This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 86 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Daniel Marcos (15-0-0) v. Aoriqileng (25-11-0)
Daniel Marcos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
Aori Qileng - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: I would not expect much action or a high score from this fight. Both fighters tend to have slower-paced decisions with little ground game. I've noticed that Marcos sometimes fights to the level of his competition, which worries me a little, but I expect him to be the more powerful striker and win for the 16th fight in a row.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Marcos
Zac Pauga (6-2-0) v. Bogdan Guskov (14-3-0)
Zac Pauga - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 1 finishes in 6 wins
Bogdan Guskov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an interesting matchup of two low-level light heavyweights. This should be considered a pure GPP fight. Pauga has only one finish to his name and does nothing to score well enough to warrant a place in any DFS roster. Guskov was smacked in his debut, showing nerves or a lack of qualifications to be on the UFC roster. This fight will give us a little insight into that. If Guskov wins, it will be by early finish, making him the safer choice for DFS.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Guskov
Jeremiah Wells (12-3-1) v. Max Griffin (19-10-0)
Jeremiah Wells - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Max Griffin - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Griffin is now 38 and has noticeably slowed. He will have an edge in volume, but that is about it. Wells should dominate everywhere, particularly the mat. However, if he gasses late again, Griffin will have a shot to finish him if he is not careful. Assuming the cardio will hold, Wells is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Wells
Devin Clark (14-8-1) v. Marcin Prachnio (16-7-0)
Devin Clark - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 14 wins
Marcin Prachnio - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74 – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Prachnio will have a considerable edge on the feet and will likely knock out Clark out if he can keep it there. However, his takedown defense is suspect, and Clark can exploit that. A solid DFS score could come from the winner of this fight, so getting to both sides in GPP contests will be big. I expect Clark to avoid the knockout and find this to the mat more often than not.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Clark
Loma Lookboonmee (8-3-1) v. Bruna Brasil (9-3-1)
Loma Lookboonmee - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 8 wins
Bruna Brasil - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Brasil has been dangerous in prior fights against lesser competitors. Her one UFC loss came against a rising prospect, and she struggled mightily. She now draws another rising prospect whose only UFC losses have come against now-ranked fighters. Unless Brasil kicks it up a gear, she will get rag-dolled, and I would not be surprised to see Lookboonmee lock up a new high in significant strikes this fight.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Lookboonmee
Trevin Giles (16-5-0) v. Carlos Prates (17-6-0)
Trevin Giles - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
Carlos Prates - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 78" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Prates is a dangerous fighter with solid experience coming into his debut. Giles will be a solid test for the newcomer and, ultimately, might be too much. I expect this fight to remain close and to see the judges' scorecards but for Giles to edge this out with his defense. I would not expect a high DFS score without an early finish.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Giles
Rodolfo Vieira (9-2-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (8-2-0)
Rodolfo Vieira - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Armen Petrosyan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the more interesting fights of the night. Vieira will have an immense edge on the mat, and Petrosyan has terrible takedown defense. Assuming Vieira shoots more often than not, I would expect him to submit Petrosyan eventually. Petrosyan is the better striker in the matchup, so if he has evolved his takedown defense, he will likely strike his way to a decision.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Vieira
Michael Johnson (21-19-0) v. Darrius Flowers (12-6-1)
Michael Johnson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 21 wins
Darrius Flowers - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Johnson was on the wrong end of a knockout last time out, dropping to 2-6 in his last eight fights. Flowers struggled in his UFC debut, getting submitted halfway through the second round. We did not get to see what Flowers is capable of, but hopefully, we will do so here. I expect to see a dominant effort that results in his first UFC win and finish.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Flowers
Brad Tavares (20-8-0) v. Gregory Rodrigues (14-5-0)
Brad Tavares - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 20 wins
Gregory Rodrigues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Tavares does not score well for DFS in any win. If he wins here, it will be another boring decision. Rodrigues is coming off an impressive first-round knockout and will be the best play in this one. Tavares has solid defense, but I expect Rodrigues to blow past it and record another early finish. He is a solid play for all DFS contests.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Rodrigues
Dan Ige (17-7-0) v. Andre Fili (23-10-0)
Dan Ige - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Andre Fili - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Fili scored a beautiful knockout win just a couple of months ago, but he is taking his fight on short notice against the 13th-ranked Ige. He has dangerous hands and will be a threat for the entirety of the fight. Ige is coming off of a tough loss, dropping to 2-4 in his last six fights. However, all of his losses are against fellow ranked fighters. I expect Ige to continue his streak of beating fighters he should be to keep his spot in the rankings.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Ige
Jack Hermansson (23-8-0) v. Joe Pyfer (12-2-0)
Jack Hermansson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 23 wins
Joe Pyfer - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Hermansson has alternated wins and losses over his last seven fights but still presents the biggest test for Pyfer to date. He is still an excellent all-around fighter, but it seems as though his prime has come and gone, making him unlikely to contend for the title again. However, he can still be a gatekeeper for the division rankings for a while. Pyfer gets the chance to enter the rankings with a win and show the world he is ready for the top-15. I expect this to be close to start, but for Pyfer to take off and eventually finish Hermansson for his biggest career win.
UFC Vegas 86 Pick: Pyfer
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 86 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
