THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson One and Done Picks
After a wild week at the PGA Championship that saw Aaron Rai win his first major championship on an extremely crowded leaderboard, the PGA Tour heads back to Texas for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. This will be the sixth straight year the event has been hosted by TPC Craig Ranch. It has been one of the easiest tracks on Tour over that time span, but after last year's event it underwent a $25 million redesign led by Lanny Wadkins in an attempt to make it more of a challenge for the best players in the world. Whether or not it can hold up is to be determined, but the CJ Group has made a big investment in the third year of it 10-year agreement.
While only three of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Ranking are on hand, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is in the field defending the title he secured by eight strokes a year ago. In 2025, Scheffler tied the PGA Tour 72-hole aggregate scoring record of 253, or a whopping 31 strokes under par. Si Woo Kim and Dallas native Jordan Spieth are the other two top-50 players teeing it, and Brooks Koepka, Blades Brown and Wyndham Clark highlight some of the other notables.
While the non-majors and Signature Events don't typically make a huge difference in One-and-Done leagues, THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson does have the largest purse among regular events at $10.3 million. It is the only such tournament with a purse over $10 million, so a winning pick could prove consequential with a $1.854 million top prize.
The weather for this event is always a big dodgy. This week's forecast is no different, with a high chance of thunderstorms Thursday, then a solid chance for more storms on the weekend. The course should play softer with all the rain and create quality scoring conditions for this field of 147 players -- especially with little wind expected.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: TPC Craig Ranch (7,385 yards, par 71)
- Location: McKinney, Texas
- Purse: $10.3 million -- $1.854 million to winner
- Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-31)
- 2025 Scoring Average: 69.13 (-1.87)
- 2025 36-Hole Cut: -5
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Years: -25.6
TPC Craig Ranch will have a different look this year. A big focus was moving and redesigning the fairway bunkers to make driving more strategic for the top players. In previous editions you could pretty much bomb the driver everywhere without much thought. Wadkins also redesigned the green complexes to create more hole location options. Some of the grasses were changed and the fairways are now Zoysia, while the rough is back to Bermuda. The greens are now Bentgrass, which is more resistant to the hot temperatures in Dallas. While some holes have been lengthened, the overall length on the scorecard actually is down nearly 200 yards. The hope is this all provides a different type of test, as strategy was mostly non-existent in years past.
Most believe birdie-fests turn into putting contests, but this course has actually rewarded elite ball striking. Each of the five winners here ranked top-5 for the week in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Scheffler put on an absolute clinic with the irons a year ago, gaining over 12.8 shots to the field on approach. With the greens being redone, the rough being a little more penal and the fairway bunkers squeezing some of the landing areas, the top ball strikers should have even more of an opportunity to thrive.
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THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: One and Done Picks
Thompson has really turned things on of late, going T14-T6-T13 in his last three starts. While he is just 128th in the OWGR, he ranks 64th on DataGolf, which makes him one of the best players in a weak field. Thompson actually came out third in the model I created this week behind Scheffler and Kim, both of whom I have already used. Thompson is an elite iron player, ranking 17th in SG: Approach, 15th in GIR percentage and 21st in proximity. He also features a very strong short game at sixth in scrambling, which could be more important than people might think, as many up-and-down opportunities will be for birdie. --Ryan Andrade
This seems like the best week to deploy Kim. He's the second best golfer in this field. He'll be a popular pick. He's been great all season and in some areas elite. He leads the Tour in birdies. He's back at his U.S. home base in Dallas. Kim is coming off a tie for 35th at the PGA Championship. Interestingly, it was his vaunted approach game that was way off and he putted decently. Let's chalk that up to the quirkiness of Aronimink. Kim has done quite well at Craig Ranch, finishing 15th last year, 12th the year before and runner-up in 2023. --Len Hochberg
Eckroat definitely should not be on most rosters over the course of a One-and-Done season, but against this field with a light purse, he represents a viable dart throw in mid-to-large size contests at barely any projected ownership. He's coming off a T10-T6-T19 stretch from the Valero Texas Open through the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, ascending to third in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Approach over his last 20 rounds. Additionally, he's second on Tour in Prox: 150-175 this season, and he tied for second during his 2023 TPC Craig Ranch debut when he paced the field in SG: Putting. --Bryce Danielson
