Carlos Rodon

Rodon entered last season mustering only 42.1 innings the previous two seasons. He missed most of 2019 following Tommy John surgery and much of 2020 with shoulder soreness. In one of the bigger surprises of the 2021 campaign, Rodon logged 24 starts and 132.2 innings, both his most since 2016. He posted personal best ratios, fueled by a career high 34.6% K-rate and career low 6.7% BB-rate. He benefited from a low .267 BABIP and high 82.2% LOB mark. Rodon's 95.4 mph four seam velocity was another new career best. The lefty didn't escape injury, missing some time in August with left shoulder fatigue, which recurred in late September despite the White Sox trying to keep him fresh down the stretch. The late season shoulder woes combined with the White Sox declining to extend a qualifying offer left a shroud of uncertainty with the southpaw's health, but the Giants signed him to a two-year, $44 million contract after the lockout. It's a big upgrade in home ballpark, and the Giants should win plenty of games, but Rodon's health will be the determining factor of his value this season.

The oft-injured southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2019. With the delayed start to the 2020 campaign, he was able to break summer camp in the White Sox's rotation. Cleveland blasted him in his first start then he had to leave his next outing early with a sore shoulder. His velocity was way down in the second start, but examinations revealed no structural damage. Rodon was able to return in a relief role during the last week of the season, and his velocity returned to normal. Even though Rodon appeared healthy to end the season, the White Sox decided to cut bait and non-tender the left-hander. Some team will take a chance on Rodon, perhaps as a reliever. Even if he looks good in the spring, it's probably best to resist the temptation and pass.

Rodon opened up 2019 showing a new affinity for his slider, and at times, looked great with that approach, but poor fastball command still held him back. He went down with an elbow injury after seven starts and underwent Tommy John surgery on May 19. Rodon won't be ready to rejoin the big-league rotation until at least sometime in the second half, and the White Sox may opt to play it even safer than that, potentially limiting him to rehab outings in the minors or pitching him exclusively out of the bullpen down the stretch. He has now had both elbow and shoulder issues the past couple of years, so his long-term future could be in relief. However, Chicago will likely give the No. 3 overall pick from 2014 at least one more chance to make it as a starting pitcher.

Rodon enters 2019 as one of the game’s biggest wild cards. His 2018 was delayed as he rehabbed from shoulder surgery performed the previous September, debuting in early June. He struggled a bit out of the gate, sporting a 4.55 ERA after five starts, albeit with a solid 1.18 WHIP. Rodon then got on a roll, posting a 1.84 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in nine starts, covering 63.2 frames. Unfortunately, Rodon fell apart in September, recording a 9.22 ERA and 2.12 WHIP in 27.1 stanzas. Rodon truthers will highlight the middle stretch, writing off the early struggles to rust and the late ones to running out of gas. But here’s the thing: a 20 K% and 11.1 BB% in the middle set is rather pedestrian. His xFIP in that span was 4.77. The success was driven by an unsustainable .175 BABIP. The early market is expressing optimism, assuming not only will Rodon avoid injury, but that he’ll return to previous strikeout levels while honing his spotty control. That’s a risky bet.

Planning on ramping up Rodon's workload last season, the White Sox took it slow in the spring. It turned out their concerns were warranted as Rodon left a March 28 spring game with a tight bicep, later diagnosed as left shoulder bursitis, keeping him out until June 28. Rodon's throwing shoulder started barking again down the stretch, shutting him down for the season on Sept. 2. In between, the lefty was typically inconsistent, largely a result of spotty control, walking 31 in 69.1 innings. Homers also contributed, as he served up a dozen long balls. The saving grace was 76 punchouts. Rodon's trend has been to finish with a flourish, but there's no telling if his 4.15 ERA and 1.37 WHIP would have improved with another month of starts. Rodon had arthroscopic surgery in late September, with a six-to-eight month timetable, putting Opening Day in jeopardy. Expect the White Sox to again treat their prized southpaw with kid gloves.

Rodon's 2016 wasn't too different from 2015: low-4.00 ERA through the first four months before a sprint of quality work to the finish line that featured the upside that made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 draft. One major difference between the two seasons was a big improvement in his walk rate, but it came at the expense of his command as he allowed more hits and nearly twice as many home runs. The season still stands as a worthy building block for a 24-year-old lefty trying to fulfill his frontline upside. His elite slider was even better in 2016, and his changeup took a big step forward, but not enough to offset his fastball getting less effective. Velocity is great, but a good fastball requires much more (namely, command). His walk gains came via the fastball, but it was also responsible for the home run troubles. This is exactly the kind of profile you want to bet on, though: The cost doesn't require major gains to pay off, but the upside is massive.

Rodon’s transition to the majors was rocky, and while he struck out 64 through his first 60 innings as a starter, he also walked 37 over that same stretch. However, he learned on the job and was stellar in the season’s final two months - he posted a 1.81 ERA and .198 BAA over his final eight outings. Rodon entered the big leagues with a big league-ready slider, and the pitch was as good as advertised. Ninety-seven of his 139 strikeouts came off the slider, and his upper-90s fastball was also impressive. He could take the jump if he polishes a third pitch. Rodon should slot behind Chris Sale and Jose Quintana in the White Sox’s rotation.

Rodon entered his junior year at North Carolina State as the prohibitive No. 1 overall pick. However, concerns about his workload budged him from the top spot in the 2014 June draft, and he fell to the White Sox at No. 3. It took much of the summer for the two sides to agree on a contract, which may have worked out better for his overworked arm. His plus fastball and slider blew away college batters, and the White Sox want him to add a changeup to the mix. Even without a refined third pitch, he ranks as one of the top prospects in the system and could be in the mix for a rotation spot out of camp, though vice president of baseball operations Ken Williams said in December that a multi-innings bullpen role is more likely for Rodon in 2015.