This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 57 takes place Saturday at the UFC APEX, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks for the key fights on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
Main Event - Lightweight
Arman Tsarukyan (18-2-0) v. Mateusz Gamrot (20-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Tsarukyan ($9,100), Gamrot ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Tsarukyan (-255), Gamrot (+215)
Odds to Finish: -130
This might not be getting the hype of a typical main event, but there is a real chance this will end up being one of the most underrated fights of the entire year. Both of these men are terrific and have a ton of future potential despite the fact they compete in a loaded lightweight division.
Tsarukyan began his UFC run with a unanimous decision defeat to Islam Makhachev in April 2019. He's won five in a row since, including back-to-back knockouts over Joel Alvarez and Christos Giagos in his past two bouts. Makhachev might be the best lightweight in the world today, so I'm not holding that defeat against Tsarukyan, and he's looked unstoppable since. Arman is a legitimate all-around force, and at just 25 years of age, his ceiling remains among the highest in the sport today.
Gamrot, however, will be no easy mark. The 31-year-old has picked up three-straight stoppage wins over Diego Ferreira, Jeremy Stephens and Scott Holtzman. A former KSW champ at both featherweight and lightweight, Gamrot is an exceptional wrestler. He averages 5.83 takedowns per 15 minutes. That is an unsustainable number, but Gamrot's grappling abilities are a true difference maker each and every time he steps into the Octagon.
I'm very curious to see how this fight plays out. Both of these men are used to outmuscling their competition and control the pace of a bout, particularly at the point of attack. When both men are high-level wrestlers, the winner is typically the man who has better secondary skills.
Gamrot is three inches taller, but it's Tsarukyan who enters with a two-inch reach edge. There should be a physicality edge for Tsarukyan, but I'm not overly excited to pay such a high salary to find out.
I was quite surprised by how heavily favored Tsarukyan is here. Everything from the advanced numbers to each man's past body of work leads me to believe this will be a close fight. I would still take Arman to win, all things considered, but I like Gamrot much more as a DFS play. His low salary allows you to get creative on a card that thins out in a hurry.
THE PICK: Tsarukyan
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Neil Magny (26-9-0) v. Shavkat Rakhmonov (15-0-0)
DK Salaries: Magny ($6,900), Rakhmonov ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Magny (+320), Rakhmonov (-390)
Odds to Finish: -185
Magny continues to quietly go about his business, racking up a ton of victories and never making any waves along the way. Neil has won five of six dating back to March 2020. Include in that stretch are victories over Geoff Neal, Li Jingliang and Robbie Lawler. Magny currently has nineteen victories under the UFC banner, tying him with Hall-of-Famer Georges St-Pierre for most in welterweight company history. Neil has traditionally struggled against true high-end competition, but he has consistently figured out a way to get past most everyone else for many years.
Rakhmonov looks like a true potential future title contender at 170 pounds. The first Kazakhstani fighter in UFC history, Shavkat has racked up three straight wins over Carlston Harris, Michel Prazeres and Alex Oliveira to begin his time with the company, with each coming via stoppage. The upside here is through the roof, although Magny will prove to be by far Shavkat's toughest test to date.
The fact Magny has had such a prolonged run of success is remarkable because he's a below-average athlete without a single elite skill to fall back upon in the event of trouble. What he does excel at is tailoring his game plan to each specific opponent he is facing, in addition to possessing an exceptional gas tank.
Magny is also massive for the division at 6-foot-3. He's bigger than most every welterweight he faces, and he'll be bigger than Rakhmonov on Saturday, but Shavkat is no small man himself at 6-foot-1. Rakhmonov also possesses a fluidity on the feet that Neil may struggle to match.
This is a really good fight and excellent matchmaking. If Rakhmonov is as good as everyone seems to think he is, he should get past Magny. That said, I'd be pretty shocked if he does so without issue simply because Neil has been competitive against most everyone he faces for the duration of his career. He thrives in these underdog spots, but I think there's a significant gap in terms of talent and ability that should lead to a Rakhmonov victory.
THE PICK: Rakhmonov
Heavyweight
Josh Parisian (14-5-0) v. Alan Baudot (8-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Parisian ($7,800), Baudot ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Parisian (-115), Baudot (-105)
Odds to Finish: -170
A fringe roster heavyweight who earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2020, Parisian has gone on to alternate losses and wins in his first three UFC bouts. Like many lower-end heavyweights, Parisian swings from the bleachers with everything he throws and hopes for the best. He lacks secondary skills and is going to have a near impossible time winning fights in which he doesn't score a knockout.
