DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: THE PLAYERS Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $25M
Winner's Share: $4.5M
FedEx Cup Points: 750 to the Winner
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course
Yardage: 7,352
Par: 72
2025 champion: Rory McIlroy

Tournament Preview

In the more than half-century history of THE PLAYERS Championship, only one player has won it three times. That would be Jack Nicklaus. But since the tournament moved to TPC Sawgrass in 1982, no one has done it. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are among the select handful to have won it twice, and they have dominated at Ponte Vedra Beach in recent years, combining to win four of the past six editions.

But with Scheffler and McIlroy entering the week with big question marks, the PGA Tour's flagship event might be more wide open than it's been in years.

The world No. 1 is proving to be mortal, after all. He does not have a top-10 in his past two starts and is ranked an unfathomable 88th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach. McIlroy, meanwhile, had been playing great -- until tweaking his back in a gym session before the third round at Bay Hill last Saturday, forcing him to withdraw. His status for this week is highly questionable as of this writing.

So that is where Scheffler and McIlroy stand as they face off with 121 other golfers this week, eyeing that so-difficult-to-achieve third PLAYERS title. What has made repeating so hard at Sawgrass, and winning thrice an impossibility, at least so far?

The beauty of the course is that it favors no one. There is no one skill set significantly more important than any other. You don't have to be the longest driver. You don't have to be the best putter. But if you want to be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday, you better be doing everything pretty well. As they like to say in golf, you're gonna need all 14 clubs in the bag. 

Sawgrass is not among the absolute hardest courses on Tour, but it almost always ranks among the hardest 15. Let's call it hard enough.

With that as the backdrop, it's easier to understand how no one had ever won THE PLAYERS back to back or even twice within a five-year span until Scheffler captured the 49th and 50th editions of the so-called fifth major in 2023 and '24. For every golfer who has done well here, there have been even more bad years. No one plays well at Sawgrass every year.

Even the great Scheffler, before winning those two in a row, missed the cut and tied for 55th in his first two attempts. And last year, when McIlroy won his second PLAYERS, Scheffler tied for 20th (which is almost like missing the cut for him).

Look at the three best golfers of the past half century:

• Tiger Woods is one of only seven golfers to win twice at Sawgrass. But he has only five top-10s in 19 tries.
• Phil Mickelson, the 2007 winner, missed the cut in six of his last seven visits and owns only three top-10s in 26 starts.
• McIlroy won in 2019 and 2025, but has only five top-10s in 15 tries.

This is crazy stuff. This doesn't happen often, maybe nowhere else on Tour, but until this Scheffler-McIlroy mini-domination, it was really hard to label anyone a true horse for the course. This is all probably due at least in part to the consistent strength of the fields. The majors all let in secondary- or even tertiary-level players, be they aging ex-champs, amateurs, players from lesser Tours or even club pros. Not THE PLAYERS.

The past six PLAYERS winners have all been ranked in the top-10 at the time of their win: two Schefflers, two McIlroys, Justin Thomas in 2021 and Cameron Smith in 2022.

There are seven former PLAYERS champs on hand. Besides Scheffler, McIlroy and Thomas, there are Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Jason Day and Si Woo Kim.

This will be the seventh time THE PLAYERS has been contested in March since being repositioned in 2019. Remember, the 2020 tournament was canceled after just one round at the onset of the global COVID pandemic. It had been played in May from 2007-18, after taking place in March for its first 33 years, beginning with Nicklaus capturing the inaugural edition in 1974. Just four players in this year's field have won THE PLAYERS in March -- Scheffler, McIlroy, Thomas and Scott in 2004.

Okay, on to the course, which inched up about 75 yards to 7,352 in 2025. Sawgrass has played longer and harder in the cooler March weather, and we're technically still in winter. There were 241 double bogeys, triples or worse last year, up from 212 in 2024 and nearly on par with the 254 in 2023.

The Pete Dye-designed track, despite having its quirks here and there, tends to be a pretty standard tee-to-green golf course. Distance is not paramount; accuracy more so. There traditionally has not been much rough. You can get away with mediocre putting on the smallish bermuda/poa overseed greens averaging 5,500 square feet. There's water everywhere, but it truly comes into play on 14 of the 18 holes. No hole is more famous – perhaps anywhere in the world – than the 17th with its island green. It's a mere 137 yards, but it's all crystal blue water between the tee and green. Last year, there were 28 doubles or worse there.

