March Madness 2026 Preview: South Region Picks & Predictions

March Madness 2026 Preview: South Region Picks & Predictions

The NCAA Tournament South Region features both the reigning national champions as well as last year's runner-up. Jesse Siegel breaks it down and offers his Final Four and upset picks.

Check out the rest of RotoWire's NCAA Tournament preview series here:

East Region NCAA Tournament Preview
West Region NCAA Tournament Preview
Midwest Region NCAA Tournament Preview
South Region NCAA Tournament Preview

SOUTH REGION PREVIEW

The South region features the defending champion Florida Gators, slightly revamped from their title run a season ago but no less dangerous.  Whereas last year's squad was guard-heavy, this year's version has arguably the top frontcourt in the country with Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu.  The starting guards are transfers but far from slouches, though, with Boogie Fland from Arkansas and Xaivian Lee looking to carry the torch this time around.

The NCAA Selection Committee says they do not look ahead at potential matchups.  But a rematch of last year's title game, Florida vs. Houston, looms this time in the Elite 8 of the South region.  No. 2 seed Houston spent some time atop the rankings earlier this season, but could not get past Arizona, losing to the Wildcats twice, including in the Big12 Tournament Championship. Aside from those two losses to Arizona, though, Houston only lost four other times on the entire season.  Houston has a sensational backcourt led by freshman sensation Kingston Flemings (more on him below).

Regarding the lower seeds, No. 14 Penn had perhaps the most stunning run to secure an automatic bid out of the Ivy League.  The Quakers posted upset wins over Harvard and Yale, respectively, the triumph against the latter coming on the back of a staggering 44 points from transfer TJ Power.  With leading scorer Ethan Roberts out of the Ivy League Tournament with a concussion, Power lit up the scoreboard with seven treys and nine free throws en route to the shocking victory.  Power had stops at both Duke and Virginia prior to UPenn.  The classic upset pick will be the 12-5 game; more on those squads and that matchup below.

Let's take a closer look at the players, coaches and matchups that will ultimately decide the fate of the South region.

Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest NCAA Tournament team previews for the field of 68, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.

FAVORITES IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT SOUTH REGION

No. 1 Florida – As discussed above, the Gators won it all just a season ago, and despite some struggles during the middle portion of the season, regained their mojo before a surprising loss to Vandy in the SEC Tournament.  Still, the overall body of work was stellar enough to notch the No. 1 seed, and Florida's path looks fairly reasonable looking forward, at least up to the Elite 8.

No. 2 Houston – Perhaps the only squad battle-tested enough to stand in Florida's way is the Houston Cougars.  The Cougs have three stellar guards in the form of the aforementioned Flemings, along with experienced veterans Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan.  Center Chris Cenac gives the Cougars some muscle down low and would be asked to shoulder the frontcourt load, with a hand from heart and soul Joseph Tugler, should Houston meet Florida in the Regional Final.

No. 3 Illinois – The Illini possess a dazzling freshmen duo of their own in point guard Keaton Wagler and power forward David Mirkovic.  Add in the Ivisic brothers at center, and Illinois is physical, high-scoring and amongst the top rebounding teams in the land.  Illinois finished 15-5 in arguably the most competitive conference in all of college basketball.

No. 4 Nebraska – The Cornhuskers also finished 15-5 in Big Ten Conference action, posting one of the best seasons in school history.  The Cornhuskers have never won a game in the NCAA Tournament.  Yes, you read that correctly.  Coach Fred Hoiberg has his son, Sam Hoiberg, on the roster as a Swiss Army knife type of player, though the strength of this squad is the frontcourt tandem of Pryce Sandfort and Rienk Mast.

MARCH MADNESS CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 11 VCU – The Rams enter the big dance as one of the hottest teams in the country, winners of 16 of their last 17 contests, which included a run to Atlantic 10 Tournament crown.  The Rams have a lot of new faces, but sophomore Terrence Hill, the leading scorer for VCU despite coming off the bench, usually sets the tone.

