This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Carolina Panthers 
team total over 21.0 (-115) at Atlanta Falcons
This number seems like an overreaction to the Panthers' non-effort vs. the Giants last week, where they scored only 3 points. The Panthers are no offensive powerhouse, but they are facing one of the league's worst defenses in a Dome environment this week. The Falcons rushing defense ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to running backs (a metric which leans towards touchdowns), while their passing defense ranks 29th vs. quarterbacks and 20th vs. wide receivers. I don't expect the Panthers to have much trouble moving the ball this week, and we're even getting a break with the number here, as the Panthers team total is listed at 21.5 (and higher) at other sportsbooks currently.
Cleveland Browns 
-4.0 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns get Nick Chubb (and Baker Mayfield) back this week, while D'Ernest Johnson looked great subbing for the injured Kareem Hunt last week and should perform well in his absence. Cleveland also gets some extra time to prepare, coming off the Thursday Night game last week. Meanwhile, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is one of the league's worst, and figures to have his hands full with the Browns fearsome pass rush this week. He's also generally worse on the road to begin with, and of course, the Browns crushed Pittsburgh in their latest meeting, heading to halftime with a 35-10 lead (in Pittsburgh). Bottom line, I just feel the Browns are a much better team and think this line should be closer to a touchdown than a field goal with the Browns back to near full-strength this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
-5.0 (-110) at New Orleans Saints
Speaking of better teams, here's another one. The Buccaneers lead the NFL in both passing yards (2331) and passing touchdowns (21), and figure to be in good shape even against the Saints' capable pass defense. On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccs rank first in rushing yards allowed, as well as third in yards per carry and touchdowns allowed. That figures to cause no end of trouble for the Saints, who gain only 3.9 yards per carry. The Saints also lack the passing game to effectively exploit the Buccaneers' only real weak spot, which of course is passing defense. The Saints rank next-to-last in passing yards, behind only the Bears. While the Buccaneers are definitely a better home club, this rates as a nice matchup for them, and I suspect they'll get the cover vs. an overmatched Saints team.
Player Props
Josh Allen over 29.5 rushing yards (-115)
Allen has covered this number in 4-of-6 games this year (another four yards last week, and it would've been 5-of-6), and his carry totals of 11 and 9 the past two weeks are his largest of the year. He also may be more inclined to run this week, with his emerging star TE Dawson Knox out of the lineup. Seems a good gamble.
Jonathan Taylor over 72.5 rushing yards (-120)
Taylor started the season slowly (much like last year), but has simply exploded over the last month, breaking the 100-yard barrier in 3 of his last 4 games. The only game in that span where he didn't was against Baltimore, perhaps because Taylor was busy posting 116 receiving yards in that game. For this week, he doesn't face the toughest matchup, as the Titans rushing defense ranks 25th in yards per carry allowed. That sets up well for the speedy Taylor, who has broken long runs of 38, 83, and 33 yards over the last four games. It's also worth noting that this is a hugely important divisional game for the Colts, and of course their offense revolves around Taylor. They figure to be leaning on him pretty hard in this one, as usual.
