This article is part of our Polarizing Players series.
It was just a couple years ago that Saquon Barkley was a top-3 fantasy pick. That's not the case anymore. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2018 with 2,083 scrimmage yards and 91 receptions. Since then, he's missed 21 of 47 games and his production has declined each season. As Barkley enters the last year of his rookie deal, he presents a bit of a quandary for fantasy managers in draft this season.
Upside
Barkley's best-case scenario is that he already has an elite season on his resume. He's dealt with myriad lower-body injuries in his career, and if he can regain the explosiveness of his rookie year, he'd be back in the mix as a top fantasy running back. Another factor is the Giants' offensive line, which was weak entering last year and then suffered many injuries. Playing with backups didn't help Barkley find space to run. If the Giants get offensive line line help in the draft and improved health from the returning starters, Barkley could find it easier getting past the first line of defenders, which would help him gain chunks of yardage with more regularity. Finally, after averaging 15.6 touches per game last season, Barkley needs to get back in the 22 range of his 2018 season.
Downside
Since averaging five yards per carry as a rookie, Barkley dropped to 4.6 in 2019 and 3.7 last year. Even though the offensive line wasn't very good, his backup, Devontae Booker, rushed for 4.1
It was just a couple years ago that Saquon Barkley was a top-3 fantasy pick. That's not the case anymore. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2018 with 2,083 scrimmage yards and 91 receptions. Since then, he's missed 21 of 47 games and his production has declined each season. As Barkley enters the last year of his rookie deal, he presents a bit of a quandary for fantasy managers in draft this season.
Upside
Barkley's best-case scenario is that he already has an elite season on his resume. He's dealt with myriad lower-body injuries in his career, and if he can regain the explosiveness of his rookie year, he'd be back in the mix as a top fantasy running back. Another factor is the Giants' offensive line, which was weak entering last year and then suffered many injuries. Playing with backups didn't help Barkley find space to run. If the Giants get offensive line line help in the draft and improved health from the returning starters, Barkley could find it easier getting past the first line of defenders, which would help him gain chunks of yardage with more regularity. Finally, after averaging 15.6 touches per game last season, Barkley needs to get back in the 22 range of his 2018 season.
Downside
Since averaging five yards per carry as a rookie, Barkley dropped to 4.6 in 2019 and 3.7 last year. Even though the offensive line wasn't very good, his backup, Devontae Booker, rushed for 4.1 yards per carry and earned 40 percent of the running back touches the last six games of 2021. In addition, Barkley ranked in the 32nd percentile in broken-tackle rate, the 34th percentile in yards after contact and the 39th percentile in yards after catch. Those below-average numbers suggest injuries have made Barkley a different player than when he entered the league. Should he continue to perform at last year's level while ceding significant work to backups, he would be more of a top-18 running back than a top-10 option.
The Verdict
It's often difficult to fade a player who has shown elite ability, even after multiple disappointing seasons. But because he has three consecutive underwhelming seasons, it seems reasonable to assume Barkley won't return to extreme volume or the five yards per carry he averaged in 2018. That uncertain ceiling makes him a risky pick as a top-8 running back. His floor, though, likely will give him reasonable value as an RB9-RB14 pick even though there's still risk. If he falls outside the top 14 at the position, he'll likely provide a strong return on investment.
