velocity and injuries over the past few years.

Bieber recovered nicely from the injury-shortened 2021 season to make all of his starts and return to the 200 innings level combining the volume of 2019 and top shelf stats from his Cy Young campaign. If you removed his name from his StatCast profile page, you may not be as interested in the player as he does give up hard contact, does not throw hard and his breaking stuff isn't particularly spinny, yet he has held the league to a sub .230 batting aveage in each of the past four seasons and his strikeout rate has been at least 25% in each of those four seasons. The sum is better than the individual parts here and he is one of just eight starting pitchers with a K-BB% greater than 20% from 2019-2022. He lacks the special fastball of the rest of that octet, but you simply cannot argue with the results and just how great he is pitching with his non-fastball offerings.

Bieber came into 2021 with aplomb after his Cy Young-winning season in 2020. There was some expected regression baked into his projections, but the final results were harsh given the events of the season. Bieber pitched effectively over 16 starts before a shoulder strain in mid-June essentially ended his season as he pitched just six more innings late in the campaign. His 2021 peripherals lineup up rather well with what he was doing in 2019 setting aside the highest walk rate of his career, albeit one at just 8.1%. His pitches still performed well as three of them -- the curve, slider and cutter -- had Whiff rates over 40% last season. His fastball betrayed him as both his expected batting average and slugging percentage were well below the actual numbers. He still pitches in a friendly division, so there should be no reason Bieber cannot return to ace status if the shoulder is healthy.

Bieber followed up his breakout 2019 season by winning the American League Cy Young Award in a unanimous vote. The right-hander was not an MVP finalist alongside teammate Jose Ramirez, but Bieber had a case; he ranked third in all of baseball in fWAR (behind Ramirez and Freddie Freeman) and went 8-1 in 12 starts, carrying a Cleveland rotation that was without Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac for a prolonged stretch. Bieber led the majors in K-BB rate at 34% and held opponents to a .167 average while showcasing some of the best command seen on a baseball field in recent memory. Hitters can still hit the ball hard when they manage to connect, but the connections are so few and far between that it hardly matters. The only real question is: has Bieber surpassed Jacob deGrom and/or Gerrit Cole among starters? It's close, but remember Bieber won't get to pitch all his games against Central Division teams in 2021.

In Bieber's rookie campaign, his 4.55 ERA was more than a run higher than his 3.23 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA. Once again, the ERA estimators proved prescient as Bieber posted a 3.28 ERA, perfectly supported with a 3.23 xFIP and 3.36 SIERA. Bieber's 93-mph fastball isn't overpowering, but he deploys a four-pitch mix with excellent control, changing speeds and eye levels effectively. The result is a dominating 25.5 K-BB%. Curiously, Bieber's average exit velocity allowed, and hard-hit rate are very poor, around 4th percentile. Last season's .296 BABIP wasn't affected much, but there's noteworthy concern as evidenced by a .246 xBA -- 17 points higher than his actual .229 mark. The high average exit velocity was responsible for 31 homers in 214.1 innings. Bieber will be drafted as an ace, rightfully so. Just beware there's some risk if he doesn't induce weaker contact. If he does, he's elite.

The surface numbers from Bieber's rookie season leave a lot to be desired, but he was much better than a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP would suggest. After getting the call in late May, Bieber struck out more than five batters for every one he walked (5.13 K/BB, 19.6% K-BB) while maintaining an above-average groundball rate (46.6%). A sub-70 percent strand rate and .356 BABIP skewed the ratios. In the end, all three of his FIP, xFIP and SIERA were more than a full run lower than his ERA. Bieber wasn't afraid to challenge hitters, throwing first-pitch strikes 66.4% of the time, and he used his breaking stuff later in counts to get swinging strikes. He doesn't overpower hitters with the fastball, but Bieber's pitch mix and command put him in position to be successful for a long time in the major leagues. He threw 194.1 innings between the majors and minors last year and shouldn't have any real limitations in 2019. This is a pitcher you want on your team.