This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week 7-3 +2.14
Overall 19-12 (14-4 last 2 weeks) +2.8
New York Jets 
vs. Atlanta Falcons 
I went with the Jets +6 last week and they won outright. I like them again this week as they get another weak defense and suspect offense. The Falcons are without Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage this week and the Jets pass defense has been respectable this season.
The Falcons are just 3-11 in their last 14 games in which they were favored between 1 and 3 points. For as bad as the Jets have been recently, they are 4-3 SU as dogs between 1-3 points in their last 7 games.
I am not going to lay -118 to get +3 when I can get +126 on the moneyline.
BET - Jets ML (+126) for 1 RW buck
New England Patriots 
vs. Houston Texans 
I am a broken record when it comes to the Patriots. I said bet them under every week and so far the under is 4-0 and about to be 5-0. The Patriots have gone under in 10 out of their last 12 games.
Bill Belichick's record against rookie quarterbacks is well known and Davis Mills has looked overmatched in his first two starts.
I am backing off the game total going under this week for fear that the Patriots defense/special teams end up scoring a touchdown or two pushing it over. But I do feel confident in the Texans being held under 14.5 points.
BET – Texans under 14.5 (-110) for 1 RW buck
Philadelphia Eagles 
vs. Carolina Panthers 
DJ Moore has at least 6 receptions in each game this year and 8 in the last 3 in a row. His targets have been 8, 11, 12, and 12. With Christian McCaffrey out again this week, I would expect the same workload for Moore. His receiving yards have been 80, 79, 126, and 113.
BET – DJ Moore over 6.5 receptions (+120) for 1 RW buck
BET – DJ Moore over 85.5 receiving yards (-113) for 1 RW buck
Cleveland Browns 
vs. Los Angeles Chargers 
This total has come down after opening at 49.5 and is currently at 47.5. 48 is a key number in the NFL so this line move is significant.
The Chargers are 4-0 to the under this year and 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games. The Browns have gone under in 4 out of their last 6 road games.
The key for me is what is going on over the last two weeks since Baker Mayfield tore his labrum. His completion rate was 82%, but only 53% the last 2 weeks.
The Browns are going to lean heavily on the run game and limit the number of passing attempts for Mayfield. The Chargers ranked 25th in DVOA against the run. This should slow the game down and making it an under play. Mayfield has only throw multiple touchdowns in 1 out of his last 8 games.
The recipe to beat the Chargers is running the ball and pressuring Justin Herbert which has this matchup tailor-made for the Browns.
BET – Mayfield under 1.5 touchdown passes (-130) for 0.5 RW buck
BET - Browns/Chargers Under 47.5 (-114) for 1 RW buck
BET – Browns ML (+112) for 1 RW buck
Dallas Cowboys 
vs. New York Giants 
The Cowboys have gone over the total in 3 out of 4 games this year while averaging 31.5 points per game. The over has hit in the last 5 Cowboys home games and is 14-6 in the last 20. They have scored at least 36 points in the last 4 home games. In the last 4 out of 5 head-to-head matchups the total has gone over.
BET – Cowboys over 30.5 points (-108) for 1 RW buck
Miami Dolphins 
vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Will Fuller has been placed on IR (big surprise), opening up targets for Jaylen Waddle. Waddle has gone over his 52.5 receiving yards prop in 2 out of 4 games but just missed in one of those games with 48 yards. The Bucs passing defense is 32nd in the league and their secondary has been ravaged with injuries. Teams don't even bother trying to run on the Bucs which leads to significantly more passing attempts.
BET - Jaylen Waddle over 52.5 receiving yards (-113) for 1 RW buck
Chicago Bears 
vs. Los Angeles Raiders 
Renfrow has turned into one of the most consistent wide receivers in the NFL and with Derek Carr throwing it a ton, he has been a lock for 5-6 receptions on 6-9 targets. The Bears are allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and have allowed 5 receivers to catch at least 5 passes in a game.
BET – Hunter Renfrow over 4.5 receptions (-114) for 1 RW buck
