Twelve games are featured in FanDuel's main slate Tuesday, with first pitch at a standard 7:05 p.m. EDT. Hunter Brown ($10,600), Drew Rasmussen ($10,400) and Davis Martin ($10,000) are the three arms priced in five figures, and they'll all be a pass for me -- Brown for potential workload restrictions, and Rasmussen and Martin because they face the Dodgers and Yankees. Feel free to be different and deploy them in GPPs if you are feeling frisky.
A's-Pirates is our only double-digit run total on the slate, while we have two games at a low 7.5. The Cubs (-190) are the slate's biggest favorite, followed by Atlanta (-166). Rain is a mild concern in Atlanta, and we'll need to confirm wind direction in Chicago before determining the advantage. Current reports suggest it blowing towards right, so left-handed pull hitters would be the play.
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Pitching
Logan Gilbert, SEA vs. BAL ($9,200): Gilbert is on a nice little run, posting at least 34.0 FDP in four straight, and his most recent outing was six innings of three-hit ball against these Orioles. Baltimore has been swinging better of late, and their 111 wRC+ off righties is the fourth-highest mark in the league. But given the ballpark factor, Baltimore's 3.3 run expectancy and that Gilbert can get us a strikeout per inning, the profile appears safe for a 3x return or slightly better. Gerrit Cole ($9,100) has been far less stable, but offers upside in this tier.
Edward Cabrera, CHC vs. COL ($8,100): At this price, I'm willing to roll the dice despite Cabrera's volatility. He too gets a rematch of his last outing, where Cabrera bounced back for 31.0 FDP at Coors Field. We noted the wind in the intro, and it's a concern. Cabrera sports a 43.7 percent ground ball rate, but a massive 20.6 percent of the flys he allows leave the yard. He allowed two runs to the Rockies last time, both on solo homers, so he can produce even if he gives up a few long balls.
Framber Valdez, DET at HOU ($7,400): That the price is this low speaks to how bad Valdez' form is. Perhaps the matchup with his former team leads to a vintage performance? Let's hope, as nothing in the profile makes him a favorable play. His Ks are at a career low (7.1 per nine) and his ERA is on pace to be his highest since 2019 when he wasn't a full time starter. He has been marginally better on the road, and while his 49.6 percent ground ball rate is also a career-worst, it's still a high mark. At worst, Valdez can eat innings and we don't need massive returns at this price.
Top Targets
Nick Kurtz ($4,400) seems the obvious play if money is no object.
Juan Soto ($3,900) is a solid cheaper pivot. Brady Singer is allowing a .442 wOBA and 1.024 OPS to lefties at home, Soto is 4-for-10 with a 1.000 OPS off him, and he's hitting .409 with two homers over his last seven.
Staying in Cincinnati, Kodai Senga has been equally vulnerable to lefties (.467 wOBA, 1.079 OPS) when healthy this year, but unlike the Mets' lineup, the Reds don't have many options from that side. I don't love the price, but JJ Bleday ($3,700) fits the profile and has three homers in his last six.
Bargain Bats
Globe Life Field has proven to be a pitcher's park, so we don't want to fully chase power, but it's part of Royce Lewis' ($2,800) profile with three long balls in his last seven. He's hitting .400 in that stretch as well, giving enough of a floor for the price.
The Cubs are a challenging lineup to attack Tuesday. If we believe in the winds and their 6.2 run expectancy, we want lefties, but Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has been mashed by righties (.602 wOBA on the road). We also don't want to chase last night's returns, even if Pete Crow-Armstrong ($3,700) is on fire. That's a long-winded way of saying give me Michael Busch ($2,900) for the wind and/or Alex Bregman ($2,900) for the splits. Both are hitting over .300 over the last week. This is certainly a stackable opportunity.
Cheaper Mets' lefties to consider as options to round out your build include a slumping Carson Benge ($3,000), A.J. Ewing ($2,800) or Jared Young ($2,600).
Stack to Consider
Atlanta vs. Adrian Houser (Giants): Matt Olson ($3,700), Drake Baldwin ($3,500), Michael Harris ($3,300)
Sometimes things can be too simple or obvious, and that feels like the case here. Adrian Houser continues to be pummeled by lefties (.438 wOBA, 1.022 OPS) and Atlanta's lineup will be chalked full of them. I do wish there was a better discount on Baldwin in his return from the IL, but nonetheless, we can easily stack the top of this lineup in a clearly favorable matchup. Ozzie Albies ($3,200) is in play, as is Dominic Smith ($2,700) if you need some relief.
Rangers vs. Zebby Matthews (Twins): Wyatt Langford ($3,000), Brandon Nimmo ($2,900), Joc Pederson ($2,600)
This column hints at some more obvious stacking options, so I'll attempt to target something far less obvious that has to come with low roster percentages. The salaries here are low, and if it pops, it's a winner with some higher-priced guys aiding that cause. Matthews has been horrible on the road, allowing 17 runs in 16.1 innings and a whopping seven homers. It's a small sample, but still worth considering. He's allowing a .418 wOBA and .987 OPS to lefties, and .422/1.000 OPS to righties. Langford has homered twice in 10 games since returning, Nimmo has four multi-hit games in his last seven, and Pederson has taken Matthews deep once in three at-bats.
