This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
My premium MLB best bets are riding the crest of a 21-9 record that has earned a highly profitable 44 percent ROI in July. The following pick is an eight-unit best bet (scale from 5 to 10 units) and the research will reinforce why it is my best bet for Sunday.
The Dodgers Are Who We Thought They Are
Despite the large number of injuries to the Dodgers pitching staff, they are taking control of the NL West Division race. They are 17 games over .500 with a 57-40 record and have stretched their division lead to four games over the Diamondbacks and Giants. The Dodgers have won 69 percent of their games in July, ranking third-best behind the surging Red Sox (73 percent) and Brewers (71 percent). Even more impressive is that the Dodgers have won the road series against the first-place Orioles and have taken the first two on the road from the first-place Rangers.
The Dodgers starting rotation includes names no one expected to see lumped together this season. Bobby Miller started Saturday's 16-3 blowout win over the Rangers and completed six innings, allowing three earned runs for a quality start. In 10 starts, Miller is 6-1 with a 4.28 ERA allowing 49 hits and 16 walks while striking out 53 batters in 54.2 innings of work.
Sunday's starter is scheduled to be Emmet Sheehan, who is 3-0 in five starts with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, including 11 walks and 18 strikeouts spanning 25.2 innings of work. He has a 95 mph fastball, 87 mph slider and an 82 mph changeup that he uses against left-handed batters. He throws the fastball 65 percent of the time, and you can expect the Rangers lineup to be looking at attacking that first-pitch offering.
Sheehan may get into trouble early, but the Dodgers bullpen has been expectational, posting a 1.03 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 26.1 innings of work over their last seven games. Their best relievers are all available today having needed none of them in yesterday's blowout win.
The Rangers will send left-hander Martin Perez to the hill to make his 19th start of the season. He has posted a mediocre 4.84 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with 36 walks and 62 strikeouts in 96.2 innings. However, he has struggled in his three most recent starts, posting an 8.03 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP including eight walks and just six strikeouts over 12.1 innings of work. He will be making his ninth day start of the season and has posted a terrible 7.54 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP with 15 walks and 19 strikeouts over 37 innings of work in his previous eight.
The Rangers and Dodgers rank first and second respectively in scoring offense at 5.78 RPG and 5.71 RPG on the season. Both starters may not even make it into the fifth inning and for that reason, I like the Dodgers with the monumentally better bullpen in this matchup.
MLB Best Bets for Dodgers at Rangers
- Dodgers moneyline (FanDuel -118)
A Highly Profitable Situational Betting System
The following situational betting system has earned a 43-30 record (59 percent), averaging a +118 wager for a 24 percent ROI in bets made over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on NL road teams averaging at least 4.5 RPG on the season who are facing a foe from the AL scoring at least 5.4 RPG. Drilling down a bit further, if the game is the last game of the series, the road teams have gone 16-10 (62 percent) while averaging a +114 wager and earning highly profitable 28 percent ROI in games bet over the past five seasons.
Player Prop Bets for Dodgers at Rangers
- Martin Perez under 16.5 outs (-115 at BetMGM)
- Martin Perez over 2.5 walks (+127 at Caesars)
- Max Muncy to hit a home run (+310 at PointsBet)
- Chris Taylor over 0.5 RBI (+195 at BetMGM)
