Dalton Schultz has been targeted 104 times in each of the last two years while seeing his yardage go from 615 to 808. Will he remain a strong fantasy option or is regression on the way?
Upside
What's not to like? Schultz's production has grown exponentially each year he's played. He was a reliable target for Dak Prescott both in the middle of the field and in the red zone. He's scored one more touchdown than CeeDee Lamb the last two years. In the last six games of 2021, he posted more yardage than Amari Cooper and fell just 22 yards short of Lamb. He also surpassed 50 yards on 10 occasions last year. If he continues that level of production, he'll finish as a top-six tight end who has few bad games.
Downside
When defenses had to worry about both Lamb and Cooper, they often lacked the resources to place attention on Schultz. Many of his catches came when he was wide open in the middle of the field. With Cooper now in Cleveland, defenses will have just one elite receiver to worry about. If Schultz doesn't have the space for easy catch and run opportunities, Prescott could easily spread the ball around to Lamb, Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert. That could lead to Schultz's targets dropping from more than 100 to closer to 80 while his yards per reception takes a hit as well. This could lead to him finishing in the 600-yard range.
The Verdict
He'll
Dalton Schultz has been targeted 104 times in each of the last two years while seeing his yardage go from 615 to 808. Will he remain a strong fantasy option or is regression on the way?
Upside
What's not to like? Schultz's production has grown exponentially each year he's played. He was a reliable target for Dak Prescott both in the middle of the field and in the red zone. He's scored one more touchdown than CeeDee Lamb the last two years. In the last six games of 2021, he posted more yardage than Amari Cooper and fell just 22 yards short of Lamb. He also surpassed 50 yards on 10 occasions last year. If he continues that level of production, he'll finish as a top-six tight end who has few bad games.
Downside
When defenses had to worry about both Lamb and Cooper, they often lacked the resources to place attention on Schultz. Many of his catches came when he was wide open in the middle of the field. With Cooper now in Cleveland, defenses will have just one elite receiver to worry about. If Schultz doesn't have the space for easy catch and run opportunities, Prescott could easily spread the ball around to Lamb, Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert. That could lead to Schultz's targets dropping from more than 100 to closer to 80 while his yards per reception takes a hit as well. This could lead to him finishing in the 600-yard range.
The Verdict
He'll have a decent number of good weeks, but it's unlikely he has the high-floor games as consistently as he did in 2021. Also, as Gallup rounds into form from last year's ACL injury, and Tolbert's role grows in the offense, it's easy to see Schultz's targets tailing off as the season goes on. If he's falls outside the top-7 tight ends in drafts, he'll be reasonably priced, but if he's selected higher, I expect him to be a disappointment.
