This article is part of our Polarizing Players series.
Patrick Mahomes threw 50 touchdown passes in his only 5,000-yard season in 2018 but hasn't surpassed 38 TDs in any of the last three seasons. Now, he's without Tyreek Hill. After being the consensus No. 1 quarterback in fantasy drafts the last few years, is it time to move him down draft boards?
Upside
It's possible that Mahomes' 2018 season, which was his first as a starter, was his career year. Since he's accomplished that, he technically has that type of season as his potential upside. However, he's thrown for 37 and 38 TDs the last two seasons, so that's more likely his current ceiling. He benefits from Andy Reid's coaching — expect a creative passing attack that takes what defenses gives them when opponents drop their safeties deep to limit the big play. To reach his ceiling, Mahomes will need Travis Kelce, who turns 33 early in the season, to maintain an elite level of play. He'll also need JuJu Smith-Schuster to resume the production he had early in his career. In addition, Mecole Hardman needs to improve after being moved down the depth chart last season.
Downside
Despite playing well in the playoffs, Mahomes wasn't great last year. He threw for fewer than 280 yards 12 times while throwing no more than two TD passes in 10 of the last 13 games. He had his biggest struggles Weeks 7-13 when he threw one or fewer TD passes five times. He's now without possibly the most explosive
Patrick Mahomes threw 50 touchdown passes in his only 5,000-yard season in 2018 but hasn't surpassed 38 TDs in any of the last three seasons. Now, he's without Tyreek Hill. After being the consensus No. 1 quarterback in fantasy drafts the last few years, is it time to move him down draft boards?
Upside
It's possible that Mahomes' 2018 season, which was his first as a starter, was his career year. Since he's accomplished that, he technically has that type of season as his potential upside. However, he's thrown for 37 and 38 TDs the last two seasons, so that's more likely his current ceiling. He benefits from Andy Reid's coaching — expect a creative passing attack that takes what defenses gives them when opponents drop their safeties deep to limit the big play. To reach his ceiling, Mahomes will need Travis Kelce, who turns 33 early in the season, to maintain an elite level of play. He'll also need JuJu Smith-Schuster to resume the production he had early in his career. In addition, Mecole Hardman needs to improve after being moved down the depth chart last season.
Downside
Despite playing well in the playoffs, Mahomes wasn't great last year. He threw for fewer than 280 yards 12 times while throwing no more than two TD passes in 10 of the last 13 games. He had his biggest struggles Weeks 7-13 when he threw one or fewer TD passes five times. He's now without possibly the most explosive player in the league in Tyreek Hill. It's also possible that Kelce will show decline as he ages. With defenses expected to often play both safeties deep to take away big plays, Mahomes might have to check the ball down more than ever, and his receivers might not consistently make big plays to boost Mahomes' stats. It's possible that he continues to produce as he did in the second half of last year, which would make him more of a top-6 option at QB.
The Verdict
There's no questioning Mahomes' talent, but the limitations he showed last year may continue. He'll also find it impossible to replace Hill. Unless Mahomes falls to a draft range where the majority of the top-8 QBs are being selected, it's unlikely he'll provide fair value.
