Top MLB Betting Picks for April 30
MLB 2026 betting record: 7-13, -7.03 units
It's Thursday, meaning it's another heavy afternoon slate.
With a pair of doubleheaders, this isn't the easiest MLB betting day since we'll get late notice on lineups for multiple contests. But I still have several picks to recommend, including two predictions from the nightcap between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Best Bets and Predictions
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 BetMGM)
Under 8 runs (-115 BetMGM)
Gausman is a good bet to work deep, allowing him to pick up strikeouts along the way. Toronto's Opening Day starter has gone six-plus innings in four of his six starts, and at least five frames every time out.
Backing Gausman to clear 17.5 outs would be a preferred play at a better price, but you'll be paying -140 to -160 for him to surpass that line. So, I've turned my attention to the strikeouts.
The right-hander has slowed down after amassing double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back games to begin his 2026 season, but the whiffs have been there. Gausman ranks 10th among qualified starters in swinging strike rate, per FanGraphs, thanks to his signature splitter that has carved up the opposition. Minnesota ranks seventh in MLB in K percentage vs. right-handed pitching, so there's definite upside for Gausman tonight.
Toronto's schedule works in Gausman's favor, too. The Blue Jays have played six straight days, only got 4.1 innings from Eric Lauer yesterday, and the team isn't off again until next Thursday. The Jays will be looking for length from Gausman and should have their high-leverage arms available after a comfortable win on Wednesday, which is why I'm also betting on the under to cash.
Toronto's bullpen is rounding into form, ranking fifth in FIP and No. 1 in K percentage. Neither offense is spectacular and both teams rank below average in the power department. Toronto just got George Springer back, but is still missing multiple regulars, thinning out this lineup pretty fast.
Minnesota counters with Bailey Ober, who's doing his best to prove that last season was an aberration when he served up an abnormally high number of long balls and posted a career-high 5.10 ERA. Ober hasn't been dominating, but he's kept the home runs in check, upped his groundball rate and enters tonight with a 3.94 ERA through six starts. He has allowed more than three runs just once and is coming off his best two starts of the season.
Target Field has been kind to right-handed hitters, but the forecast is not expected to help them tonight with cross-stadium wind blowing from left to right field. And while that could aid left-handed hitters against the two righty starters, Target Field has been the second-worst stadium for lefty batters this season, per Baseball Savant.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Best Bets and Predictions
Brent Rooker Over 1.5 total bases (+120 theScore Bet)
Athletics Over 4.5 runs (-125 DraftKings)
Rooker is off to a miserable start, entering today with a .429 OPS, two extra-base hits and plenty of whiffs. The slugger has been limited to 15 games as a result of an oblique injury and has gone hitless in three contests since his return.
He's certainly not in good form but neither is Royals starter Noah Cameron, and Rooker has a strong track record.
Cameron has been hit around in three consecutive outings. The southpaw isn't missing bats, has an xERA of 7.02 (sixth percentile) and will be pitching in an unfriendly environment. Sutter Health Park has been the second-best offensive venue over the last two years.
Back to Rooker. Over the last three years, he's posted a .268/.343/.509 line with 99 homers. He's a power hitter who does his best work against left-handed pitching and hit .281 while slugging .502 at his hitter-friendly home park in 2025. When Rooker gets right, this plus-money price won't be available for his home games. This pick is about value for me.
I don't expect Rooker to be the only Athletics player who makes noise today. The Royals have had one of MLB's worst bullpens through the first month of the season, ranking 28th in ERA with bottom-five marks in walk and home run rates.
That's a dangerous combination in Sacramento, where the Athletics have a 109 wRC+ compared to a mark of 87 on the road. While they haven't been hitting the ball out at home, they've gotten on base at a .362 clip (No. 3 in MLB), topping this total in 50% of their games.
MLB Picks Recap
- Kevin Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts (-110 BetMGM)
- Under 8 runs (-115 BetMGM)
- Brent Rooker over 1.5 total bases (+120 theScore Bet)
- Athletics over 4.5 runs (-118 BetMGM)
