This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a slimmer college hoops slate on Friday, but we still have some notable games with NCAA tournament seeding at stake. Here are my predictions for a pair of games that could impact what we hear on Selection Sunday.
VCU 
at Dayton
The Rams enter Friday on a two-game losing streak, but they've had a great season otherwise. VCU defeated Penn State in the non-conference season, and then at one point during the conference season, it won 11 of 13 games, including a victory over Dayton, 49-47. The Rams will travel to Dayton on Friday, but VCU has performed resiliently in hostile environments throughout the season, logging five conference road wins up to this point. VCU doesn't rank highly in offensive efficiency, but it's still a sharp-shooting team nonetheless. The Rams have made 39 percent of shots from behind the arc since the conference season started, the second-highest percentage in the Atlantic 10, and they've made 80 percent from the charity stripe, the highest in the league.
When stacking these teams against each other, VCU seems built to counter Dayton's strengths. The Flyers rank eighth among all D1 teams in effective field goal percentage and fourth in three-point field goal percentage, but at the same time, the Rams rank 17th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 18th in three-point field goal percentage allowed. VCU also holds opponents to 47 percent on two-point shots, the 39th-lowest percentage allowed, further bolstering its defense.
Considering how VCU matches up against Dayton and its successful track record in road games, I like the Rams' odds of keeping the game close. I'm taking the points in this matchup.
Additionally, I like our chances of seeing a low-scoring game. Each team strongly prefers slowing the game down, so we should see fewer possessions Friday. Dayton is ranked 338th in tempo among all D1 teams, with VCU not much further behind at 286th. I'm also taking the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: VCU +8 and Under 138.5
Boise State 
at San Diego State 
The Broncos are coming off a loss to Nevada in their last game, but they're a scorching hot team in the big picture. Boise State had won 18 of its last 23 games before its most recent loss, including wins over Saint Mary's, Colorado State, Nevada, San Diego State, and New Mexico. Resume aside, at the start of this stretch, the Broncos were ranked 85th on KenPom's overall efficiency standings, and they've worked their way up to 40th entering Friday. They also rank in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, making them a well-rounded squad.
The Aztecs, meanwhile, had an impressive start to the season at 14-2, although they haven't played as consistently well in recent weeks, failing to win more than two consecutive games since their great start. They still have an elite defense, seemingly in their DNA, but the same cannot be said about their offensive play. San Diego State ranks 59th in the nation in offensive efficiency and sixth in the Mountain West during conference play, a clear weakness compared to the other side of the court. The Aztecs' biggest problem is their inability to make three-pointers. They've made 32 percent on the year, ranking 273rd among all Division I teams, but they've shot worse during the conference season, posting a league-worst mark under 31 percent.
Comparing these teams side-by-side, Boise State arguably has the overall edge. The Broncos have recorded the highest offensive efficiency ranking in the Mountain West during league play, giving the Aztecs' vaunted defense a formidable challenge. The Broncos also sit first in the league in offensive rebounding percentage and free-throw percentage, making them tough to handle in all facets of the game. When the Aztecs have the ball, they must go against a defense that claims the third-best efficiency in the conference. It's also critical to note that Boise State can parry San Diego State's best offensive asset: collecting offensive boards. The Aztecs rank second in the league in offensive rebounding percentage, normally a huge advantage over any opponent, except the Broncos boast the highest defensive rebounding percentage, neutralizing their usual benefit.
It's tough to beat San Diego State at home, but Boise State could prove the right team for the job. A win is a lot to ask for, but I'm betting that the Broncos will keep the game close, considering their balanced brand of basketball and how they match up against the home team. They already did it once this season. For these reasons, I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boise State +7.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- VCU +8
- VCU at Dayton - Under 138.5
- Boise State +7.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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