This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've reached our first Saturday in March, and the college hoops slate doesn't disappoint. We have several intriguing matchups on the board, headlined by a battle for first place in the SEC. Here are my predictions for three games tipping off later in the day.
Iowa 
at Northwestern
These two teams are incredibly similar. Both play at a high level offensively and rank top-30 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, but neither is great at the other end as both sit outside the top-70 in defensive efficiency. But a closer look reveals one of them carries a noticeable advantage going into Saturday.
When the Wildcats have the ball, they should see a high volume of open looks. Iowa has the second-worst defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten since the conference season started and will have to guard against a Northwestern offensive attack that sits third in the league over the same period. The Hawkeyes also rank last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage, so the Wildcats will likely get several put-back opportunities. Aside from dealing with its self-inflicted defensive problems, Iowa also has a major challenge as Northwestern does a couple of other things extremely well with the country's sixth-best offensive turnover percentage and one of the best three-point shooting teams with an eighth-highest 39 percent rate. The Wildcats are a potent bunch any way you look at it.
When the Hawkeyes have the ball, they also know how to create open looks but they'll be going against a defense that's decent enough as Northwestern ranks 70th for defensive efficiency and ninth in the Big Ten during league play. The Wildcats excel in two areas on defense that should help them win on Saturday ranking fourth in turnover percentage and fifth in defensive rebounding during conference play.
Northwestern's on an incredible run having won seven of their last 10 outings, with two of the losses coming in OT against Purdue and Minnesota. Considering how they match up with their guests on Saturday, I'm betting their success will continue. I'm laying the points with the Wildcats.
College Basketball Best Bet: Northwestern -3.5
Houston 
at Oklahoma 
Houston has sat atop KenPom's overall efficiency standings for nearly the entire season, and it's all anchored by a world-class defense. The Cougars have listed the highest defensive efficiency rating for the same period, and it's hardly cracked. Houston has now played 15 conference games and has held 12 opponents under 70 points, with six failing to reach 60.
Oklahoma enters Saturday ranked 39th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, a bit lower than the No. 21 spot a month ago due to scoring droughts. The Sooners only mustered 45 points in their last game at Iowa State with a meager 57 against Kansas in their last home matchup. Luckily for Oklahoma, it's incredibly sharp at the other end of the court at 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency. It's also been just as effective against Big 12 opponents, ranking third in the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed, second in defensive rebounding percentage, and second in three-point field goal percentage allowed.
Another important note to consider in this matchup is playing styles. Each team strongly prefers going at a slower, controlled pace, so we should see a smaller number of possessions. Houston ranks 347th in adjusted tempo and Oklahoma enters at 233rd.
Considering the defensive-oriented nature of both sides and their preferred playing styles, I like the odds of seeing a low-scoring total. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 129.5
Tennessee 
at Alabama 
Tennessee hasn't lost many times this season. But when it does, it usually happens outside of Knoxville with five of six defeats coming away from home. They now have to travel for what is their most difficult road trip of the season, at least according to KenPom's efficiency rankings. The last time the Volunteers had to travel to face an opponent of a similar caliber top-10 in overall efficiency, they got crushed at Chapel Hill on Nov. 29 when the Tar Heels dropped 100 points. It's hard to ask a team to score that much, but it could be Tennessee's opponent on Saturday.
Alabama started the year ranked 10th on KenPom's chart, and hasn't disappointed ranking seventh in the nation for overall efficiency mostly thanks to its top offensive efficiency rating among all 362 D1 teams. They're among the best at attacking the rim as they make 58 percent of shots inside the arc, but its primary form of attack comes from the perimeter where three-pointers account for 38 percent of total scoring - the highest percentage in the SEC. This is key because Tennessee's defense has performed slightly worse against long-range shooting by allowing conference opponents to hit 33 percent from deep.
The Tide's only problem this season has been defensive issues, though it's important to note these problems mainly occurred on the road. When they travel, conference opponents have averaged 89 points. But the number falls dramatically at home with only 74 against.
Alabama is 13-1 at home this season, including its last nine straight. Given the location of Saturday's matchup and the Tide's recent successful track record, I like their chances of defending at home. I'm rolling with Alabama.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama -2.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Northwestern -3.5
- Houston at Oklahoma - Under 129.5
- Alabama -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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