Nos. 16-18 have seen far more water balls the past two decades than any other three-hole closing stretch on Tour. There are usually more water balls on those three holes than the other 15 at Sawgrass combined. The 462-yard 18th was the second-hardest hole last year, just behind the 485-yard 14th. So the brutal five-hole closing stretch could very well decide things come Sunday.

If a playoff is needed, as it was last year when McIlroy defeated J.J. Spaun, it will be a three-hole aggregate on 16, 17 and 18. If golfers are still tied, they'd play 17, 18 and 16 in a loop till there's a winner. The Tour gets it right -- 17 is in the playoff.

As for the weather, there's a chance of some rain every day, but it looks like there could be delays on Thursday. Otherwise it will be warm but not overly hot, with the usual double-digit wind all week long.

PLAYERS factoids: Since the tournament has been held at Sawgrass beginning in 1982, there have only been seven two-time winners: Scheffler and McIlroy, plus Fred Couples (1984, '96), Steve Elkington (1991, '97), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Davis Love III (1992, 2003) and Woods (2001, 2013). ... Nicklaus won the inaugural PLAYERS in 1974, then again in '76 and '78, but all three on different courses. ... Seven players have won THE PLAYERS and a major in the same year: Nicklaus (1978, Open Championship), Sutton (1983, PGA Championship), Woods (2001, Masters), Martin Kaymer (2014, U.S. Open), Smith (2022, Open Championship), Scheffler (2024, Masters) and McIlroy (2025, Masters).

Key Stats to Winning at TPC Sawgrass

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting (but not as much as many weeks)
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2025 - Rory McIlroy
2024 - Scottie Scheffler
2023 - Scottie Scheffler
2022 - Cameron Smith
2021 - Justin Thomas
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Rory McIlroy
2018 - Webb Simpson
2017 - Si Woo Kim
2016 - Jason Day

Champion's Profile

McIlroy and Spaun tied at 12-under last year before McIlroy won the three-hole aggregate playoff.

With scoring so tight, there was some leakage to McIlroy's -- and everyone's -- game. He ranked 17th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and was hampered by poor accuracy, ranking 67th. He also was fifth in SG: Approach, 51st in Around-the-Green and 10 in Putting. Being in the top-10 in both Approach and Putting will almost always put you on the first page of the leaderboard.

Spaun needed to be better on the greens, because he was 11th in Off-the-Tee -- top-15 in both distance and accuracy -- eighth in Approach and fifth in Around-the-Green. But he ranked 36th in Putting.

McIlroy and Spaun were two clear of Akshay Bhatia, Lucas Glover and Tom Hoge, and the latter two are not known for their putting.

McIlroy made 10 bogeys (zero doubles), which is a lot for a PLAYERS winner.

Scheffler had only five bogeys each of the two previous years. That's a huge help in getting to 20-under, as he did in 2024. That's how you get to 17-under and win by five, as he did in 2023.

Scheffler led the field in driving distance in 2023, but at only 305 yards. Sawgrass is not a bomber's paradise. In 2024, he toned it down to average 299 -- but he also led the field in fairways hit.

In 2023, Scheffler ranked first in greens in regulation, fourth in SG: Approach and Around-the-Green, first in SG: Tee-to-Green and ... 48th in SG: Putting. In 2024, he ranked T3 in GIR, seventh in Approach, T6 in Around-the-Green, first in T2G and ... 37th in Putting.

Of course, putting can be a difference maker anywhere, including at Sawgrass. In 2022, Smith won by putting lights out.

That's what makes this week so confounding -- there is no *one* Champion's Profile. But more times than not, it's tee-to-green play.

More than making putts, avoiding the big number and the water balls, is the key. Don't misunderstand – there are birdies to be had and this week usually doesn't find a single-digit winner -- but it's far from a birdie-fest. There were only 12 tougher courses on Tour last year.

As we mentioned, the last six PLAYERS were all won by golfers ranked in the top-10 in the world.

The over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com is 272.5 -- 11.5 under par. 

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$9,000-$9,900

Collin Morikawa - $9,800 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +2050)
Imagine bypassing both Scheffler and McIlroy. A week ago, it might've seemed ludicrous. Tommy Fleetwood ($10,300) is the No. 3 guy on the DK board and playing well, but Morikawa is on a heater and really should be pricier. What's been impressive about Morikawa beyond the sterling approach play and the recent win at Pebble Beach is that he has continued to deliver. In his two starts after Pebble, he finished seventh at Riviera and fifth at Bay Hill.

