Many fantasy football managers in auction leagues know that fantasy football auction values can fluctuate greatly at times. Thus they base their fantasy football draft strategy on when auction values start to lock into place. This is a sensible approach, but it does lead to the question of when do fantasy football auction values become reliable? At what point can managers start to lock in their auction ranges?
This primer will discuss how ADP, projections and preseason news impact auction draft pricing. We start with why early auction values are less reliable, then shift to reviewing how ADP trends help stabilize auction pricing. We also dive into the impact of training camp and preseason reports, which leads to discussing when fantasy football cheat sheet auction values reach peak accuracy. We'll tie this all together by telling you how to effectively use auction values on draft day.
Why Early Auction Values Are Less Reliable
Early fantasy football auction values tend to be less reliable than later values because the initial pricing levels are heavily based on projections and limited live draft data. This makes early fantasy football rankings more broadly based, but the information is still useful for those who are looking to get a leg up on the competition.
The prime takeaway is that without stable ADP and clear roles, prices can fluctuate significantly in the offseason. As long as you keep that in mind when working in the RotoWire fantasy football draft kit at that time of year, you can get plenty of return on time investment.
"It's fortunate that early auction drafts are rare," said RotoWire fantasy football expert Jake Letarski. "A lot can happen in training camp, either performance or injury-based, that can cause auction values to fluctuate tremendously. The absolutely latest I'll sign up for a league running an auction is the last week in July, and even that is pushing it."
How ADP Trends Help Stabilize Auction Pricing
Usually, fantasy football ADP accuracy gets a huge boost in June and July, as that is when live draft volume dramatically increases. Once this shift in draft volume occurs, auction values begin to reflect real market demand, rather than highlighting general trends.
This is also the time of year when the RotoWire fantasy football mock draft software starts to become more useful. You should do at least a couple of early mock drafts once the live draft pace starts to pick up. The prime benefit is that you'll see the large differences between early ADP values and live draft values. Since many managers might not be up to speed on this, it can give you a notable edge in many auction leagues.
Impact of Training Camp and Preseason Reports
July is when auction values start to become much more reliable. This process begins when training camp battles commence. This provides much needed clarity on the NFL depth charts. It can also illustrate potential issues fantasy managers may face in the NFL injury report. All of these elements get a spike once preseason usage rates kick in.
That spike is why this is the time of year when your subscription to RotoWire is invaluable. RotoWire is your place for depth chart and injury report updates. That information is integrated across the entire set of tools available via this subscription. Once you get used to having all of this information at your finger tips, you'll never want to research or draft without it.
"Since the baseline of our auction values is projections, RotoWire is the quickest to adapt to any relevant preseason news," Letarski said. "If a player is injured, their entire position group on the depth chart will get adjusted, usually the day of, so you'll be working with the most up-to-date data for your drafts."
When Auction Values Reach Peak Accuracy
Auction values are typically most reliable in late August and early September. By this point of the fantasy draft season the RotoWire fantasy football projections, ADP values and injury reports blend together to create a more stable pricing environment.
At this time of year watch out for relatively small, yet impactful, auction value shifts. Try to find moves that can save you a couple of dollars in your auction budget. If you are able to stack this caliber of savings two or three times, it can give you more bidding flexibility in the later rounds of an auction draft.
"The most accurate projected auction values you'll find will literally be the day before the start of the regular season," said Letarski. "The second-most will be the day before that, and so on. At that point, we know who has made the team, who performed (or didn't) in the preseason and even have Week 1 Injury Report data to go by."
How to Effectively Use Auction Values on Draft Day
The bottom line for effectively using auction values on draft day is remember that these values are guidelines rather than fixed prices. These guidelines need to be adjusted for league tendencies and roster construction preferences.
It's also a very good idea to add the RotoWire fantasy football draft assistant to your draft day process. This is a huge time saver, but it can also help you quickly identify where auction value inflation is occurring. Avoiding this inflation and letting one of your competitors take the hit of this increased pricing can make your auction draft more enjoyable.
