This article will analyze offseason coaching and personnel moves in the AFC East to predict what it means for each team's offensive scheme in 2026, and what that means for fantasy football.
The Bills and Dolphins have new head coaches, and the Dolphins and Jets have new offensive playcallers. The Patriots retained their coaching staff, but their personnel moves were probably the most interesting in the division, highlighted by a trade for WR A.J. Brown.
This is the second part of an eight-article series, so be on the lookout for similar breakdowns over the next couple of weeks. You can find the first one below, covering the all-important AFC North:
AFC North Preview: 2026 Fantasy Impact of Coaching & Personnel Changes
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Buffalo Bills
- Key Coaching Changes: HC Joe Brady, OC Pete Carmichael, DC Jim Leonhard
- Key Losses: FB Reggie Gilliam
- Key Additions: WR DJ Moore, WR Skyler Bell (R4)
Joe Brady is moving up from offensive coordinator to head coach and still plans to call plays. His offensive coordinator, Pete Carmichael, held the same role in New Orleans from 2009 to 2023, handling play-calling duties for much of 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2021-23 (with mixed results). Brady overlapped with Carmichael for two years, serving as an offensive assistant for the Saints in 2017 and 2018.
The Bills traded for WR DJ Moore in March, but continuity is the theme for the rest of their offensive personnel, which makes sense after finishing second and fourth in scoring in Brady's two full seasons as the playcaller. Last year, Buffalo led the league in rush attempts (547), rushing yards (2,714) and rushing touchdowns (30) while also having the seventh-most TD passes (29) on the eighth-fewest pass attempts (495).
Brady may or may not prove a good head coach, but it shouldn't be too hard to understand why the Bills promoted him rather than risk losing him to another team. The biggest question now for fantasy football is whether Brady will continue to lean heavily on the run game or ask more from Allen's right arm on early downs.
Quick Hits - What to Expect from Buffalo's Offense
- More 12/13 personnel, fewer FB snaps.
- Higher pass rate on first down.
- Continuity. If it ain't broke...
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Personnel Changes
The Bills traded for WR DJ Moore and otherwise retained their own guys, with Curtis Samuel and Gabe Davis being the closest thing to noteworthy offseason departures at WR/TE (both Samuel and Davis remained unsigned well into summer).
Fullback/H-back Reggie Gilliam left for the division-rival Patriots this offseason, after taking 235 offensive snaps for Buffalo last year. The Bills have two FB/H-back candidates on their summer roster, but it's definitely possible that Gilliam's departure frees up more snaps for some combination of TEs Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes.
A reduction in 21 personnel (7.7% of snaps last year) and 22 personnel (13.3%) would presumably mean more 11/12/13, though Brady has also been known to mix in some less-common groupings, a la former mentor Sean Payton. A shift to more 12 or 13 personnel would especially make sense, given that Buffalo's TEs look stronger than the WRs.
What Will Change Structurally?
A lot will obviously look similar, given that the playcaller and most of the players are the same. On the other hand, both Joe Brady and Josh Allen have plenty of experience in successful pass-first offenses. There's been speculation—though never confirmation—that Brady wanted to throw more the past two seasons but was pressured by McDermott to go run-heavy, especially on first downs.
Last year, the Bills called run plays on a whopping 63.6 percent of first-down snaps pre-halftime, while no other team was north of 56.9 percent (Commanders). It mostly worked, as the Bills averaged 5.0 YPC, up from 4.5 YPC in 2024.
In 2024, the Bills also had an excellent rushing attack, but they called run plays on just 50.7 percent of first downs pre-halftime, ranking right around league average (50.3%).
A return to that balanced 2024 approach could boost some of Buffalo's pass catchers, and it might not hurt RB James Cook too much if he were to pick up a few extra targets as part of the bargain. It helps that the Bills run the ball effectively from both power formations and three-wide looks.
Last year, they used 11 personnel on 61.8% of snaps (league average was 56.3%), which might be a surprise to anyone who merely looked at their pass/rush numbers and saw the huge rushing stats. They don't necessarily need to use lighter personnel in order to throw the ball more often, but they are slightly better equipped for three-wide looks after trading for Moore.