Hideki Matsuyama - $9,500 (+3800) 
In his past five visits to Sawgrass, Matsuyama has finished in the top-8 three times and missed the cut twice. That's a heckuva full house. So be mindful of the risk. Matsuyama's approach game is close to where it's always been, ranked 24th, and his putter is maybe better than it's ever been, ranked 57th. The trouble lies with hitting his driver straight. He is ranked 96th in fairways hit, and that absolutely has to be better this week to avoid another MC.

$8,000-$8,900

Ludvig Aberg - $8,700 (+2800) 
Aberg's results have gotten better every tournament he's played this season: WD-MC-T37-T20-T3. Of course, there's not much higher he can go than last week's podium showing at Bay Hill. After a dicey 2025, Aberg clearly is playing better this season. He's in plus territory in every strokes-gained metric and is borderline top-50 in driving accuracy. He's not doing any one thing elite, but that's not necessarily a bad thing at Sawgrass.

Cameron Young - $8,100 (+3200) 
Young is coming off a tie for seventh at Riviera and a tie for third (with Aberg) at Bay Hill. That alleviates a lot of the concern about Young's not-so-good history at THE PLAYERS. In four tries, he's never so much as cracked the top-50. Like Aberg, he's a positive in every strokes-gained category. But his driving is elite, ranked sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee. He's also 16th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

$7,000-$7,900

Jacob Bridgeman - $7,900 (+6400)
Bridgeman continues to be a bit underpriced. He has stayed in the $7,000s even after winning at Riviera. He finished T18 at last week at the API, and that included a brutal 75 to open the tournament. He is ranked 14th in SG: Approach and second in SG: Putting, and that combo would play on any course in the world. This will be Bridgeman's second trip to Sawgrass, and that should help him improve on last year's tie for 50th.

Brooks Koepka - $7,800 (+4200)
We are ready to jump into the Koepka waters, grab a seat on the Brooks bandwagon. Koepka figured out what was wrong with his putter on Thursday night at the Cognizant, then shot 66-69-65 to register his first top-10 since returning to the Tour. He does not have a top-10 in six visits to Sawgrass, but he does not need one to justify his price tag. He does have two top-16 results, though, and a third this week would do the trick.

Akshay Bhatia - $7,700 (+4300)
The danger here is how Bhatia will respond so soon after the biggest win of his career last week at Bay Hill. The fact that he had been playing well all season, had won twice before and finished third last year at THE PLAYERS mitigates that concern. We can't expect a repeat of last week's record-setting short-game performance. But Bhatia is also ranked top-25 on Tour in SG: Approach. He really could be close to busting through to the elite class of golfers.

Sepp Straka - $7,600 (+5400)
Somebody crept, under the radar, back into the top 10 in the world rankings this week. Yes, Straka is No. 9 in the OWGR after last week's T13 at the API. And it would have been so much better if not for a Sunday 76. He has three top-16 showings in five prior PLAYERS starts. As we said last week, he has such a balanced game, a real requirement for Sawgrass. And we've seen him play well numerous times in big spots on hard courses.

Sahith Theegala - $7,000 (+8200)
Chances are you won't do well at Bay Hill or Sawgrass if you can't control your driver. Theegala controlled his driver last week, ranking 29th in the field in accuracy -- good enough -- and wound up tied for sixth. That was his third top-10 and fifth top-25 in what is fast becoming a quality bounce-back season. Theegala is still spraying his driver a bit this season, but it's clear he knows reigning it in correlates to his position on the leaderboard. He tied for ninth here two years ago.

$6,000-$6,900

Jordan Smith - $6,800 (+20000) 
Smith is enjoying a very fine rookie season on the PGA Tour. The 33-year-old Brit has made 4 of 5 cuts, with top-25s in his past two starts. He's never played Sawgrass before, but that's the case at many tournaments he'll play this year. Smith is driving the ball beautifully -- far and accurate -- and is top-40 on Tour in SG: Approach.

Matt McCarty - $6,700 (+11000) 
McCarty has been busy. He's made the cut in 6 of 7 starts this season, including his past two times out at the Signature Events at Riviera and Bay Hill. He doesn't hit it far, but he's very accurate with his driver, and he's also 30th on Tour in SG: Putting. McCarty tied for 20th last year in his PLAYERS debut.

Lee Hodges - $6,300 (+35000) 
This will be Hodges' fourth PLAYERS. He's made two cuts, including a tie for 35th two years ago. He is average or better is most aspects of his game, but particularly good at keeping the ball in the fairway and sinking putts. Hodges is ranked top-40 on Tour in both areas. 

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