A large 12-game slate is on the docket Friday evening at FanDuel, with the first game starting at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Only two arms are priced in five-figures, and they are Parker Messick ($11,000) and Ryan Weathers ($10,600), not exactly names that jump out as players you'd traditionally pay up for, so it's going to be a fun slate to sort through.
Coors Field is a part of this, giving us an elevated 11.5 run total. Three additional games come in at 9.0 runs. The Dodgers (-200), as usual, are the slate's largest favorite, followed by the Brewers (-152) in Denver. Overall, weather doesn't appear to be a factor. It's dry, temperatures appear to be average, and there might be some slight outbound winds in Denver and St. Louis.
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Pitching
Christian Scott, NYM at SD ($8,200): I went to the Scott well in his last start, and it resulted in a season-high 42.0 FanDuel points, so I see no reason not to go right back to him at this fair price. He's been inefficient, walking 4.8 per nine, but that comes with 11.3 K/9, a 2.97 ERA and 3.10 FIP. San Diego remains mired in offensive struggles, currently bringing a .294 wOBA, 89 wRC+ and 23.5 percent K rate against righties. New York is on the wrong side of this low 7.5 run total, but not enough to fade.
Roki Sasaki, LAD vs. LAA ($7,700): The Angels have a league-high 25.0 percent K rate off righties, immediately bringing potential to Sasaki at this price despite him not often working deep in games. He currently is fanning 8.8 per nine while walking 3.4 and has only topped 5.1 innings twice all year. While a quality start seems against the odds, the Dodgers being heavy favorites suggests a win can still be in the cards. Sasaki's best outing of the year came against this lineup on May 17, so there's a slate-busting ceiling if there's a repeat.
Kumar Rocker, TEX vs. CLE ($7,300): This slate is so different than most, being void of a big-named, high-priced arm. So while there can be value in using the lesser known options, it's also not necessary to force it. Globe Life Field continues to be a pitcher-friendly stadium, and Rocker has a 2.95 ERA there against 4.66 on the road. He hasn't allowed a run in three of his last four starts, and Cleveland's 93 wRC+ and .144 ISO suggest he's in a spot to match Messick in a pitchers duel at a far cheaper price.
Top Targets
We loosely know the drill with the Brewers; they get production from everywhere, and it makes them hard to choose from nightly. Ryan Feltner has curious splits; he's been better at home and is getting smashed by same-handed bats. Jackson Chourio ($4,200) has eight hits in his last four, including two homers last night, and has a .402 wOBA off righties.
It's largely a BvP play, as Mitch Keller has been better on the road and doesn't have targetable splits. But Atlanta has an elevated 5.1 run expectancy and has hit Keller well. Ronald Acuna ($3,900) is hitting .333 with four homers and four steals in his last six, and is 8-for-19 (.421) with three homers off the Pirates' starter. Matt Olson ($3,900) is also hitting .333 over his last six and is 6-for-12 with a long ball off Keller, making for a fair mini-stack.
Bargain Bats
Troy Johnston ($3,300) is sort of priced in no man's land; neither a top play or a real bargain. But he's a cheap entry into an expected high-scoring game, has a .404 wOBA and 147 wRC+ off righties, and has two hits in four straight games.
Ketel Marte ($3,400) profiles similarly, but if we're not spending a premium for pitching, he can slot safely into lineups. He's got four homers and 15 RBI in his last 12, has a 132 wRC+ and .261 ISO off lefties, and Washington starter Foster Griffin has allowed seven long balls in his last four starts.
Vladimir Guerrero ($3,100) is in a power drought, but that gives us a fair price as a result. He's hitting .375 over his last 11 and had four hits the last time Brandon Young faced the Jays.
Andruw Monasterio ($2,500) has four-position eligibility and can be a punt play with him likely starting against a lefty.
Stacks to Consider
Cardinals vs. Brady Singer (Reds): Jordan Walker ($3,700), JJ Wetherholt ($3,500), Alec Burleson ($3,200)
Singer is allowing an obscene 2.8 HR/9, and it's not just a home ballpark factor, as he has a 7.67 road ERA. We've got favorable hitter conditions in St. Louis, and there's some hope we don't see huge roster percentages here. Burleson is my favorite stand-alone play if you don't want to stack; he's 3-for-7 with a homer against Singer and has a .391 wOBA and 153 wRC+ off righties overall. Singer is allowing a .450 wOBA and 1.045 OPS to lefties, making Wetherholt an easy second piece. Walker isn't a must-play given the elevated price but makes for a fair third piece atop the lineup.
Astros vs. Jack Perkins (Athletics): Yordan Alvarez ($4,100), Jeremy Pena ($3,200), Isaac Paredes ($2,800)
This game appears to have stacking potential on both sides, with the A's having a slightly higher run expectancy despite facing a seemingly better starting pitcher. Alvarez has been elite all year and has six homers in his last 12. Pena is hitting .340 with three homers in his last 13, and Paredes comes cheap, hits in the heart of the order and has homered in two straight. Tyler Soderstrom ($3,100) stands out on the other side.
