That Regional round was insanity. I knew some upsets were on the horizon, but who was pulling off the upsets was a complete shock in most cases. The Super Regional matchups are now set.
This provides the most normal weekend of the tournament as it is a legit three-game series just like you would see in a regular weekend. Teams know they won't play more than three games, which helps them get back to a more usual routine.
Here's what to look for in the College Baseball Super Regionals.
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More Upsets incoming in Super Regionals
Only 7 of the 16 Regional hosts advanced, which is a pretty solid indicator that we had some massive upsets in the regionals. There are teams playing this weekend that I wouldn't have touched with a 10-foot pole at any point this season in terms of coming anywhere near Omaha. But this crazy tournament of ours provided a path for these unlikely little engines that could (or could not) after they took care of their business. If you asked me even two months ago, no way would I have said Little Rock, Troy, St. John's, or Cal Poly have even a remote prayer.
Nevertheless, all of these teams are two wins away from the College World Series. So let's see the best way to attack these matchups.
Super Regionals Odds (Based on Draft Kings):
Cal Poly (+300) @ West Virginia (-450)
Cal Poly was a big shocker because they drew the UCLA Regional last weekend. Not only was it a shock to see the Bruins get clipped twice by St. Mary's that early, but Cal Poly cruised to this weekend without having to even play the top ranked team.
While the WVU region was an absolute thriller, the Mountaineers had to really grind it out after making so many mistakes. One of the top rotations in the country (Maxx Yehl, Ian Korn, Chansen Cole, and Dawson Montesa) got banged around most of last weekend and because they all had to throw a lot of pitches, it has forced West Virginia to throw normal Sunday starter, Cole, in the first game.
It wouldn't be a shock to see Cal Poly steal this region, but if WVU cleans up their performances from last week, then they should secure the series. I think Cal Poly is a great bet in game 1 with their star, Griffin Naess (4.00 ERA, 96 K: 32 BB in 87.2 IP) going. Not only is Naess one of the most slept on pitchers in the sport, but he's on a heater as of late, allowing only seven earned runs in his last four starts (26.2 innings) along with 32 punchies.
WVU is the more talented group with not just a normally great staff, but an elite hitter in Gavin Kelly, the potential 1.1 pick next year.
I'm not laying -450, but I think WVU pulls thru after the Mustangs steal Friday's opener.
Pick: WVU -450
USC (+210) @ North Carolina (-280)
If you took USC to win the College Station Region, you got an early birthday present. Most non-hosts don't rally out of the 0-1 hole to win four straight games, with an elite offense juggernaut in your way no less. The Trojans bats came alive though, securing their spot this weekend in Chapel Hill.
While the Tarheels impressively swept through their own region, I'm not totally convinced on them. Sure, they're a good team as usual, but I felt like they were a lot better last year. Now in a series that mimics a regular season style format, there's some juice with this USC squad.
Like Cal Poly, USC should have a great chance to take the first game with their superstar ace, Mason Edwards, on the bump. Edwards got banged up by Lamar last week, but this is a kid with 164 punchies on the year (92.2 IP) and a sparkling 1.85 ERA. And offensively, they put up 59 runs in their five games last weekend (11.8 runs per game). While the opposing pitching will be more stout this weekend, the lineup is heating up at the right time.
The Heels will pitch off again with Ryan Lynch getting the opener. Lynch is a solid arm for sure, but not unhittable (4.07 ERA, 75 K: 33 BB in 84 IP). With ace Jason DeCaro going in Game Two, this gives the Trojans a good edge in the first contest.
UNC choked in their own Supers last year, and I doubt they do it again, but I can't ignore the price for USC. I'm definitely betting them for Friday around +120. Should they win that, then the series odds flip big time.
Pick: USC (+210)
Little Rock (+260) @ Troy (-350)
I mean from an actual entertainment aspect and chaos merchant, this matchup is peak college baseball. If we're looking at my large Florida Gators position getting ripped apart, then it makes me want to nuke this whole thing from the field.
One of Troy or Little Rock will be in Omaha this year. Yeah, I know. Troy ended up stealing the regional from under Florida's nose, but I don't think it automatically sends them off to Omaha. Little Rock is always another tough mid-major program. They don't do anything spectacular at the plate, but they seem to come up with timely hits.
Pitching wise, there's something of an edge in game one with presumed starter, Brandon Westmoreland going. The man with too many last names (3.12 ERA, 98 IP) gives these Trojans a shot to take down the other Trojans.
