Pierce Johnson

Elbow tendinitis limited Johnson to just 14.1 innings last season, but his solid body of work for San Diego in recent years earned him a one-year, $5 million deal from his hometown Rockies. The 32-year-old joins Colorado after compiling a 3.39 ERA and 125:44 K:BB ratio over 93 innings since 2020. Johnson's 32.2% strikeout rate over that span illustrates his upside, but that comes not without risk, as evidenced by his poor 11.3% walk rate and recent elbow injury. Still, Johnson is primed for a high-leverage role and could finally earn some save opportunities if closer Daniel Bard struggles or gets hurt.

San Diego was quick to exercise their $3 million team option on Johnson for 2022 after he posted the strongest campaign of his career last season. The 30-year-old pitched a career-high 58.2 innings that were accompanied by solid ratios (3.22 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) and a strong 11.8 K/9. The right-hander's 11.1% walk rate was a little high, but he still maintained an above-average 20.1% K-BB%. Johnson can bring the heat with a 96-mph fastball, but primarily throws a curveball 67.5% of the time and is among the league spin rate leaders on the pitch. His overall Statcast metrics are mostly above-average and he's deserving of a higher-leverage role for the Padres. The question that remains is whether he enters the save mix for new Padres manager Bob Melvin. Until he announces a closer, or San Diego signs a clear-cut guy, Johnson is a strong late-round flier for those speculating on saves.

After spending 2019 with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball, Johnson returned stateside last season, joining the Padres on a two-year, $5 million contract with team option for 2022. The 2012 first-round pick was much more successful last season than he was during his prior spins through the majors, and a significant velocity jump is a big reason why. Johnson averaged 96.3 mph on his heater last season, up nearly three full ticks from where he was with San Francisco in 2018. The increased velocity and elite curveball spin helped Johnson to a 33.8 K%, a top-25 rate among qualified relievers. Johnson was even more dominant against lefties than he was against righties, but he only had one hold on the year and would need to leapfrog a small army to get consistent saves in 2021.

A first-round pick back in 2012 and for several years one of the Cubs' top pitching prospects, Johnson has yet to put things together in the majors. In 44.2 big-league innings for the Cubs and Giants in 2017 and 2018, he stumbled to a 5.44 ERA, a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 11.9% walk rate. There's reason to believe he'll be much better than that for the Padres this season, however. Rather than sticking around stateside and struggling to win a roster spot last offseason, he elected to head to Japan. A year later, that decision appears to be an excellent one. In 58.2 innings for the Hanshin Tigers, he looked like an entirely new pitcher, posting a 1.38 ERA and a 40.6% strikeout rate. Johnson had recorded strikeout rates north of 30% in his last two seasons in Triple-A, so it's not impossible that he'll be a strikeout arm and a high-leverage weapon this season despite his previous struggles in the majors.

Once a highly-rated prospect, Johnson spent the majority of the season as a 26-year-old reliever at Triple-A Iowa before being waived and claimed by the Giants in late September. His unremarkable 4.31 ERA at Triple-A hides some solid underlying numbers, as he struck out 31.6 percent of the batters he faced and posted a 3.43 FIP. Johnson's minor-league numbers have been solid at every stop outside of a disastrous 2016 season at Triple-A in which he registered a 6.14 ERA and 14.9 percent walk rate. Johnson will have to compete for a spot in the Giants' bullpen in camp. His solid strikeout numbers last season leave some hope that he could carve out a role a prominent role in time, but it's hard to see that happening in 2018.

Injuries hampered Johnson throughout 2016, limiting his workload to 22 appearances split between the rotation and the bullpen at Triple-A Iowa. Fortunately, he finished the season healthy, despite missing time with arm, lat, and hand ailments. Walks have been a problem for the 25-year-old at times in his development, but the shift to a relief role yielded excellent results as he bolstered his strikeout rate in shorter outings and reduced the impact of his free passes in the process. Johnson has an above-average mid-90s fastball and a very good curveball, with the potential to develop a changeup. If he's able to harness a third pitch, there is reason to believe that he can improve his effectiveness against lefties, who hit .323 against him last season. The Cubs will likely give Johnson an opportunity to earn a roster spot during spring training, and if everything clicks, he has the arsenal necessary to be a good late-inning reliever as soon as 2017.

Johnson has been one of the top pitching prospects for the Cubs for quite some time now, and with a 2.08 ERA for Double-A Tennessee last year, it's possible he's nearing his big-league debut. On the other hand, he was repeating the level as a 24-year-old, and despite the low ERA, his 72:32 K:BB in 95 innings was a bit lackluster. That his strikeout rate dropped to 6.8 K/9 last year is a bit of concern, but he missed the first two months of the year with a strained lat and he could have been compensating. He was still able to get hitters out in other ways, which bodes well for his future. Expect a healthy Johnson to start the year with Triple-A Iowa, with a callup on the horizon if he can sustain the improved control that he showed last season.

Everyone talks about all of the good hitting prospects in the Cubs' organization, but for some reason the pitchers get short shrift. With C.J. Edwards hurt most of the year and Kyle Hendricks promoted, Johnson may now be the best pitching prospect in the Cubs' minor league system. He struck out 91 in 91.2 innings with Double-A Tennessee, so there obviously is something there, but he also walked 54. The 23-year-old righty still has a little bit of work to do. Expect him to start the year with Tennessee, with a quick promotion to Triple-A Iowa if he keeps his walks down. This could be his last year in the minors.

While the Cubs' hitting prospects get all the ink, they have a few good pitchers coming up through the ranks as well, and Johnson may be the best of them all. Between Low-A Kane County and High-A Daytona, he had a stellar 9.4 K/9 and only gave up five home runs in 118.1 innings. While his K:BB ratio declined when he was promoted to Daytona, it was still respectable. Johnson is probably a year or two away, but when he comes up to the Cubs, he should be solid.