This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
After Tuesday's whopper, we're back to a pretty standard mid-week slate and prizes. DraftKings as $2,000 for a first-place winner Wednesday, with a nine-game slate tipping off at 6:30 p.m. EST, spanning until 8:30.
We've got two games with totals north of 150 points, lead by a heavily-favored Miami against Louisville at 158.5. Only Tennessee-Mississippi state has a total under 140 points, and it sits at 139.5, so we're pretty tightly packed, which means we should be able to target everyone.
There is a seven-game evening slate tipping at 9:00 that only offers a $500 first-place prize. It's not worth ignoring, as it's a great chance to practice your skills, try some lineup builds you may not be comfortable with, and become more familiar with the teams playing late in the evening. That just won't be the focus Wednesday.
Top Players
Hunter Dickinson, F, Kansas ($9,800)
As this column evolved, it felt like there was enough value throughout the slate where we can go all the way up to Dickinson. He's on a terrific roll right now, posting at least 36.5 DKP in eight of nine, four times going for at least 48.25 DKP. We successfully targeted UCF over the weekend, both for DFS and me personally for betting purposes, and I'm hung up on the Knights struggling in conference regularly as they move up in class, similar to their football team. The Knights have some size, but neither of their two options play more than 18 minutes, and they don't have the skill to slow down Dickinson outside of fouling. It feels like a get-right spot for teammate Kevin McCullar as well, and UNC is in a positive spot for scoring, putting R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot firmly on radars. They work well, but it could lead to lower roster percentages on Dickinson if you can squeeze him in.
Matt Cleveland, G, Miami ($7,900)
Consider this a placeholder more than a recommendation for Cleveland solely. He's a fine play in it of itself, averaging 30.0 DKP across the Hurricanes' last eight. But we're really going to have to track the availability of his teammates, as this is a clear smash spot for the Hurricanes, who could flirt with 90 points against a Louisville team we routinely pick on, ranking 245th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Norchad Omier seems like he'll be fine to play, but how much do the 'Canes need him given the expected blowout? Nijel Pack seems more iffy, but the price has fallen to where he'd be interesting if others are out. Wooga Poplar is also a game-time decision, and personally, I don't feel he'll be needed, and one more game out would be beneficial. That opens up Kyshawn George and Bensley Joseph, the latter of which would be my preferred low-rostered option. The point is we want a Hurricane in our lineup, we just need to see who is in and who isn't before finalizing which piece(s) we use.
Middle Tier
Sean Pedulla, G, Virginia Tech ($5,900)
We hit big over the weekend by targeting Pedulla at Florida State, where he gave us a 5.3x return. The price has only increased $100, and while the matchup isn't quite as solid, it's far from scary. FSU ranks 73rd defensively, and Clemson here ranks 50th. We've got a narrow, one-point spread, and Pedulla should again be the focal point of what the Hokies do offensively. The minutes he saw Saturday (34) show he's back to full health, and he comes with a massive 31.9 percent usage rate over his last five. I'm comfortable riding him nightly until the price rises at least $600 more.
Dalton Knecht, G, Tennessee ($5,300)
Make no mistake, Knecht is in a funk right now. Since erupting for 55.5 DKP at UNC, Knecht has posted 122.75 DKP total in his last seven games, averaging just 9.9 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists. Mississippi State ranks 11th defensively and 187th in tempo, as well as eighth in both effective field goal percentage and eighth in 3-point percentage defense, so it's an ugly spot as well. On the brights side, that means the price is down $2,900 from its peak, and it's so low the risk is virtually eliminated. Surely we can get to a 3x return or better, right?
Bargain Options
Luke Hunger, F, Northwestern ($4,000)
Hunger appears to be emerging. He earned 15 DKP against Illinois, scoring 10 points in 18 minutes, and was rewarded with his first start of the season over the weekend, responding with 10 points and four boards in 19 minutes on his way to 20.5 DKP. There's certainly volatility, having posted just 16.25 DKP in his previous four combined, but if the coaching staff again trusts him to start, perhaps we can in our lineups too. His size could be valued to combat Penn Stat's Qudus Wahab, but that also could result in foul trouble. It's another close spread and decent total spot where the Wildcats should score 70+, and Penn State's pace is up under new head coach Mike Rhoades, ranking 53rd nationally.
Corey Floyd, G, Providence ($3,900)
This is a complete punt play that may provide some return, but really just opens up salary to spend elsewhere. Floyd got the start for Providence in its first game without Bryce Hopkins. He played 29 minutes and did absolutely nothing, finishing with a 10.8 percent usage rate and 5.5 DKP. The Friars got just 33 minutes total out of their bench, however, so it seems unlikely they'll have better options here. Providence isn't expected to score over 70 thanks to St. John's 54th-ranked defense, but the Red Storm do play fast enough to help us out. The Providence offense is two players at this point, so it's going to be a stretch to get even a 3x return. If it gets us more high-end options who hit 5 or 6x, it can still work.
