Top MLB Betting Picks for April 29: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props
2026 Regular-Season Betting Record: 1-3-1
2026 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 0-5
A pair of AL rivals face off to cap off a busy day of baseball Wednesday, and it's quite the matchup of veteran starting pitchers with Michael Wacha and Luis Severino facing off.
Without further ado, let's examine a same-game parlay and a player prop for tonight's game:
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MLB Picks for Royals at Athletics
- SGP: Athletics +0.5 and Over 3.5 Runs- F5 (+120 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Luis Severino 5+ strikeouts (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Kansas City Royals at Athletics Best Bets
Tonight's matchup features two pitchers with markedly different surface metrics, but their overall performances arguably haven't been as contrasting as those numbers might suggest.
Wacha certainly has the more aesthetically pleasing profile of the two veteran hurlers, as he checks into Wednesday's start with a 2-1 record, 2.51 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 0.8 HR/9 across his first five starts. He'd given up two or fewer earned runs over his first four trips to the mound before getting roughed up last time out by the Orioles, who tagged Wacha for six earned runs on seven hits and two walks over 5.1 innings.
Partly because of that outing, Wacha now carries a 4.59 xERA and .466 xSLG allowed. Meanwhile, other secondary metrics that suggest more regression could be coming. That includes his 9.5 percent barrel rate surrendered – the third highest of his career and most elevated since 2022 – as well as his .338 xwOBA (.257 base figure) and career-high 45.2 percent hard-hit rate conceded.
For what it's worth, Wacha also has a spotty history against current Athletics bats – they've gotten to him for a collective .271 average and .715 OPS across 53 career plate appearances.
On the other side, Severino's warts are more evident. The veteran righty has a 1-2 record that's accompanied by a 5.17 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over his first six starts. He's yielded a 1.1 HR/9 as well, and while his average fastball velocity (96.6 mph) is still in fine form, his 6.0 BB/9 is helping undermine a lot of the swings and misses he does create.
A look under the statistical hood suggests Severino's troubling surface numbers are legitimate, as he's allowing a career-high 11.0% barrel rate, a .360 xwOBA (.359 conventional figure) and a career-high 45.1 percent hard-hit rate. While the Royals haven't exactly been an offensive powerhouse, it's worth noting they do have a 10.1 percent walk rate against right-handed pitching over the first month-plus of the season, which dovetails well with Severino's location struggles.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are one of baseball's ascendant teams over the first several weeks and come into Wednesday with an impressive .783 OPS, .350 wOBA and 7.2 wRAA against right-handed pitching at home. The A's also rank in the top half of baseball with 2.6 runs per first five innings in home games.
Severino's case is somewhat helped by the fact KC has particularly struggled on the road, where the Royals average an MLB-low 0.8 runs per first five innings. The Royals' metrics against righties when traveling, which include a 26.1 percent strikeout rate and MLB-low .264 wOBA, are also among baseball's worst. A same-game parlay that banks on the Athletics being at least tied after five innings while at least four runs come across is in play.
Then, given Severino's ability to still miss some bats and the Royals' issues making contact against righties on the road, a prop on him ringing up at least 5 Ks for what would be the fifth time in seven starts is also worth considering.
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Athletics +0.5 and Over 3.5 Runs- F5 (+120 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Luis Severino 5+ strikeouts (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
