Oak's Corner: Are Sonny Days Here Again?

Happy All Star Week everyone, looks like we made it! With one weekend of games left before the break, I will take some time in the four days off from games to do another deep evaluation of my teams to see where I stand and where I need to improve. We are also at the point of the season where I will take a hard look at players who aren't performing up to par who I may have held on to because of where I drafted them or because their names have held value in the past. In July, it no longer matters where you took someone, as so much has changed and we have to look at our players with a clean slate. This weekend, I'll drop a couple guys whom I admit to holding on to for too long because of who I thought they were three months ago.

The Week That Was

Anyone who knows me or has talked baseball with me knows how much I love Sonny Gray, mostly because of his time with the A's and some great performances he had in huge games. His rough 2018 with the Yankees is well documented, and even about a month ago, I had no issue with people dropping him in 12-team leagues as he was just a guy who was okay but not going deep into games at all. Gray has been really good in his last two starts against division rivals Cubs and Brewers, highlighted by his eight-inning, 12-strikeout shutout against the Brewers.

The big change so far in the 2019 version of Gray has been the strikeout rate, never a big part of Gray's game, which has jumped to 10.3 K/9, easily a career high. Gray has changed his pitch mix, eliminating the cutter he threw 20 percent of the time with the Yankees in 2018 while throwing more fastballs like he did in prior seasons. Through 90.1 innings, Gray owns a solid 3.59 ERA, and his FIP is even more impressive at 3.35. The 38.9 percent hard hit rate is a bit high for my liking, and a summer in Great American Ballpark scares me, but it does look like we have the pre-New York Gray back in our lives.

Gray's Statcast numbers look pretty good, too, as he is allowing an average exit velocity of 87 mph, and he has allowed only 13 barrels on the year. It's tough to trade for Gray right now off the gem against the Brewers, but if he happens to be available in a shallow league, clearly, he should be owned. I'd try and make an offer for him off the next mediocre start he throws out there. The Reds are in last place, but in the wild NL Central, that means they are only 3.5 games out of first, and I love the thought of Gray making some big starts in September.

Ramon Laureano made a big splash last year with the A's, mostly due to his highlights plays on defense, especially the absurd double play in Anaheim, which is absolutely one of the greatest throws I have ever seen. On the offensive side, Laureano was a sneaky fantasy asset down the stretch as he homered five times while swiping seven bags in 48 games. That stat line came on the heels of 14 homers and 11 steals in 64 Triple-A games prior to his callup. The one concern in Laureano's 2018 profile was a 28.4 percent strikeout rate after he got called up to the majors, which at 27.6 percent, is still something he needs to fix.

After a rough April in which Laureano hit .234, he has compiled an extremely productive first half with 14 homers and 10 stolen bases to go with a .263 average. Laureano has boosted his hard hit rate a bit to 40.7 percent and has also increased his fly ball rate to 39.8 percent, and when paired with a 24.9 percent line drive rate, it's pretty clear Laureano makes a lot of good contact, and I think the homers are repeatable in the second half. What I really like right now is that after hitting in the bottom third of the order for pretty much the entire first two months, he has moved up in the order and has been hitting fifth or sixth for the last two weeks, a very nice spot in an offense that is very good and surging as the summer heats up. This may be your last chance to grab Laureano at a decent price before he starts to rack up more counting stats and his strong fantasy season stops flying under the radar.

FAAB Feelings

Dylan Cease. Cease was promoted this week by the White Sox and should be the most popular starting pitcher in most FAAB leagues this week, well, at least the ones in which he was not available last week, as while the callup was assumed by the weekend, he was not officially active until this week. Cease made his debut on Wednesday against the Tigers, posting an unimpressive line with three earned runs over five innings with four hits and four walks, but did strike out six. Matt Modica of The Athletic (@CTMBaseball on Twitter) is an excellent source for all things pitching (and a really good dude), and he noted on Twitter how well Cease settled in after a rough first inning and how impressive his debut really was. After just looking at the box score, Matt's comment caused me to go back and watch the start, and I have to say I agree that Cease was really impressive after facing eight batters in the first, especially for a guy making his debut. This mediocre line on paper will hopefully help keep the bidding down a little bit.

