In some drafts this summer, Aaron Jones is being selected outside the top-18 players. Is he fairly priced, or does he have another season of top-end production on the way?
Upside
After the Packers traded Davante Adams, Jones appears to be Aaron Rodgers' top playmaker. And even as a running back, he might be the best receiver on the team. In eight games without Adams, Jones had ridiculous production, posting an additional eight PPR points, two receptions and 31 receiving yards over his numbers in games played with Adams. Sure, he'll cede rushing attempts to AJ Dillon, but Jones might not just see his targets out of the backfield increase, and don't be surprised if he's often lined up as a wide receiver. He's been targeted 63 to 68 times the last three years, but that number could exceed 80. We could be looking at peak Alvin Kamara type production from Jones.
Downside
If Jones doesn't see a boost in his receiving production, it's unlikely his rushing work will bounce back to his 2019-2020 levels, when he averaged nearly 1,100 yards and 12.5 rushing TDs. AJ Dillon is here to stay in the backfield rotation. After Dillon had 46 carries as a rookie, he had 187 last year, which was 16 more than Jones. And the goal-line work went in Dillon's favor as well, as he scored one more rushing TD than Jones. Between losing carries and red-zone work, if Jones sees a similar target share to the
In some drafts this summer, Aaron Jones is being selected outside the top-18 players. Is he fairly priced, or does he have another season of top-end production on the way?
Upside
After the Packers traded Davante Adams, Jones appears to be Aaron Rodgers' top playmaker. And even as a running back, he might be the best receiver on the team. In eight games without Adams, Jones had ridiculous production, posting an additional eight PPR points, two receptions and 31 receiving yards over his numbers in games played with Adams. Sure, he'll cede rushing attempts to AJ Dillon, but Jones might not just see his targets out of the backfield increase, and don't be surprised if he's often lined up as a wide receiver. He's been targeted 63 to 68 times the last three years, but that number could exceed 80. We could be looking at peak Alvin Kamara type production from Jones.
Downside
If Jones doesn't see a boost in his receiving production, it's unlikely his rushing work will bounce back to his 2019-2020 levels, when he averaged nearly 1,100 yards and 12.5 rushing TDs. AJ Dillon is here to stay in the backfield rotation. After Dillon had 46 carries as a rookie, he had 187 last year, which was 16 more than Jones. And the goal-line work went in Dillon's favor as well, as he scored one more rushing TD than Jones. Between losing carries and red-zone work, if Jones sees a similar target share to the last three years, he could end up outside the top-15 RBs.
The Verdict
The Packers are in a championship window. Time is starting to tick toward the end of Aaron Rodgers' career. It's tough to imagine any other player on the Packers can challenge Jones as the team's top playmaker. Although he'll cede rushing attempts to Dillon, he likely will be featured as a receiver. He should be a staple of the offense in high-leverage situations. As a result, I expect Jones to finish the year as a top-8 running back.
