The CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Preview

Following a busy stretch of three consecutive marquee tournaments, the PGA Tour heads to Texas for two weeks for a pair of non-elevated events starting with this week's The CJ CUP Byron Nelson just north of Dallas in McKinney. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines a field that includes only three players in the top-50 of the OWGR and creates an opportunity for lesser-known golfers to kick start their summer. Last year, Scheffler (+280) won by a whopping eight strokes over Erik van Rooyen for his first win of the year. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 PM ET Wednesday

Course Overview

Par 71, 7,385 yards

These are the average rankings of the winners at TPC Craig Ranch since 2021:

• SG: Off-the-Tee: 12.8
• SG: Approach: 10.4
• SG: Around-the-Green: 25.0
• SG: Putting: 14.2
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 2.4
• Driving Distance: 25.8
• Driving Accuracy: 28.2

Since this event moved to Craig Ranch in 2021, it has been an absolute birdie-fest with the winning score reaching 23-under all five years. Scheffler taking it to 31-under last year led to a course renovation thereafter in hopes of making it more difficult, notably tightening landing areas off the tee. Last year, 12 of the 18 holes played under-par, with players basically just looking to avoid bogeys on three par-3s that play over 215 yards. The three par-5s all played over a half-shot under-par, and the short par-4 sixth and 14th holes can be driveable. Looking at the metrics above, nothing really jumps off the page, and I think the redesign is going to favor accurate hitters even more so than the past. In addition to birdie makers and accurate drivers, I think this is a good week to target strong putters as well as those that hit their irons well from 175-225 yards. 

Course History

The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC Craig Ranch over the last five years (minimum eight rounds played):

• Scottie Scheffler: 66.4
• Jordan Spieth: 66.9
• Eric Cole: 67.0
• K.H. Lee: 67.1
• Si Woo Kim: 67.4

Scheffler continues to play his hometown tournament despite it not being a signature event, and the defending champion tops the list having also posted a top-5 in 2023. He gained nearly 13 shots on approach alone last year as he looks to break his stretch of nine consecutive tournaments without a win. At +168, these are the shortest odds he's ever had entering an event. Another player that's shown form here is Cole, who has shot in the 60s in seven out of eight rounds played, highlighted by a T5 result last year. The 37-year-old continues to struggle with driver but the rest of the game is in great form which has led to all three of his top-15s this year coming over his last three starts. He's a longshot to keep an eye on at 86-1.

Current Form

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:

• Scottie Scheffler: 2.37
• Brooks Koepka: 1.20
• Si Woo Kim: 0.97
• Jordan Smith: 0.89
• Jordan Spieth: 0.75

Right behind the overwhelming favorite on this list is Koepka, who at 69th in the FedExCup Standings is still in search of his breakthrough moment this year. The metrics indicate that the long game is still in good form, while he described his putting following the first round at Aronimink as continuing to be 'horrendous.' The fourth choice on the board at 25-1, Koepka missed the cut in his only appearance here in 2021. Speaking of players that have been let down by their putter, Spieth struggled on the greens last week but ranked third in SG: Tee-to-Green. And unlike Koepka, he's shown a few spike weeks putting this year but is still looking for his first top-10 as he searches to put everything together in the same week. Spieth has a great track record here with three top-10s across four appearances. 

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Outright Picks

Si Woo Kim (+1275)

It's easy to see why Kim's the second betting choice behind Scheffler as his ball striking has stood out this season, ranking in the top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach as well as driving accuracy. In five non-signature events/majors this year, Kim has finished no worse than T11 and was T2 here three years ago.

Keith Mitchell (37-1)

Mitchell will look to overpower TPC Craig Ranch with his driving play, where he ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth in Driving Distance – All Drives. At a place where you'll need to go low, Mitchell ranks a solid 32nd on Tour in birdie or better percentage.

Tom Kim (72-1)

Similar to Aaron Rai prior to his win last week, Kim is also coming off his best finish of the year in Myrtle Beach, where he ranked second in SG: Approach. He resides in nearby Dallas, so this is as close as he'll get to a hometown event. And we've seen some longshot winners here.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Austin Eckroat (+495)

Coming off a top-10 with Chris Gotterup last week, I'll star this section off with Eckroat. With a best result of T39 through his first eight starts this year, he's back trending in the right direction with three consecutive top-20 finishes. The two-time Tour winner has some good memories here, finishing one shot back in 2023.

Kris Ventura (+740)

Like many players in this range, Ventura has holes in his game. However, he has a great combination of length and accuracy off the tee and is prone to spike putting weeks. Ventura finished T2 last month alongside Kristoffer Reitan at the Zurich Classic.

Chandler Blanchet (+910)

Blanchet showed nerves to start his rookie campaign with five straight missed cuts but has played better since, finishing T44 in his second major appearance last week and was runner-up in Puerto Rico. Blanchet is gaining strokes off the tee and on approach this year and is 12th in driving accuracy.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup

Wyndham Clark (-102) over Michael Thorbjornsen

I'm not as confident as the oddsmakers are that Thorbjornsen should be the favorite in this matchup. He just missed the cut by seven shots at Aronimink and his lone top-10 this year came over three months ago. Outside of driving, Clark does everything better and has been in decent form of late with top-25s in three of his last four events. 

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Bets: First Round Leader

Karl Vilips (90-1)

Vilips goes off in the morning wave Thursday and enters in good form with three of his four top-25s this year coming across his last five events, which includes an event in Texas. The second-year Tour pro shot a six-under 65 in the first round here last year, and his strengths of above average distance and putting is a good combination for a low round.

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