This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Sports betting is set to go live in North Carolina on March 11, with signups open on the first. Aside from this becoming available to all residents of the state, the lovely word there is March. This means brackets, upsets and three weeks of NCAA Tournament fun, so what better way to get ready than taking a peek at the state's two blue-blood programs, and considering options for a potential nice payout to kick things off.
Obviously, we've still got a couple regular-season games remaining, so these odds will change with results, and the ACC Tournament bracket becoming set. We'll consider odds, effective March 1, from FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM and ESPN Bet, with the best odds available listed here. It's imperative to shop lines for these futures bets, as they will vary greatly. Betting options vary across the books as well
Duke Postseaon Odds
- National Champion (+3000, Caesars Sportsbook)
- Final Four (+450, FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Sweet 16 (TBD)
- #1 Seed (+2000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
- ACC Tournament Champion (TBD)
When considering Duke's postseason potential, the first thing that stands out is it ranks eighth in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, which are essentially required metrics in picking the National Champion. So, they're in the discussion. The Blue Devils were playing their best ball of the year prior to a loss to Wake Forest and can better their seeding with a win over UNC in the regular-season finale, and/or a winning showing in Washington D.C. for the ACC Tournament.
I think that's paramount to their chances. Currently, I don't believe Duke has a marquee win, losing at home to Arizona while beating Michigan State and Baylor on neutral courts. That's the extent of their resume, and if you buy the national narrative that the ACC is down, there's concern over their ability to make a deep run and/or beat a higher seed. With a current projection as a four-seed, that makes it a difficult path to even reach the tournament's second weekend with a likely matchup against a similar opponent in the second round, then forced to face a likely No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16. But if they close the year successfully and get into the No. 3 or possibly even the No. 2 seed, chances increase (and odds decrease). As such, it's a pause for me until after their rematch with the Tar Heels.
That said, talent is not a question here, and health appears to be getting better. If the ACC Tournament started today, Duke could face a Pittsburgh team that upset them in Cameron Indoor, but they handled easily on the road. They'd avoid both Clemson and Wake Forest, as well as Florida State and their length. That draw looks favorable to me. As such, my favorite bets for the Blue Devils aren't currently on the board. But give me them to win the ACC Tournament, improve their seeding, and make it to the Sweet 16. Sprinkling a little on a Final Four run doesn't hurt my feelings, but nothing shown to date suggests the Blue Devils are true National Title contenders.
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North Carolina Postseason Odds
- National Champion (+2300, FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Final Four (+430, FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Sweet 16 (TBD)
- #1 Seed (+1100, FanDuel Sportsbook)
- ACC Tournament Champion (TBD)
To show you how much odds change, North Carolina opened the season at +400 to win the ACC's regular season, and now sit at -750, while Duke has gone from -130 to +350. It's safe to say UNC's preseason expectations were low off a down year, maybe somewhat unfairly, and have elevated to points that may be too great given mid-to-late February form, where their defense has appeared to suffer.
Overall, the Tar Heels check all the boxes. They rank 25th in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency, even if that latter number doesn't pass the eye test. Every team suffers odd conference losses, but UNC impressed during the non-conference season, only losing early to Villanova, and falling to Kentucky and UConn. You can argue the only game they didn't really have a chance in was against the Huskies. They are a veteran team across the board, can beat you inside and outside, and seemingly fast or slow. And they successfully used their depth in first halves to keep starters fresh and wear teams down during a 10-game winning streak. Their average margin of defeat is 4.8 points, which falls to 3.6 by removing UConn. They're in every game.
Are they capable of winning the National Championship? I'd say absolutely so, and that's arguably the main reason Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis are still on this team. You're not looking for likely when betting at +2300, so that's a fair bet, especially when considering the lack of tournament success from team's in their range (Purdue, Marquette, Tennessee, Alabama, Houston, Iowa State and Arizona have all been programs prone to upsets recently).
The Heels seem locked into a No. 2 seed at worst, meaning they'll need to win three games as favorites and upset a No. 1 seed at the most to reach the Final Four. Certainly doable, but aside from the draw, UNC's inability to close out games of late worries me. Will their veteran leaders step up and stave off upsets? Likely playing their first two games in Charlotte absolutely helps.
The one bet that really sticks out to me however is the Tar Heels' earning a No. 1 seed in the tournament. It's widely assumed that Connecticut, Purdue and Houston have three of those four spots locked up, with Arizona and Tennessee next in line. If either end up as conference and tournament champs, this is moot. Remember, UNC beat Tennessee during the regular season. Say the Heels face Duke twice more, win one, and are at least regular season, if not ACC Tournament, champions? Their argument for a No. 1 would be as strong as any, and at +1100, especially paired with Tennessee having a gauntlet to go through in the SEC. Perhaps UNC just needs Arizona to slip up once. I like that as a long shot more than them to cut down the nets at the end of the season.
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As far as other teams, North Carolina State seems unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament, and hasn't shown enough to think an ACC Tournament run is in play. Wake Forest, on the other hand, is interesting. I'm not sure they have the depth to win in D.C. knowing the Demon Deacons will have to play an extra game, but if they solidify their tournament bid, they're a dangerous team that is capable of winning two games and reaching the Sweet 16. They're fun to watch, and that'd be a fun bet to sprinkle a little on at long odds.
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