Cease had a monster 2018 in the minors, posted a 2.89 ERA in 71.2 Single-A innings and a 1.72 ERA in 52.1 Double-A innings, including a 13.4 K/9 strikeout rate in the Double-A stint. He was promoted to Triple-A to start this season, and he wasn't anywhere near as impressive, sporting a 4.48 ERA in 68.1 innings as his strikeout rate dove to 9.6 K/9. Cease throws really hard and averaged 97 mph on his fastball in his first start. I saw enough in his debut to bid on him this weekend despite the rough Triple-A numbers, as he clearly displayed his upside last year. It's getting harder and harder to find starters in FAAB this year as the ball heats up even more with the weather, and I think Cease is someone to grab and hope that upside shows itself with the White Sox.

A Closer Look

After a few quiet weeks in the usual wild world of closers, we have had a lot of action over the past two weeks with injuries and many blowups in the ninth inning. If you find yourself down in the saves, it's time to get vigilant with trying to find guys that can help you make up that deficit in the second half.

Nathan Eovaldi. The Red Sox bullpen has been an absolute mess for fantasy owners this year as they have rotated among different guys all year. Ryan Brasier leads the team with seven saves, but Matt Barnes has four, Brandon Workman has three, and three other relievers have chipped in with one apiece. In all of my leagues, these names have been added and dropped depending on the prior week, but it seems like we might finally have someone to pick up in all leagues. Reports surfaced this week from Tom Caron of NESN that multiple sources indicated that upon his activation, Eovaldi would be not only serve as the closer, but would be used as a traditional closer. This is big news, especially for a team that figures to do everything in the second half to try and sneak into one of the two AL wild card spots, assuming they can't catch the Yankees.

Of course, the rub with Eovaldi is that he's currently on the Injured List after surgery to remove loose bodies from his throwing elbow, and there's still not a set timetable on his return, but some reports have stated that the Sox expect him back soon after the break. Eovaldi has been frustrating for fantasy owners for many years, having always shown flashes of upside that ended up less than fulfilling by the end of the season, especially in terms of low strikeout rates. In 2018, he was effective for the Red Sox with a 3.81 ERA in 111 innings, and while his strikeout rate was still fairly weak at 8.2 K/9, it was a career-high (as was his 10.7 percent swinging strike rate) as he started to make use of high velocity to get some punchouts.

It remains to be seen how Eovaldi will respond to the new role (and that assumes the reports are correct), but with his high velocity that he should be able to really let loose in shorter stints and a possible traditional closer role on a good team, the bids for Eovaldi should be aggressive this week. He has become more available in recent weeks because his injury has lingered and is owned in 58 percent of the NFBC 15-teamers and only 28 percent of the 12-teamers.

Now that we are in July, it's the time to make some speculation plays based on current closers getting traded by noncompeting teams at the deadline. It's far from an exact science, and we can't know for sure what teams will pull the trigger on deals, but if you wait until the deadline, any chance to get guys on the cheap goes away.

Reyes Moronta. Will Smith is awesome, and I absolutely love the dude, but the Giants are 19 games behind the Dodgers and have the second worst run differential in the National League. It just makes a ton of sense for them to move Smith at the deadline. While the Giants do have veterans Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and Sam Dyson in the pen, Moronta is the one name that would be intriguing if he were to get the closer roll after a Smith trade. Moronta's one big issue is the walks, as he currently sports a 4.5 BB/9 walk rate but has improved it recently with only four walks in 11.1 innings since June 1st.

Moronta has nicely bumped up the strikeout rate to 11.95 K/9 this season, although the swinging strike rate has dipped a touch to 12.7 percent. He has also increased his velocity to a career-high 97.2 mph. Dyson and Watson have actually been very good, but when the Giants do deal Smith, I am hoping they will turn to Moronta as a trial for a couple of months to see how they feel about going into 2020 with him as their closer. With the likelihood of a Smith trade higher than any other closer out there, the time to grab Moronta is in the next week or two, as he's still available in 63 percent of NFBC 15-team leagues and a huge 98 percent in the 12-team version.