Ultimately, Troy is a better overall team and should win, but the price isn't where it should be.
I'd rather bet Little Rock in game one around +190 even if Troy wins the series.
Pick: Troy (-350)
Ole Miss (+155) @ Auburn (-195)
For what it's worth, I think the winner of this series will represent the left side of the bracket in the finals. Auburn had a scare last weekend, needing to beat Milwaukee in that Monday game. They played extremely sloppy and were lucky to escape out of their own region.
Ole Miss played somewhat sloppily as well. But in a much tougher region, the Rebs showed what they could be if they play to the higher side of their variance. I spoke about Ole Miss a ton before the tournament started as the biggest dark horse in the field. Like Auburn, they have three good starters in addition to some high leverage bull pen arms.
Ole Miss has a more inconsistent offense, but they hit for power and are like an avalanche when they're rolling. The Rebs have been here before back in 2022 when they were slept on and made a run. Taking out Auburn will be no easy feat, but with the experience they have, it could be enough.
No point in taking Ole Miss to have to win two games at +155 when you can grab them in game one at +140. I'm riding with the Rebs.
Pick: Ole Miss (+155)
Mississippi State (+120) @ Georgia (-150)
A big time SEC rivalry in the Super Regionals is what makes this sport so great. Georgia clapped Miss State in the regular season via the sweeparoo. This is one of the matchups I'm looking forward to most this weekend with this being a Saturday start. There's a big caveat here. UGA slugger, Tre Phelps, and coach Wes Johnson were tossed from the final regional game last week, meaning they are unavailable in game one.
Tomas Valincius should draw the start against Joey Volchko in the opener. Valincius is a bonafide ace and likely top 10 pick next year. His big bugaboo is the 12 homers he's allowed on the season, so against the nation's best power hitting unit, it could be the difference. While I think it will be a great series, I have UGA emerging here in what is their best chance in years to climb the mountain.
Pick: UGA (-150)
Oklahoma (+135) @ Kansas (-170)
Oklahoma shocked the world in a monster defeat of heavily favored Georgia Tech. You can never count out a Skip Johnson led program in June. Though I do think that regional weekend forced them to expend so much energy, fortitude, and pitching that it may have them on the ropes before the series even starts.
Struggling LHP freshman Cord Rager is throwing game one against likely a soaring Dom Voegle. There's a good chance Kansas easily takes care of business in the first game, leaving them two chances to advance to Omaha. OU's offense is primarily led by speed (117 steals), which has caused issues for teams over the years. Kansas has yet to climb the heights like this as their last Omaha appearance was in 1993.
The Jayhawks were a little sloppy last weekend, but unlike previous years, they found a way to persevere. Ultimately I think it will be a little too much for the Sooners.
Pick: Kansas (-170)
Oregon (+240) @ Texas (-330)
Texas is the team I've been talking about since January. It's one of the best chances this program has had in recent years to finally achieve the goal.
Led by superstar ace, Dylan Volantis, Texas always has a massive advantage in Game One. Their offense is raking as well behind more than just the two star transfers (Aidan Robbins and Carson Tinney, both 20+ homers). Guys like Anthony Pack, Temo Beccera, and Adrian Rodriguez have come on strong lately, giving the Horns a balanced attack.
Though they have the advantage, Oregon can't be overlooked with a strong ace in Will Sanford and an offense that has over 100 dingers as a team. I think Texas gets this done and sets up for an electric date against UGA in Omaha next week.
It's a highly unbettable price, so I would say parlaying Texas game one around -238 is the only shot to get some action in the series as a Horns backer.
Pick: Texas (-330)
St. John's (+400) @ Alabama (-600)
My alma mater. My Johnnies! The storm is still brewing. What a regional win it was in Tallahassee last weekend. Once again, they're a massive dog. Alabama is a good ball club that still flies under the radar in my opinion, despite being ranked No. 7 in the nation for the tourney.
Even though Bama probably wins, the price is outrageous, especially in Game One where Bama is -400 to the Johnnies +300. It should be Tyler Fay for the Tide in the opener against Liam O'Leary. Fay has given up 20 bombs this season, an outrageous figure. There's a good chance the Johnnies can steal game one to neutralize the series.
If you think Bama wins, I like them at +1600 to win the CWS given the potential path they would have. Nevertheless, I'm going to be a homer and go with St. Johns in both game one and the series.
Pick: St John's (+400)
