March Madness 2026 Preview: Midwest Region Picks & Predictions

The NCAA Tournament Midwest Region contains few teams with momentum, as none of the top-10 seeds won their conference tournaments. With multiple teams capable of emerging in the Final Four, should we expect chaos in the early rounds?

Check out the rest of RotoWire's NCAA Tournament Preview series here:

East Region NCAA Tournament Preview
West Region NCAA Tournament Preview
Midwest Region NCAA Tournament Preview
South Region NCAA Tournament Preview

The Midwest region is unique in that the top-seeded team that actually won its way into the tournament is No. 12 Akron. While the 12 teams within the region that are seeded ahead of the Zips each lost in their conference tournament, this is a deep region with six teams that rank within the top 20 of the KenPom ratings. 

Michigan enters as the top seed and the favorite, though Iowa State is equally capable of finding itself amongst the Final Four when it's all said and done. 

Virginia enters looking for its first win since it cut down the nets in 2019, while the team on the opposing sideline in that game -- Texas Tech -- has been riddled by the injury bug and is stumbling into the tournament. 

Finally, the SEC is heavily represented, with a talented Alabama squad leading an always-dangerous group that includes Tennessee, Kentucky and Georgia. 

Ahead are the teams, players and matchups that will shape this season's Midwest Region. 

Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest NCAA Tournament team previews for the field of 68, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.

MIDWEST REGION NCAA TOURNAMENT FAVORITES

No. 1 Michigan - The Wolverines compiled a 16-3 record against Quad 1 opponents and sport a 31-3 record overall with their only blemishes being a three-point home defeat to Wisconsin, a five-point loss to top-seeded Duke and a loss in the Big Ten Tournament Championship to Purdue.  Michigan is one of four teams to rank within the top 10 in both offensive (8) and defensive (1) efficiency (according to KenPom), while also proving to be battle-tested, having faced the third most challenging schedule this season. Led by Yaxel Lendeborg (14.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.4 bpg), Morez Johnson (13.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.2 bpg) and Aday Mara (11.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.6 bpg), the strength of this team lies in the interior, as Michigan ranks fourth nationally in both offensive and defensive two-point field-goal percentage, third in blocked rate and eighth in average rebounding margin. 

No. 2 Iowa State - Iowa State started its season 16-0, rose to as high as No. 2 in the polls and finished with a total of eight Quad 1 wins. The Cyclones feature a disruptive defense that ranks fourth in the KenPom defensive efficiency and leads all power conference schools in forced turnovers with 15.3 per game. Tamin Lipsey (13.3 ppg, 5.0 apg, 2.2 spg) is an Ames, IA native who is a dying breed as a four-year starter, and he's the catalyst as one of the best two-way point guards in the country. Milan Momcilovic (17.1 ppg, 49.6 percent 3Pt) is the team's leading scorer and the nation's top three-point shooter, while Joshua Jefferson (16.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 4.9 apg) just missed finishing as the first player in Big 12 history to average 17/7/5. 

No. 3 Virginia - First-year coach Ryan Odom has Virginia back near the top of the rankings and helped lead the team to a record of 8-4 in Quad 1 games. While its defense customarily remains strong by rating as a top-20 unit, the Cavs also feature an offense that averages 80.6 points per contest after years of playing games in the 60s under former coach Tony Bennett. Freshman Thijs De Ridder (15.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, while the Cavaliers lead the nation in blocked shots thanks to the frontcourt tandem of Ugonna Onyenso (3.0 bpg) and Johann Grunloh (2.2 bpg). 

No. 4 Alabama - What you see is what you get with Alabama, as the Tide led the nation in scoring for the third year in a row with an average of 91.7 ppg. The problem is, it's also the third year in a row they've also allowed more points than any other power conference school. Of course, a large reason for both figures is their pace of play, which ranks fourth in the country. KenPom's efficiency metrics are a little more favorable, rating the Crimson Tide third offensively and a mediocre 67th on defense. Nobody takes more threes than the Crimson Tide, who average 35.3 per game, while only Cornell made more than Alabama's 12.7 triples per contest. Led by point guard Labaron Philon (21.7 ppg, 4.7 apg), Alabama faced the nation's second-toughest schedule, had seven Quad 1 wins and had won nine of 10 prior to an early exit at the hands of Ole Miss in the SEC conference tournament. 

MARCH MADNESS CINDERELLA WATCH

No. 11 SMU - The Mustangs may have been one of the last at-large bids added to the field, stumbling into the tournament having lost five of their last six. However, that coincides with the loss of B.J. Edwards (12.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 4.9 apg. 2.3 spg), a versatile offensive weapon who's also the team's best defender. The team expects Edwards to be good to go in time for their First Four matchup with Miami (OH), joining one of the best backcourts in the country with Boopie Miller (19.2 ppg, 6.4 apg) and Jaron Pierre (17.6 ppg), both seniors who can take over any game. Assuming they survive the RedHawks, the Mustangs have an offense capable of making Tennessee uncomfortable, then in a potential second-round matchup could face a familiar foe in Virginia, who beat them by just four in their lone regular-season matchup. 