It won't surprise if Brady puts more emphasis on the passing game and explosive plays, even though the ball-control approach worked well last year. What that looks like in terms of target distribution is less clear, with WR DJ Moore being the only guy who safely projects for a route share above ~70 percent and a consistent role in the major personnel groupings (almost certainly 11/12).
Just keep in mind that Moore is 29 years old and adjusting to a new scheme after a down season, so he won't necessarily have a strong target rate when he's on the field at the same time as Kincaid and Shakir. Those two already have QB/scheme familiarity and are in their mid-20s, plus they're much cheaper than Moore in fantasy drafts.
Miami Dolphins
- Key Coaching Changes: HC Jeff Hafley, OC Bobby Slowik, DC Sean Duggan
- Key Losses: WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Darren Waller, FB Alec Ingold
- Key Additions: QB Malik Willis, WR Caleb Douglas (R3), WR Chris Bell (R3), TE Will Kacmarek (R4), WR Tutu Atwell, WR Jalen Tolbert
Former Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley takes over in Miami, home of arguably the worst roster in the NFL. Bobby Slowik stays on as the new offensive coordinator and playcaller, after serving as the passing-game coordinator last year under Mike McDaniel.
Prior to that, Slowik was the offensive coordinator in Houston for CJ Stroud's big rookie season (and also his sophomore slump). The Texans moved on after two years, and Slowik now finds himself back in a playcalling role for a much lesser team.
Of note: Slowik came up as a defensive assistant under Mike Shanahan (2011-13) before eventually becoming an offensive assistant (2019-20) and passing-game coordinator (2022) under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco.
After fixing up their coaching staff this offseason, the Dolphins traded away WR Jaylen Waddle and signed QB Malik Willis while otherwise settling for smaller offseason moves. They brought in a league-high 13 draft picks, including two first-rounders (CB Chris Johnson, OT Kadyn Proctor).
Quick Hits - What to Expect from Miami's Offense
- Run-first, with a mix of outside-zone runs and shotgun/pistol option runs.
- May ditch fullback; mix of 11/12/13 personnel.
- Open competition for WR roles.
- RB2 involvement - Wright vs. Gordon?
Personnel Changes
Miami's offseason moves don't provide great hints about personnel groupings, because they've devoted minimal resources to both WR and TE. It's probably a situation where they'll be testing a bunch of stuff out to see what works well, rather than setting an intention to be heavy on any specific personnel grouping.
Early signs point to minimal fullback involvement after Alec Ingold followed McDaniel to Miami. The lone fullback on the roster for the start of training camp is undrafted rookie DJ Herman, who primarily played linebacker at SDSU.
On the other hand, Miami could mess around with some double-RB packages, if only because the WRs and TEs are so uninteresting. Then again, RB depth behind De'Von Achane doesn't exactly look like a strength, with Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright seemingly competing for the No. 2 spot again (neither ran away with the job last year). It does make sense to get one of those guys some carries, rather than exposing Achane to extra hits during a clear rebuilding year.
The other concerns for Achane? Efficiency/TD issues on a bad team, plus the threat of reduced targets alongside a mobile QB. The Dolphins are betting that Willis' speed can impact how defenses play Achane, opening up some big holes even against stacked boxes.
The wide receivers and tight ends aren't of much interest in most fantasy leagues, but TE Greg Dulcich at least makes for a decent sleeper, and WR Chris Bell (ACL) is a reasonable IR stash. Dulcich seems locked in as the top pass-catching TE, while WR snaps appear fully up for grabs. Rookie tight end Will Kacmarek is a candidate for a lot of snaps, but he's over 260 pounds and won't catch many passes even if he's on the field a lot.
What Will Change Structurally?
You don't sign a QB with Willis' speed and give him the league's worst receiving corps unless you're planning on a run-first offense that heavily emphasizes QB mobility. If that sounds like an odd fit given Slowik's history with pocket passers... well, yeah. The offense Slowik runs with Willis presumably will be very different from what Slowik prefers in a vacuum.
