Saturday's main slate at FanDuel has eight games and goes off at 7:10 p.m. EDT. In what may be a first in quite some time, White Sox starter Davis Martin ($10,300) is the slate's highest priced arm. Use him at your own peril. Jacob deGrom ($10,100) will surely be the more obvious/higher-rostered top arm.
The Mariners (-166) are the slate's biggest favorite, which isn't a massive number. The Rangers (-148) and Braves (-142) follow, and that's likely where I'll be targeting my pitching choices below. Giants - A's is our highest total at 9.5, while four more games come in at 8.5. Clearly not a high-scoring slate so perhaps there will be some bargain arms. Rain will not be a concern here, and wind likely won't play a massive factor either. Slightly blowing in in Minneapolis, and slightly blowing out in Anaheim and New York; very minimal impact.
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Pitching
Bryce Elder, ATL vs. BOS ($9,700): I went to the well against Boston yesterday with Spencer Strider, and his inefficiency yielded middling points. Elder can be in the same mold as he walks 3.3 per nine, but he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his nine starts, going 6+ frames six times. Boston's slumping offense is always one to target, ranking last against righties with an 80 wRC+ and .115 ISO while striking out 23.0 percent of the time.
Logan Gilbert, SEA vs. SD ($8,500): For me, this looks like the most obvious option on the mound Saturday. Gilbert has an extra day of rest, having not thrown since last Sunday, the Padres come with a slate-low 3.1 run expectancy, and his 3.78 ERA comes with a better 3.38 xFIP. San Diego has the same 23.0 percent K rate off righties and a better but still below average 94 wRC+. I'll caution that he's only reached a 4x return twice to date, but 3x+ seems probable.
Logan Henderson, MIL at MIN ($7,800): As the intro eludes to, there could be, and there are, a plethora of secondary pitching options that seem viable. I considered stacking the Twins last night with the caveat they stink, and well, that stack stunk. Wild swings to opposite thoughts can be dangerous, but nothing suggests a breakout from Minnesota here, especially if Byron Buxton sits again. Henderson has a nice 11.1 K/9, and his 4.15 ERA comes with a 2.83 xFIP. Minnesota has a 23.8 percent K rate off righties and a 96 wRC+. Inbound winds only help an arm against a team with a low 4.1 run expectancy.
Top Targets
The A's are stackable given the secondary pieces are priced favorably. But Nick Kurtz ($4,000) seems like a set it and forget it option to build around. Giants' starter Trevor McDonald has faced only 22 lefties to date, but he's allowing a .478 wOBA and 1.109 OPS. And he's been far worse on the road (5.06 ERA vs. 1.29 at home).
How you choose to handle the top Yankee options is far less obvious. Huascar Brazoban will open followed by lefty David Peterson. Brazoban isn't great, but it gives Aaron Judge ($4,500) and Ben Rice ($4,200) one less at bat against Peterson, and they both are crushing lefties. Perhaps not enough of a reason to fade, but maybe enough to not fully buy in.
Bargain Bats
The Ranges are far from a trustworthy offense, but come with a decent 4.8 run expectancy, and the preference should be to target opposite-handed bats against Kai-Wei Teng, which Texas has a plethora of on the cheap. Corey Seager ($2,900) is ice cold but maybe yesterday's off day provides a reset. Evan Carter ($2,700), Brandon Nimmo ($2,800) and Joc Pederson ($2,500) are all viable given your lineup needs and/or financial position.
Luis Severino has solid BvP numbers against the Giants, whose offense stinks, so it's not a stacking spot despite the ballpark factor. Willy Adames ($2,700) could be the exception. He's 6-for-15 (.400) off Severino and is hitting .333 across his last seven.
Lawrence Butler ($2,600), Tyler Soderstrom ($3,000) and Jeff McNeil ($2,500) are all in play if you want additional left-handed Athletic bats.
Stack to Consider
Mariners vs. Walker Buehler (Padres): Randy Arozarena ($3,300), Julio Rodriguez ($3,000), Luke Raley ($3,000)
Buehler has made three road starts and allowed four runs in each of them, twice lasting just 2.2 innings. Stacking the Mariners isn't easy, and perhaps I chose poorly here as it could occupy all of your outfield spots, not allowing for much flexibility elsewhere. But Seattle has a 4.7 run expectancy, amongst the slate's highest, so conceivably it's the right call but needing more consideration for diverse options. Arozarena is the stable option, hitting .347 with five steals and nine runs in his last 13. Raley has been hot with five homers in his last 10, while Rodriguez has cooled over the last week. Perhaps pivot from him to Brendan Donovan ($2,900) for some positional differentiation.