No. 12 Akron - While Miami (OH) got all of the publicity in the MAC thanks to a perfect regular season, the Zips lost just five games and enter the Big Dance having won 19 of their last 20. The MAC tournament champions average 88.4 ppg and rank eighth in effective FG percentage. Led by dynamic senior point guard Tavari Johnson (20.1 ppg, 5.0 apg), who has stuck around for four years, the Zips have the potential to be a thorn in the side of Texas Tech, who stumbles into the tournament having lost three straight and are without All-American JT Toppin.

MIDWEST REGION BIGGEST BUST

No. 5 Texas Tech - The Red Raiders put together an impressive resume with seven Quad 1 wins, including victories over Iowa State, Houston, Arizona and Duke, with the Iowa State win coming after the loss of leading scorer JT Toppin to a torn ACL. However, Texas Tech has lost its last three, and while he's been deemed as available for the tournament, star point guard Christian Anderson was forced to leave the conference tournament loss to Iowa State with a groin injury. The Red Raiders have struggled on the defensive glass and have turned the ball over 12.2 times over the last five games, two areas where Akron is fully capable of taking advantage. Texas Tech drains threes at a 39.3-percent clip, tops amongst all power conference schools, which is a big reason why I think the Red Raiders survive a first-round scare. However, if Anderson is at less than full strength, Akron will be primed to pull the upset.

Want to see how the latest injuries might affect the top pickups in college basketball? Head on over to RotoWire's college basketball injury report.

MIDWEST REGION FIRST ROUND UPSET

No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Tennessee - This season will mark the 15th in which the First Four has been played in Dayton. Of the prior 14 seasons, at least one team from the First Four has advanced to the second round or beyond in 12 of those years. Therefore, I'm going to hitch my wagon to SMU. Tennessee survived a grueling SEC, finishing 11-7 in conference, but has lost four of its last six. While the Volunteers still feature a strong defense that rates 15th in efficiency (per KenPom), it's not quite as stifling as it was in past seasons. SMU has stood toe-to-toe with Duke and Virginia and has wins over Louisville and North Carolina when it was at full strength. If B.J. Edwards is healthy and SMU can stay within striking distance, the Mustangs have multiple weapons capable of putting Tennessee on notice. 

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MIDWEST REGION PLAYER TO WATCH

Tamin Lipsey, G, Iowa State - Lipsey is a true unicorn in the modern college game. He is a four-year starter from Ames and was hand-picked by TJ Otzelberger as his first signed recruit to help revitalize a program that had finished just 2-22 in 2020-21. Lipsey is a disruptor on the defensive end, averaging a league-high 2.2 steals per game, while also providing steadiness on offense with an assist-to-turnover rate of 3.47. Lipsey has struggled from long range this year (31.1 percent) but has shot 42.9 percent from distance over the last five games. If he can maintain that stroke while setting up Milan Momcilovic, who is the nation's leading three-point sniper, Iowa State is going to be tough to beat.

MIDWEST REGION SWEET 16 PICKS

No. 1 Michigan - The Wolverines looked a bit vulnerable in the Big Ten tournament, winning close games over Ohio State and Wisconsin prior to losing to Purdue in the championship game. However, I don't see Georgia or St. Louis providing a threat in Round 2, and the Wolverines should cruise into the second weekend with relative ease. 

No. 2 Iowa State - The Cyclones should have no problem waxing Tennessee State in Round 1, then will face an interesting test in Round 2 against either Kentucky or Santa Clara. A matchup with the Wildcats would be one of the marquee offerings of the second round, though Iowa State's defense should be more than enough to help it advance.

No. 3 Virginia - The Cavaliers have been steady all season and should roll past Wright State with little problem. The round of 32 is where things could get dicey, as a matchup with Tennessee would be fascinating. However, I have the Vols bowing out to SMU, and while the Mustangs were able to hang tight with their ACC rivals during the regular season, Virginia will be clear favorites to advance to its first Sweet 16 since it cut down the nets in 2019. 

No. 4 Alabama - No surprises here. Hofstra is capable of giving the Crimson Tide a bit of a scare in the opening round. A Round 2 matchup between Labaron Philon and Texas Tech's Christian Anderson would be must see, but without JT Toppin, that's a matchup where the young Bama frontcourt of Aiden Sherrell and Amari Allen would be set up to shine. 

MIDWEST REGION FINAL FOUR PICK

No. 2 Iowa State - While Alabama could certainly rock the apple cart, I see chalk winning out in this region, with Michigan set up for a showdown with Iowa State in the Elite Eight. Iowa State is similar enough to Purdue offensively to provide an interesting challenge for the Michigan defense. The Cyclones shoot the three better (38.7 percent) than any power conference team outside of Texas Tech, and they protect the basketball. While Michigan should control the glass, Iowa State will force Michigan's bigs to leave the paint with Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson each playing from the perimeter. However, the biggest impact should come on the defensive end, as Iowa State leads power conference teams in forced turnovers, while Michigan finished 16th among 18 Big Ten teams in turnovers committed per game. I think Iowa State's toe-to-toe battle with Arizona in the Big 12 semis was exactly what it needed heading into the Big Dance, and that showdown will give the Cyclones the confidence needed to get over the hump and take down the Midwest Region.

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