Still, we should expect to see some of the Shanahan/McDaniel influence. This is clearly an organization that's looking toward the future, so it wouldn't make sense to spend the entire season focusing on plays and concepts that will be thrown in the garbage bin next offseason if Willis is replaced by an early draft pick (as many expect) with lesser mobility.
Willis deserves a fair shake before we assume all of that, and he does have the advantage of having played under Matt LaFleur, who runs a similar system to Slowik (with a much better track record). Willis will be asked to work within that system at least some of the time, but we should also see drives/weeks when the Dolphins lean more heavily into the classic dual-threat QB stuff (zone-reads, RPOs, etc.) from shotgun/pistol formations.
New York Jets
- Key Coaching Changes: OC Frank Reich, DC Brian Duker
- Key Losses: WR John Metchie, QB Justin Fields
- Key Additions: QB Geno Smith, TE Kenyon Sadiq (R1), WR Omar Cooper (R1), QB Cade Klubnik (R4), WR Tim Patrick
Apparently not hip to the league-wide youth movement, the Jets are placing their offensive hopes in the hands of 35-year-old QB Geno Smith and 64-year-old play caller Frank Reich.
Will it work? Probably not. But even a semi-competent offense might be enough for talents like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall to help us in fantasy football.
Reich was last seen in the NFL as a head coach in 2023, when the Panthers fired him after Week 12. The Colts had fired him mid-season a year earlier, ending a four-plus-year tenure that included two playoff appearances. Before that, he was an offensive coordinator for the Chargers and Eagles, notably winning a Super Bowl with Philadelphia in 2017 (Doug Pederson called plays).
Quick Hits - What to Expect from Gang Green's Offense
- Mix of 11/12/13 Personnel, not much FB usage.
- Health and rookie development may dictate personnel packages.
- RPOs and other quick-hitters to WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall.
Personnel Changes
The Jets seem to like WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Mason Taylor, but not enough to stop them from using first-round picks on WR Omar Cooper and TE Kenyon Sadiq. If things play out the way the Jets hope, they'll have the necessary weapons for both 11 and 12 personnel this year. The Sadiq-Taylor combo at TE is especially appealing, though perhaps for the long run more so than September.
Otherwise, the Jets re-signed FB Andrew Beck on a one-year, $1.5 million contract this offseason, with $1.3 million guaranteed. He played only 110 offensive snaps last season, compared to 319 snaps on special teams. Beck may have a role in the offense, but it'll be tiny compared to the No. 2 TE or No. 3 WR. There's a good chance the No. 4 WR and No. 3 TE also get more snaps.
The backfield is essentially unchanged, with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis competing for backup work behind Breece Hall. With wideout Garrett Wilson back healthy for the offseason program, the Jets have no shortage of talent at RB/WR/TE.
What Will Change Structurally?
Frank Reich's four-plus seasons (2018-22) as the head coach for Indianapolis offer the clearest picture of what he does with complete control of an offense. He won't have had much say in the personnel he's working with in New York, but the scheme is in his hands, with a veteran QB coming in to install it.
In Reich's four full seasons with the Colts, they didn't roster a traditional fullback, instead relying on 11 personnel (63.3% vs. league average of 60.7%), 12 personnel (19.7% vs. league average of 19.9%) and 13 personnel (6.5% vs. league average of 3.7%). Those rates were fairly stable from year to year, though the Colts did shift toward more 11 in 2022 when Reich got fired midway through the season.
His first Colts team, led by Andrew Luck, was a pass-first outfit, but the Colts then finished bottom 10 in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in each of the next three seasons, cycling through Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz at QB.
In 2021, the Wentz season, Jonathan Taylor took 372 touches for 2,171 yards and 20 TDs. Passing-down back Nyheim Hines added 56 carries and 40 catches, remaining involved in the offense, though not to the same extent as when Marlon Mack had been the lead rusher (understandably).
In other words, Reich adapted the roles to his personnel more so than the other way around. He always had a third-down/hurry-up back who was separate from the lead runner, but that might have been a product of Hines being on the team. Also keep in mind that Reich was stuck with a rotating cast of immobile QBs—and generally middling skill-position talent—after getting just one season of Andrew Luck.
