3M Open Betting Preview
Blaine, Minnesota
TPC Twin Cities - Par 71 - 7,431 yards
Field - 144 entrants
Purse - $8.8M
Major championship season concluded with an unlikely champion emerging at Royal Birkdale in Ryan Fox, but a measly $8.8M purse in Minnesota hasn't stopped World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler from sticking to his commitment to this week's 3M Open, traveling from the United Kingdom to headline an otherwise relatively weak field at TPC Twin Cities where a plethora of water hazards can cause more frustration than any jet lag ever could. The 7,431-yard layout is more of a ball-striker's paradise than a spray-and-pray bomber's venue, with iron play factoring heavily into the equation as well (per usual). Six players reached the 20-under-par mark here in 2025, with Kurt Kitayama tallying 32 total birdies on the way to his one-shot victory.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:30 PM ET Wednesday
3M Open Bets: Outright Picks
Tom Kim (29-1)
You could make a legitimate argument that Kim should be the No. 2 favorite behind Scheffler, but we're getting a slight discount on the recent Genesis Scottish Open champion thanks to a missed cut last week at The Open Championship. Despite Kim's early trunk slam in England, he actually gained 3.84 strokes with his irons throughout just 36 holes at Royal Birkdale, ascending to fifth on Tour in SG: APP and 11th in proximity this season.
Ben James (51-1)
The four-time, first-team All American out of the University of Virginia just tied for fourth in his fifth PGA Tour start of the season at last week's Corales Puntacana Championship, where he ranked second among the field in GIR percentage and fifth in SG: APP en route to 22 total birdies. This came on the heels of another top-15 effort at the ISCO Championship, and he's been particularly superb with the putter from inside 15 feet.
Johnny Keefer (58-1)
One of Keefer's final hurdles for outright consideration was the ability to post simply even an average short-game performance literally anywhere, and he just gained a collective 8.38 strokes on and around the greens throughout eight rounds across the pond, placing T3-T59 at the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship in the process. He has gained strokes with his irons in seven consecutive starts dating back to a T9 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and Keefer joins Scheffler as the only two players to rank top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP this season.
3M Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (+570)
Neergaard-Petersen has gained more than a full stroke off the tee in 12 straight outings worldwide, and he's coming off a T9 against a major championship field at Royal Birkdale where he finished third in SG: T2G and fourth in SG: OTT. He's made seven consecutive cuts dating back to the PGA Championship, and his driving prowess should be plenty advantageous in Minnesota.
Emiliano Grillo (+770)
A horse for the course with five top-25 finishes in six career trips to TPC Twin Cities, including a pair of top-3s, Grillo's driving accuracy is rewarded around a track where trouble lurks early and often. He's riding a streak of three straight top-30 results from the RBC Canadian Open through the John Deere Classic, and Grillo is sixth among this field in overall proximity from 150-200 yards this season (min. 24 rounds).
3M Open Bets: Tournament Matchup
Hideki Matsuyama (+370) over Scottie Scheffler
A 20.39 percent no-vigorish implied probability feels a bit too low here, while I'd price Matsuyama closer to the 30-percent mark in this quest to slay the No. 1 player in the world. Scheffler is a 3M Open debutant and he looked lost with the putter throughout the first three rounds at Royal Birkdale last week. Meanwhile, Matsuyama, who's notched back-to-back T14s at the Travelers and The Open Championship, has improved to 28th in driving accuracy over his last 12 rounds, and we know long-iron play is a strength. Do I think Matsuyama's ceiling is anywhere close to that of Scheffler's? Obviously not. Do I think +370 is more than a fair price on this tournament matchup? Certainly.
3M Open Bets: Par 5 Winner
William Mouw (84-1)
Among the 111 players in this field with at least 30 rounds under their belts this season, Mouw ranks second in Par-5 Birdie or Better percentage, and he's coming off a T10 at the ISCO Championship where he gained a career-high 7.31 strokes on approach on the way to a T3 ranking in P5: BoB there in Kentucky. Mouw tied for seventh at last year's 3M Open, and he's fifth in SG: Ballstriking over his past 16 rounds.
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