RBC Heritage Betting Preview
Coming off the most exciting week in the golf world that saw Rory McIlroy go back-to-back at The Masters, the action remains in high gear for the fourth signature event of the season in Hilton Head, South Carolina for the RBC Heritage. An 82-player field heads to Harbour Town for a no-cut event that is headlined by World No. 1 and tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler at +385. Note that McIlroy, Justin Rose and Hideki Matsuyama are the only three eligible players electing to take the week off. Last year, Justin Thomas (20-1) won with a birdie on the first playoff hole over Andrew Novak.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,243 yards
These are the average rankings of RBC Heritage champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 21.2
- SG: Approach: 5.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 13.2
- SG: Putting: 29.0
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.4
- Driving Distance: 17.0
- Driving Accuracy: 41.8
Harbour Town is a popular venue of Tour players as a strategic course that requires precision over power. The Pete Dye design on the coast of the Atlantic Ocean features many dogleg holes and medium-length par-4s that don't require driver. The closing par-4 18th is an example of that and the most notable hole, in my opinion, where players are forced to layup off the tee and has the towering red-and-white lighthouse in the background. As long as the wind doesn't pick up (and the forecast seems reasonable thus far), there tends to be plenty of scoring opportunities with six holes playing under-par last year. The fairways here average a fairly standard 33 yards wide, and with the aforementioned doglegs and tree-lined fairways, I'm boosting accuracy over distance this week. Iron play tends to be the separating factor, and we'll see a lot of approach shots in the 150-200 yard range. I'll also be looking towards players that are good around the green, as Pebble Beach is the only course on Tour with smaller greens.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Harbour Town over the last five years (minimum eight rounds):
- Scottie Scheffler: 67.4
- Justin Thomas: 68.1
- Jordan Spieth: 68.2
- Xander Schauffele: 68.3
- Brian Harman: 68.3
2024 event champion Scheffler tops the list as he's shot under-par in all three of his appearances at the event, leading to a worst result of T11. He's dominated Harbour Town with his iron play, gaining an average of 1.47 strokes on approach per round across 12 rounds. Scheffler bounced back into form at Augusta National, leading the field in SG: Tee-to-Green in his runner-up finish. Meanwhile, Thomas continued his strong track record in Hilton Head in his win last year, where he's a perfect 7-for-7 in made cuts with four top-15s. While his form isn't the same as it was last year, the veteran did post a top-10 at THE PLAYERS and is much more under the radar this time around at 40-1.
Elite Iron Players
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele: 1.33
- Collin Morikawa: 1.28
- Akshay Bhatia: 1.13
- Jordan Spieth: 1.12
- Ludvig Aberg: 0.94
With iron play being a key metric, it's difficult to ignore Schauffele, whose approach play has been the primary factor in his three consecutive top-10 finishes. After not seeming like himself for much of last year, the former World No. 2 is gaining shots in every strokes gained category this year and looking more like what we saw in 2024. Meanwhile, Spieth also appears on both lists and that has the oddsmakers attention as he's 30-1. The downside of course is that you have to go back to last June to find his most recent top-10. Nevertheless, Spieth was eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green last week and has a great track record here. The 2022 event champion nearly went back-to-back, losing in a playoff the following the year.
RBC Heritage Bets: Outright Picks
Matt Fitzpatrick (17-1)
You've probably heard it a lot over the years – this is the course that Fitzpatrick took summer trips to with his family and is the one he circles on the calendar. The 2023 champion at Harbour Town has a win and a runner-up across his last three starts.
Sepp Straka (45-1)
Straka has played well in Hilton Head with top-5 finishes in 2022 and 2024, and he also led the field in SG: Approach last year but a poor week with his short game led to a T13. The veteran had a top-10 at THE PLAYERS and was one back at Pebble Beach - a similar course comparison.
Sahith Theegala (78-1)
Theegala is back trending in the right direction as he looks more like the player we saw in 2023-2024. He's made 8-of-9 cuts this year with four top-10s after failing to record one last year. Theegala has also played well here with two top-5s, highlighted by a runner-up two years ago.
RBC Heritage Bets: Placement Wagers
Daniel Berger
Top-10 Finish: +495
A terrible week on the greens led to a missed cut at The Masters, but this is a great bounce-back spot for Berger at a place where he's never missed the cut and finished T3 in 2020 and 2025. A playoff loss at Bay Hill last month shows that Berger's ceiling remains high.
Jacob Bridgeman
Top-5 Finish: +670
Bridgeman's streak of eight consecutive top-20s to start the year came to an end in his first trip to Augusta National, where he finished T41. Not bad for a debutant. The 26-year-old has established himself as one of the best putters in the world and lacks a true weakness in his game.
Sami Valimaki
Top-10 Finish: +1125
I'll take a shot on Valimaki as my darkhorse this week, whose weakness of being one of the shorter hitters on Tour shouldn't hold him back much at Harbour Town. A winner last fall at a similar venue on Sea Island, Valimaki finished T18 in his debut here last year.
RBC Heritage Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Ryo Hisatsune (-110) over J.T. Poston
A matchup between two players who have had much different seasons, I'll go with the in-form Hisatsune, who has four top-10s this year compared to Poston's best result of T21. The latter is being propped up too much on his strong course history at Harbour Town, and Hisatsune appears to like the venue as well considering he finished T18 in his debut last year when his form wasn't as good.
Ryan Gerard (+100) over Harris English
I like the value on Gerard as the underdog in this matchup at even money. While he hasn't been able to maintain the level from his back-to-back runner-ups to start the year, he has four top-25s and made the cut in his first trip down Magnolia Lane. Meanwhile, English is putting the ball better than ever, yet he's failed to record a top-20 this year. His normally reliable iron play has dipped, and he's only 81st in SG: Tee-to-Green.
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