Baudot is actually in worse shape entering this bout, as he in winless (0-2, 1NC) in three UFC bouts and will almost certainly be fighting for his job here. Like Parisian, Baudot made a name himself prior to his arrival in the company by racking up knockout wins against far lesser competition. The tables have predictably turned since his arrival in the UFC.
Neither Parisian or Baudot have shown much of anything in the grappling department, so the winner will almost certainly be the man who is able to remain upright on the feet. Neither has an edge in the size department, as Parisian is just an inch taller, and the reach of both men is actually the same.
As crazy as it sounds, this is the exact type of fight with the potential to break a DFS slate. Both of these guys are likely to be extremely low-owned, which is crazy considering the odds are probably worse than 50/50 that the bout sees a second round.
Picking a winner? That's another story entirely. I have zero confidence in predicting a victor, and when that happens it's always a good idea to take the man with the better payoff. From a DFS standpoint, that's Parisian. I imagine the Vegas odds will turn slightly in Baudot's favor by the time fight night rolls around.
THE PICK: Parisian
Lightweight
Thiago Moises (15-6-0) v. Christos Giagos (19-9-0)
DK Salaries: Moises ($9,000), Giagos ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Moises (-230), Giagos (+195)
Odds to Finish: -130
Moises has been wildly inconsistent over the course of his time with the company. He appeared to be making real strides following three straight wins over Michael Johnson, Bobby Green and Alexander Hernandez from May 2020 to February 2021, but he has dropped two straight since. Granted, the first loss is entirely excusable considering it came against Islam Makhachev, but Moises' first-round knockout loss to Joel Alvarez as a (-200) favorite last November was a crushing setback. He should be in good position to rebound here, but another loss could potentially result in a release.
Giagos is another fighter who has been inconsistent, showing well against fringe roster fighters and often getting dominated by high-end competition. His 4-3 record in his second run with the company appears underwhelming, but one of those losses came against current (uncrowned) UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira and another came against Tsarukyan. Giagos isn't going to go on any prolonged winning streak, there's no reason he can't pick up a handful of wins here and there depending on the level of competition he is facing.
Both of these men struggle in the stand-up despite the fact both have excellent size for the division. Moises is the more gifted submission specialist, while Giagos is more likely to use his wrestling. Christos averages 3.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and Moises defends the takedown at just a 60-percent clip, so don't be surprised if we see Giagos shoot early and often here.
There's enough value here in Giagos' price tag to make him a worthy underdog DK play. I could absolutely see a scenario in which he keeps Moises pinned to the mat for long stretches at a time and thus wins a boring decision. It's unlikely, as I think Moises will find a way to get it done, but it's not impossible.
THE PICK: Moises
Other Bouts
Bantamweight
Nate Maness (14-1-0) v. Umar Nurmagomedov (14-0-0)
DK Salaries: Maness ($6,700), Nurmagomedov ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Maness (+600), Nurmagomedov (-850)
Odds to Finish: -200
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov
Middleweight
Chris Curtis (28-8-0) v. Rodolfo Vieira (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Curtis ($8,600), Vieira ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Curtis (-145), Vieira (+125)
Odds to Finish: -725
THE PICK: Curtis
Light Heavyweight
Carlos Ulberg (6-1-0) v. Tafon Nchukwi (6-2-0)
DK Salaries: Ulberg ($8,300), Nchukwi ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Ulberg (-115), Nchukwi (-105)
Odds to Finish: -180
THE PICK: Nchukwi
Featherweight
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (37-10-0) v. TJ Brown (16-8-0)
DK Salaries: Nuerdanbieke ($7,300), Brown ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Nuerdanbieke (+175), Brown (-205)
Odds to Finish: +140
THE PICK: Brown
Bantamweight
Raulian Paiva (21-4-0) v. Sergey Morozov (17-5-0)
DK Salaries: Paiva ($7,700), Morozov ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Paiva (+115), Morozov (-135)
Odds to Finish: +120
THE PICK: Paiva
Flyweight
JP Buys (9-4-0) v. Cody Durden (12-4-1)
DK Salaries: Buys ($8,200), Durden ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Buys (-120), Durden (+100)
Odds to Finish: +115
THE PICK: Buys
Bantamweight
Brian Kelleher (24-13-0) v. Mario Bautista (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Kelleher ($7,500), Bautista ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Kelleher (+140), Bautista (-165)
Odds to Finish: -120
THE PICK: Bautista
Women's Strawweight
Vanessa Demopoulos (7-4-0) v. Jinh Yu Frey (11-6-0)
DK Salaries: Demopoulos ($7,000), Frey ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Demopoulos (+220), Frey (-260)
Odds to Finish: +150
THE PICK: Frey
