This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Macau DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Macau takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Petr Yan (17-5-0) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1)
DK Salaries: Yan ($9,000), Figueiredo ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Yan (-310), Figueiredo (+250)
A former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion, Figueiredo moved up to bantamweight almost exactly a year ago and has gone 3-0 in his new digs. Included in that stretch are unanimous decisions over Rob Font and Marlon Vera and a submission of Cody Garbrandt. Long known as one of the hardest hitters at 125 pounds, Figueiredo's speed and power have carried over to the higher weight class. He's most definitely a legitimate threat in what is a far deeper division.
Yan had a stretch from April 2022 to March 2023 in which he fought arguably the three best bantamweights in the world at the time. He dropped all three fights to Aljamain Sterling, Sean O'Malley and Merab Dvalishvili, with the first two being split decisions. Not coincidentally, those three guys are also the three most recent UFC Bantamweight Champions. The company wisely gave Yan another shot, and he responded with a unanimous decision win over Yadong Song in March. He's not out of the woods yet, however, and needs a win here in order to remain on the immediate fringes of title contention.
Yan got back to basics against Song. His volume on the feet was way up. He finished with 99 significant strikes landed over the course of 15 minutes and also landed 2-of-5 takedowns. An excellent boxer, Petr hasn't looked as crisp on the feet in recent years, but it's most certainly fair to wonder if that was the result of who he was facing. He needs to remain active against Figueiredo in hopes of tiring him out.
Figgy's recent win over Vera was a bit of a mixed bag. Vera actually won the total strike battle in that fight by a 67-59 count. Although a Figueiredo knockdown was the biggest blow of the bout, and in the process, he became the first man to score a knockdown of Chito. Deiveson tried to get to his grappling game, but landed just 2-of-14 takedown attempts. He needs to go back to that well against Yan. Over the course of five rounds, it's imperative Figueiredo try to tire his opponent out and the easiest way to do that is to make him grapple. Yan has been taken down in five of his last six fights, with the lone exception being against O'Malley, who doesn't wrestle.
I'm a Figueiredo believer, but I also think Yan is lightyears better than anyone he has seen thus far at 135 pounds (I've never been a big Vera supporter).
Yan's lone true dreadful performance was when Dvalishvili took him down 11 times and just rag-dolled him the entire fight. Figueiredo isn't going to be able to employ that game plan for an entire bout. Other than that, you get a solid effort most every time out, win or lose.
I don't like the price tag on the favorite and think Figueiredo has a much better chance of winning than the Vegas odds would lead you to believe, but I value Yan's resume and would still like to see Figgy beat a true top guy at bantamweight before buying in completely.
THE PICK: Yan
Co-Main Event - Women's Strawweight
Yan Xiaonan (17-4-0, 1NC) v. Tabatha Ricci (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Yan ($8,800), Ricci ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Yan (-200), Ricci (+165)
Yan's UFC run has been a strange one. She started with six straight wins before dropping back-to-back fights to Carla Esparza (TKO, and a terrible look) and Marina Rodriguez (split decision). She then parlayed back-to-back wins over Mackenzie Dern (majority decision) and Jessica Andrade (KO) into a title shot against Zhang Weili at UFC 300 in April, where she was predictably obliterated. Yan remains a threat in a thin division, but at 35 years old, there's a real chance we have already seen the best she has to offer inside the octagon.
This will be Ricci's third fight of 2024 and her fourth fight in almost exactly a year. She is fresh off back-to-back decision wins over Angela Hill and Tecia Pennington. I didn't think Ricci looked great in either fight, truth be told, and I think there's a case to be made her opponent deserved the victory in each, particularly the Pennington bout. Now she has to travel halfway around the world to get to the arena, plus face an opponent who is clearly better than the last handful she's seen.
Yan is going to have an edge on the feet. She's four inches taller, has a two-inch reach edge, and typically fights with more physicality. I also have major concerns about Ricci's ability to function if she's sucked into a brawl. Tabatha absorbs a whopping 5.3 significant strikes per minute on average. Her durability has typically held up, but all that damage is going to catch up to her in the long run. For comparison sake, Yan absorbs 3.66 per minute.
Ricci is going to hope her wrestling is the difference maker. It's clearly her most direct path to victory. She's taken down six of her last seven opponents, including landing three-plus takedowns on four different occasions during that stretch. I wouldn't call her some mauler from top position, but she tries to stay active.
We have clear past evidence of Yan's method of attack. When she's facing strikers with little grappling chops, she leans on her takedowns. When she's facing grapplers who can take her down, she typically ends up on the mat and often on multiple occasions. That's a concern here because you know Ricci will try to exploit that hole.
Ricci looks like a pretty good value play even if you don't think she will win outright, which I don't. The undercard for this event is as random and up in the air as any event all year. If you're looking for upsets, I would try to pick from fighters we have some experience with. Ricci seems as strong of a bet as any.
THE PICK: Yan
Welterweight
Song Kenan (22-8-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (20-5-0)
DK Salaries: Song ($7,700), Sailkhov ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Song (+160), Salikhov (-190)
Now 40 years of age, Salikhov snapped a two-fight losing streak with a split decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio in August. It was a questionable decision, to put it mildly, and likely saved Salikhov's job in the process. Muslim had 199 professional kickboxing matches in addition to his 25 pro MMA fights. He's been noticeably less effective of late compared to early in his UFC run, and I think it's just a matter of time before the roof caves in completely.