No. 12 McNeese – Amir "Aura" Khan is up to his old antics, as the Cowboys return to March Madness yet again, winners of 10-straight contests coming into the tournament.  6-4 freshman Larry Johnson (no relation to Grandmama) is the athletic leading scorer for this squad, but the Cowboys employ a unique four-guard lineup where their listed power forward, Garwey Dual, leads the team in assists.

BIGGEST BUST IN THE SOUTH REGION

No. 6 North Carolina – The Tar Heels looked like a juggernaut earlier in the season but lost incredible freshman Caleb Wilson to injury.  UNC went just 5-4 to end the season without Wilson, and even if the Heels somehow advance over VCU, they will face an elite Illinois team that has run the Big Ten gauntlet about as well as anyone.  The Heels have the storied history, but this iteration is missing its biggest star and looks ticketed for an early exit in 2026.

Want to see how the latest injuries might affect the top seeds in the NCAA Tournament? Head on over to RotoWire's college basketball injury report.

FIRST-ROUND UPSET

No. 12 McNeese vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt –  For the record, I almost don't consider these 12-5 trap games as upsets anymore.  Or the 11-6 games for that matter.  However, in terms of seeding, these contests are still classified as upsets.  The Cowboys are in the Big Dance for the third-straight season.  The school pulled off the upset as a No. 12 seed versus Clemson just a season ago.  Despite a new coach and a new star player, the Cowboys will not be afraid, priding themselves on playing ferocious defense.  This game will be a stark clash of styles, as the Commodores are one of the top scoring teams in the country.  If the Cowboys can hang around and withstand the opening barrage from Vandy, though, things could get quite dangerous for the Commodores.

SOUTH REGION PLAYER TO WATCH

Kingston Flemings, G, Houston – In a season with such insane performances by freshmen like Cameron Boozer, Darius Acuff and A.J. Dybantsa, it is easy to lose sight of such a stellar campaign for Flemings.  On an otherwise experienced squad, Flemings took the reins at point guard and never looked back, including an absurd 42-point outburst that actually came in a losing cause earlier this season.  Flemings is a catalyst on both ends of the floor and will look to put his stamp on what will likely be his only college basketball campaign.

WATCH: Stream March Madness games live on Sling.

SOUTH REGION SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Florida – The path to the Sweet 16 looks unremarkable for the Gators, as the matchup with No. 16 poses no threat, No. 8 Clemson has lost their starting center to a torn ACL and Iowa has simply been too inconsistent.

No. 4 Nebraska – This seems like the year Nebraska exorcizes its demons.  The daunting Big Ten slate should have prepared it well for this test.  The Huskers dispatch of No. 13 Troy and then take care of business in the second round to notch the first spot in the Sweet 16 in school history.

No. 11 VCU – Let's get a little crazy here.  The Rams are a squad perhaps no one expected to be here, likely needing that win in their conference championship to even make the final field.  North Carolina is not the same squad without Caleb Wilson, and Illinois has faltered down the stretch, losing three of its last five tilts heading into the tournament.  Cinderella dances on to the Sweet 16 here.

No. 2 Houston – Defensive intensity and athletic prowess have been the calling cards of Kelvin Sampson's squads in recent years, and this year's version is no different.  It is difficult to see an up-and-down Texas A&M team or a largely untested Saint Mary's squad ousting the Cougars.

SOUTH REGION FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Houston – The elite teams have shuffled positions at the top all season long.  Squads like Houston, UConn and Purdue could have all been No. 1 seeds with little argument.  Defense travels, and that his once again been the driving force behind the success of the Cougars this year.  Only Northern Iowa allowed fewer points than the Cougars in 2025-26.  With a stifling defense and plenty of offense with Flemings, Sharp and company to get the job done, the Cougars pull the upset over the Gators in the Elite 8 and cut down the nets, securing a Final Four berth while exacting revenge for last year's defeat in the title game.

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