From a fan's standpoint, we have certainly seen better cards than the 13-fight slate being offered by the UFC this weekend. What we do have, however, is several closely lined fights we can study to gain an edge on DFS and betting platforms. We'll take a look at every bout, including a wrestler who throws caution to the wind and a flyweight looking to make his push to title contention. Our betting line this week comes from the DraftKings betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Tatsuro Taira ($9,000)
It doesn't take much fight analysis to understand that Brandon Royval was taken down a remarkable eight times in his last five-round fight against Alexandre Pantoja, which resulted in 15:51 seconds of control time. The issue is that "Raw Dog" is so fond of playing jiujitsu that he would prefer to outscramble opponents rather than try and stay on his feet. In Taira, we have a position grappler who may be physically stronger than Pantoja. This does not bode well for Royval's prospects once the fight hits the mat.
Themba Gorimbo ($9,200)
Gorimbo will have multiple ways to best Niko Price, which begins with his strong counterpunching. Price will wade into the pocket with big strikes, but Gorimbo should be able to angle off and find reactive takedowns. He should also be the physically stronger man in the clinch. We have seen Price find creative ways to win in the past, but a collected fighter like Gorimbo should be able to filter out the noise and work his game to perfection.
Dan Argueta ($7,500)
Argueta wrestles at such a tireless pace that he often is unable to keep it, but notching a win should put him on the optimal lineup, as he has put up a total of 107 points in his two official UFC losses. Cody Haddon is a powerful fighter who likes to stalk his opponents, but he is susceptible to being controlled, which may give "The Determined" opportunities to rest in top position. Argueta is a bull in a china shop, but underdogs may be few and far between on this slate, which has me taking a chance on a fighter who is too active for his own good.
Pat Sabatini ($8,000)
This fight is lined closely for a reason, as both Sabatini and Jonathan Pearce are dangerous submission grapplers. The separation comes in the striking, as Sabatini is far more agile, willing to pressure and capable of putting combinations together. Pearce has always been big for the division but carelessness in scramble situations have led to losses for "JSP" before, and Sabatini should be the more controlled fighter in this matchup. A slight advantage on the mat combined with a large advantage on the feet makes Sabatini my clear pick in what should be a high-paced fight.
Julia Polastri ($8,300)
Cory McKenna seems like a decent fighter. She pressures her opponents, attempts to wrestle, and throws volume at range. The issue is she is simply too small, leaving her unable to take over a fight against stronger opponents. Enter Polastri, who comes into this fight with a five-inch reach advantage. The Brazilian competitor fights with all the qualities I praised in McKenna above, which makes it difficult to see how she will be able to get ahead in this matchup.
Jun Yong Park ($8,500)
As we saw in his last fight with Andre Muniz, Park can control the fight with his wrestling, provided he is the only wrestler in the cage. This should allow him to control the fight with Brad Tavares, who seems to be slowing down in every aspect of the fight game. At 36 years old, The Hawaiian fighter simply doesn't command the cage as well as he used to, which was evident by the 3:18 of control he ceded to Gregory Rodrigues. Park is a solid boxer as well, giving him many different ways to get his hand raised here.
Junior Tafa ($$)
A fight between two brawling kickboxers may not seem like a DraftKings play, but this fight was recently made and is still without workable odds or under/over projections. Still, the 60-second bonus is potentially in play as Sean Sharaf swings from his hip and tries to knock his opponents out. Tafa hasn't had much success in the UFC, but we've seen inklings of a nice jab and an ability to keep range that should be enough to best a fighter who hasn't been outside the first round in six (professional and amateur) fights.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Daniel Rodriguez OVER 70.5 Significant Strikes, Chidi Njokuani UNDER 41.5 Significant Strikes, and Grant Dawson UNDER 50.5 Significant Strikes
Rodriguez and Alex Morono are prolific strikers who are hard to hurt, which makes this line incredibly vulnerable despite the seemingly large total. While Morono will look to grapple on occasion, "The Great White" has a takedown average of just 0.36 and lands almost five significant strikes per 15 minutes of cage time. This suggests an energetic back-and-forth in the pocket for the better part of three rounds.
Njoukani stands up tall in the pocket, and Jared Gooden has absorbed a stunning 6.68 significant strikes per minute in the Octagon. The strike total here seems to suggest that this one goes deep into the second round, which is hard to imagine, given how often these two heavy hitters will be standing at range and trading shots.
Grant Dawson racks up more significant strikes than one might think with his style, as he can generally rain down strikes from the top position. I'd be surprised if that would be the case against Rafa Garcia, who is so athletic and powerful that Dawson will likely do everything he can to maintain position. If Dawson wins this fight, I expect a boring, blanketing performance, which will seriously curtail significant strike totals.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Clayton Carpenter OVER 14.5 Minutes of Fight Time and Abdul Razak Alhassan UNDER 7.5 Minutes Of Fight Time
Carpenter is an athletic fighter who hits hard, but he tends to struggle to put his opponents away unless he has a significant advantage. I doubt he finds it against Lucas Rocha, who features a solid jab and is responsible with his defense. He can also wrestle when the situation calls for it. Carpenter is going to try and hit the gas at the opening bell, but Rocha should be able to do enough to slow down and extend the fight to the judges' scorecards.
Josh Fremd hasn't exactly been chinny during his time in the UFC, but he will be so thoroughly outmatched by Alhassan's power and speed that it's difficult to predict anything but a short night. While he may attempt to wrestle, "Judo Thunder" is just as strong in grappling situations as his name implies, and Fremd has notched just a 25 percent takedown accuracy rate.
Bets to Consider
C.J. Vergara (+285)
Vergara is always live as an underdog at flyweight, as he will put pressure and volume on opponents and can find his way to take rounds on the scorecards. By contrast, Ramazan Temirov throws big in the pocket, hoping to land the home run blow. I think Vergara will be able to fade the power on display and make the relatively slow-footed fighter from Uzbekistan chase him around the octagon for 15 minutes.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Vegas 98 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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