Reich's Colts teams were typically a bit below league-average for play-action rate and frequency of pre-snap motion, with the latter gap becoming more pronounced as other teams started to do it more. By the time he got to Carolina in 2023, the rest of the league was using more motion while Reich lagged way behind. (I'm putting less stock in that partial Carolina season, but it definitely adds validity to the concern about Reich.)
One interesting note: Reich semi-regularly used 13 personnel at a time when many coaches weren't using it at all. That'll surely be part of the Jets offense this season, though we should expect to see far more 11 and 12 personnel overall. One thing to watch for fantasy will be the division of 11-personnel TE snaps (Sadiq vs. Taylor) and the 12-personnel WR snaps (Mitchell vs. Cooper).
It's a safe bet Wilson and Hall will be hugely involved in both of the main groupings, given the huge drop-off between them and other weapons when it comes to proven production and experience.
New England Patriots
- Key Coaching Changes: None
- Key Losses: WR Stefon Diggs, TE Austin Hooper
- Key Additions: WR A.J. Brown, WR Romeo Doubs, FB Reggie Gilliam, TE Eli Raridon (R3)
The Patriots fascinate me despite not having a coaching change to evaluate, coming off a schedule-aided Super Bowl appearance. So many stats hint at regression, but there's also a ton of cause for optimism, both for fantasy purposes and for Pats fans.
After leading the league with 8.9 YPA last season, QB Drake Maye now gets to throw downfield to A.J. Brown (career 9.8 YPT) and Romeo Doubs. A tougher schedule might not matter if the Patriots have both Maye and Brown at the height of their powers.
Quick Hits - What to Expect from New England's Offense
- Run/pass balance, at least initially.
- Highly varied personnel groupings — mostly 11, 12 and 21, with 22 and 13 mixed in.
- More 11 and 21 personnel, less 12/13?
Personnel Changes
The Patriots moved mountains to bring in WR A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, who now sit atop a well-stocked WR depth chart that also includes Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins and DeMario Douglas. Their 11-personnel lineups look strong, and perhaps varied, but that doesn't mean the Patriots are all-in on airing it out this year.
They also spent a decent chunk of change to improve their blocking at the skill positions, signing FB Reggie Gilliam ($6M guaranteed) and TE Julian Hill ($7.5M gtd), though the latter suffered a season-ending knee injury during OTAs.
Hill's absence could nudge the Patriots more in the air-it-out direction (and toward more 11 personnel), but we still saw that intent to acquire power/blocking this offseason, with block-first Hill replacing catch-first Austin Hooper, on top of the Gilliam signing. With Hill out of the picture, the Patriots could give rookie third-round pick Eli Raridon a shot in multi-TE looks, leaning back toward personnel that's more favorable for throwing the ball (11 or 12).
Last year, the Patriots ran 50.5% of snaps from 11 personnel, 23.5% from 12 personnel, 15.8% from 21 personnel, 5.3% from 22 personnel, and 3.3% from 13 personnel.
What Will Change Structurally?
The first thing to know here is that the Patriots finished the 2025 regular season ranked second in Pass Rate Over Expectation (+3.9%). They attempted just 502 passes (23rd), but that's because they often held leads and also had Drake Maye turning more than 10 percent of his dropbacks into scrambles. Few teams were more likely to call a pass play in neutral situations, yet most of the league ended up throwing more passes.
The Patriots also seem to have accurately diagnosed their weaknesses, as seen with the offseason moves above. They now have WRs who can regularly win one-on-one matchups, and reason to hope for an improved running game.
If things go according to plan, the Patriots will probably dial up more running plays than fantasy managers are hoping for (unless they took Rhamondre Stevenson). That might also mean being somewhat cautious with A.J. Brown's bulky knee — a possibility that's exacerbated by the strong WR depth.
If things don't go according to plan, Josh McDaniels might try to channel the late Brady years with a pass-heavy offense that asks Maye and Brown to carry the team — something they might be capable of.
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