It's not often that I'm pigeonholed into a certain player, but that's the boat I'm in now. I have used Scheffler, Kim and Koepka and no one else looks desirable, so I'm going with what will surely be a popular play in Spieth. Don't get me wrong, I like the pick, but the problem is almost everyone is going to have him. The field is thin, which should improve his chances, but I don't see how he gets the better of Scheffler. With that being said, a runner-up is certainly possible and I would take that in a heartbeat. --Greg Vara
This isn't the same course Cole played last year, but he did notch a T5 at TPC Craig Ranch in 2025. His recent form and birdie-making ability -- good for 28th on Tour -- suit this week's challenge, especially against one of the weaker fields. It's a bit of a long shot but I'm looking to make up some ground in the overall standings. --Lauren Jump
Mitchell skipped this event last year but had his best result in his three visits TPC Craig Ranch in 2024, finishing T20 on the strength of a fifth-place showing in SG: Tee-to-Green. While Mitchell has struggled in elite fields, this isn't one, and all five of his top-15s this season -- including one in Texas -- came in standard events. Mitchells ranks 12th off the tee and 32nd in birdie or better percentage, which makes this a great time to use him. --Ryan Pohle
This seems like a boom-or-bust proposition, but I'm banking on the former in a diluted field. I've long questioned Koepka's desire at standard PGA Tour stops, but he is not qualified for Signature Events, so he has more to play for than he did in years past. The stats are on Koepka's side everywhere except the putting surface, and he is trying yet another putter in an effort to get right on the greens. This is a big opportunity for Koepka, and one I'm confident he will convert on. --Kevin O'Brien
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: One and Done Fades
It's hard to really fade anyone this week given how weak the field is and the unpredictable nature of a birdie-fest, but I think Pendrith will draw some interest as a former winner here in 2024. The Canadian did not top-30 finish anywhere in his last 13 starts, which is not something you would expect from a man with the 12th lowest odds. The driving has been very good this season, but everything else has been quite disappointing -- particularly the putter, which has Pendrith 140th in that department. Pendrith was fifth in SG: Putting just two years ago. --Ryan Andrade
Mitchell has the fifth shortest odds in this field behind Scheffler, Kim, Spieth and Koepka. That is flat-out unthinkable. Mitchell has only three top-25s all season, and none of those came in a birdie-fest. His lowest score all year is 15-under-par, which resulted in a T44 at The Amex. He simply doesn't putt well enough to compete in a track meet, especially with his iron play a bit off this season. --Len Hochberg
Unless he emerges victorious in McKinney, this might be the last chance to click Spieth when his outright odds are shorter than 20-1. Even still, Scheffler lingers as a heavy favorite to defend the $1.85M first-place prize while crushing the win equity for everyone else. We know the casual OAD pool entrant overemphasizes course history, which figures to overinflate Spieth's popularity given his 4-MC-2-T9 run across four prior appearances at TPC Craig Ranch. However, I'm not sure Spieth is the type of chalk you want to eat if you're in the middle or back of the pack in your league's standings. We're playing a ceiling game, and although he's volatile from day to day, Spieth hasn't produced a single top-10 result in nearly a year. He's 127th among this feeble field in overall proximity over his last 24 rounds and ranks just 125th on Tour in putting from 4-to-8 feet this season. --Bryce Danielson
I'm breaking my rule of using a high-profile guy in this spot, but honestly I had no choice. There just aren't enough quality players in the field to pick one who might play poorly. There is reason to have Lee here, though, as he's a two-time winner of this event. Can anyone else in the field say that? I didn't think so. The problem with Lee, of course, is that he's fallen off the map in recent years. He may look like a sneaky option, but he failed to crack even the top 40 in his two most recent starts since his last win in 2022. If you're looking to gain ground with a sleeper, I'd look elsewhere. --Greg Vara
Spieth will be a popular selection as the hometown favorite at short odds. As such, picking him offers little separation from the field even if he contends. Add in zero top-10 finishes since the 2025 Memorial and a win drought stretching back to 2022 and the risk outweighs the reward. --Lauren Jump
As one of the top 10 betting choices on the boar, it's likely Thorbjornsen will be a somewhat-popular choice. I think that there will be better spots to use him, as the form has dropped off and he missed the cut at Aronimink by seven shots. With this likely being more of a putting contest than usual, it's hard to bank on a golfer that's 134th in that category this year. --Ryan Pohle
Only a few players have shorter odds than Coody, who enters this event 43rd in the FedExCup Standings and 57th in the OWGR. However, his approach numbers have been dreadful in recent weeks and he really has not made up for them elsewhere. Coody got off to a fast start this season, but he's going in the wrong direction. --Kevin O'Brien
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