Song's in a similar spot, treading water, but not exactly thriving. He took nearly two years off from March 2021 to March 2023, but to Song's credit, he's been active of late, fighting four times in the past 19 months. Of course, that hasn't led to any consistency, as Song is just 2-3 in his past five fights.
I don't trust Salikhov's durability at this stage of his career, but he's definitely the more technical boxer. He does a nice job of stringing together combinations and taking advantage of the openings presented by his opponent.
Song, on the other hand, is looking to get in there and turn things into a wild brawl. He's the type of fighter that is willing to eat a strike to land two of his own. Unfortunately, you can count on one hand the number of guys that style works for over the long term. Song absorbs 5.84 significant stirkes per minute on average. You simply aren't going to be able to string victories together if you're constantly absorbing that much damage.
Song's best chance of winning is to empty the gas tank early on in hopes of getting a stoppage. Short of that, he needs to constantly push the pace in hopes Salikhov tires out. Both outcomes are well within the range of possibilities, even if I don't consider them likely.
Song does have nine career wins via submission, but they almost all came early in his career and none with the UFC. He's defeated nobody of note during his time with the company, and while I don't like backing Salikhov, the price to do so here seems pretty fair.
Toss in the fact that outside of Ian Garry, Salikhov has faced the much better competition of the two of the past couple years and he is, reluctantly, the pick.
THE PICK: Salikhov
Light Heavyweight
Volkan Oezdemir (20-7-0) v. Carlos Ulberg (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Oezdemir ($7,300), Ulberg ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Oezdemir (+200), Ulberg (-245)
Regular readers of this column are well aware I've never been an Oezdemir supporter. He burned me last time with an easy win over Johnny Walker in June, but Volkan is still just 3-3 in his past half dozen bouts dating back to July 2020. With a limited offensive arsenal, I simply don't see the appeal, and now 35 years of age, I certainly don't see any long-term upside.
Ulberg, on the other hand, is closing in on title-implicating bouts at 205 pounds. He's won six straight, including five via stoppage, four of which came in Round 1. I give him a lot of credit for accepting this fight. A win over Oezdemir will do virtually nothing for him in terms of the rankings, while a setback could be catastrophic. He and his team must be plenty confident they can roll through Volkan without issue, and I tend to agree with them.
Oezdemir has some pop in his hands, but I wouldn't say it's difference-making power. He can certainly put away less durable opposition like he did with Walker, but it's not like he's going out there and stopping some of the best the division has to offer.
I've also always felt that a good chunk of his power is negated by his questionable defense. Volkan's always been plodding and his footwork is poor, if you're slick and creative like Ulberg, you should have a fairly easy time recognizing what is coming your way, moving, and returning fire.
Ulberg has really won me over of late. He's far better than I originally gave him credit for. I'm still a little worried about how he's going to hold up against a quality wrestler, but that's a problem for another day considering Oezdemir averages a mere 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes.
In what projects as a 15-minute (or less) kickboxing match, Ulberg has more pure power and is the much better technical striker.
Every single time I feel this strongly about a pick, alarm bells start going off in my head because I feel like I must be missing something.
That said, Volkan's last truly quality win was a split decision over Aleksandar Rakic back in December 2019. Maybe he turns back the clock and proves me wrong, but I'll be paying to find out.
THE PICK: Ulberg
Other Bouts
Women's Flyweight
Wang Cong (6-0-0) v. Gabriella Fernandes (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Wang ($9,600), Fernandes ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Wang (-900), Fernandes (+520)
THE PICK: Wang
Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang (17-6-0) v. Ozzy Diaz (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Zhang ($9,100), Diaz ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Zhang (-300), Diaz (+240)
THE PICK: Zhang
Bantamweight
Balgyn Jenisuly (18-5-0) v. Su Young You (13-3-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Jieleyisi ($7,900), You ($8,300)
Vegas Odds; Jieleyisi (+125), You (-150)
THE PICK: Jieleyisi
Flyweight
Kiru Sahota (12-2-0) v. Dong Hun Choi (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Sahota ($7,800), Choi ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Sahota (-110), Choi (-110)
THE PICK: Sahota
Women's Strawweight
Shi Ming (16-5-0) v. Feng Xiaocan (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Shi ($7,000), Feng ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Shi (+260), Feng (-320)
THE PICK: Feng
Flyweight
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (8-0-0) v. Carlos Hernandez (9-4-0)
DK Salaries: Tumendemberel ($8,600), Hernandez ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Tumendemberel (+165), Hernandez (-200)
THE PICK: Hernandez
Flyweight
Lone'er Kavanagh (7-0-0) v. Jose Ochoa (7-0-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Kavanagh ($9,400), Ochoa ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Kavanagh (-355), Ochoa (+280)
THE PICK: Kavanagh
Bantamweight
Xiao Long (26-9-0) v. Quang Le (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Xiao ($8,200), Le ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Xiao (-120), Le (+100)
THE PICK: Xiao
Lightweight
Hayisaer Maheshate (10-3-0) v. Nikolas Motta (14-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Maheshate ($8,700), Motta ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Maheshate (-200), Motta (+165)
THE PICK: Motta
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Macau with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