Aaron Bummer. Alex Colome has been very effective as the White Sox closer with a 2.08 ERA and 19 saves through the first half of the season, but he's likely to be moved to a contender with the White Sox 12 games back in the AL Central and likely not in the mix for the wild card either. The 25-year old Bummer has had a nice breakout season in the back end of the Sox pen with a 1.72 ERA through 11.1 innings. He had a rough 4.26 ERA in 2018 in his 31.2 MLB innings, but a .402 BABIP hid some good stuff as his FIP was only 2.40.

The most intriguing aspect of Bummer's 2019 excellence has been the increase in fastball velocity from 93.1 mph in 2018 to 95.4 mph this year, a pretty large year over year jump for a guy who didn't switch roles in any way. While he doesn't strike out a ton of guys at 9.2 K/9, he has done an excellent job avoiding hard contract at 23.1 percent this season. Bummer is also an extreme ground ball specialist, and his 64.5 percent ground ball rate is eighth best among relievers and he is one of only 11 relievers giving up fewer than 20 percent fly balls. At only six percent owned in NFBC 12-teamers and 44 percent in the 15-team Main Event, I like a shot on Bummer now as I think he's clearly the next guy up should a Colome trade end up happening, especially after quotes from Rich Renteria last week noting that he thinks Bummer can be a closer.

On a quick side note, I'm holding on to Liam Hendriks right now. Even with quotes by Bob Melvin that Blake Treinen would resume his role as closer soon after activation, he was roughed up in his one Triple-A outing and then pitched poorly in his first outing with the A's off the IL. His command was off and his velocity dipped, and while I really hope he can find his 2018 form as an A's fan; I want to see it a few times before I drop Hendriks.

Series of the Weekend

Yankees at Rays. This monster series got kicked off on Thursday night with a win by the road Yankees punctuated by a long Gary Sanchez homer in extra innings. Despite a slew of injuries to key guys most of the season, the Yankees have stepped up in a big way with the best winning percentage in the American League, and this four-game series could go a long way toward determining if the Rays hang in this race. After Thursday's victory, the Yankees now own a 7.5 game lead over the second place Rays, and Tampa could certainly use at least a couple of wins this weekend to stay within striking distance of the Yankees heading into the break.

While Gary Sanchez has the most homers for the Yankees, the true mainstay and savior in the lineup is a guy who fell in drafts due to uncertainty about his playing time. Through 327 at-bats, offseason acquisition DJ LeMahieu is hitting .339 and has amassed 65 runs and 63 RBI, leading the Yankees in all three categories and also finding himself in the top 10 in baseball in all three as well. LeMahieu has even tossed in a bit of power this year with 12 homers, nearly matching his career high 15 from 2018. He does have a career high hard rate at 37.3 percent, but at only 25.9 percent fly balls, the homers likely won't continue at the same pace in the second half. And while the .342 average will be tough to maintain, LeMahieu does hit a lot of line drives at 24.8 percent, and while his BABIP is high at .373, he has a history of high BABIPs. Although he's no longer in Coors Field for half his games, Yankee Stadium is a pretty nice consolation prize. Most importantly, LeMahieu has fully solidified himself at the top of the Yankees lineup on an everyday basis, which is among the most prime lineup spots in the entire league.

There are six qualified pitchers in baseball with a Whip of 1.00, and five of them are pretty easily guessed in Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Walker Buehler and Hyun-Jin Ryu, but the sixth Yonny Chirinos, would be a huge surprise to many. Chirinos worked as a primary pitcher after an opener at the start of the year but has been moved to a typical starter role since late May, taking the hill to start the game every five days. While his surface stats do look sweet with the WHIP and the 3.15 ERA, a closer look had me more concerned than I thought I'd be as someone who owns him in a few leagues. His strikeout rate is down to 7.3 K/9 as his swinging strike rate has dropped to 10.5 percent. While he has nicely reduced his hard hit rate to 32.1 percent, it's hard to believe that the .234 BABIP isn't going to bite back at some point, and his 4.30 FIP is also a number that gives me some pause. Chirinos isn't a big name who can draw a lot in a deal, but I'd sure to try and sell the strong ERA and elite WHIP through the first half if I could.

I hope everyone has a fantastic and safe holiday weekend!