Who are you betting on to go yard on Friday? Our algorithm combines batted ball data, pitcher data, and environmental factors to find you the best home run props today.
Every day, I use our Home Run Prop Finder Tool (RotoBombs) to identify MLB home run picks on the slate. The tool ranks by composite power score; exit velocity, barrel rate, pull-air rate, and swing speed are the inputs, then layers in pitcher matchup data and park & weather factors to surface the highest-probability home run bets on the board.
Home run props are not about picking the guy most likely to homer. They're about finding the gap between the implied probability baked into the odds and the actual probability when you run the numbers.
📲 Do you like betting on sports? Claim thousands in bonus bets with these sportsbook promos.
Best Matchups for MLB Home Run Props Today
Use RotoBombs for yourself below. You can navigate around our RotoBombs algorithm in the HR Finder tab and the Matchups algorithm in the Best Matchups tab.
Continue reading to see the reasoning behind why the tool identified these five hitters as the best MLB HR props on today's slate.
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) to Hit a HR
Tonight's top HR Finder score (8.5, A+). PCA gets a favorable platoon matchup and a 15 mph wind blowing directly into his pull side — with one major caveat.
Batter 15 Day Data:
- 95.7 mph avg exit velocity
- 24.3% barrel rate
- 56.8% pull-air rate
- 15.9% pull barrel rate
- Favorable platoon: RHH vs LHP — pull side aligned perfectly with wind direction
Pitcher (Robbie Ray) Season Long Data:
- 14.5% HR/FB rate
- 91.0 EV allowed
- 1.6 HR/9
- 48% fly ball rate allowed
Park & Weather: Wrigley Field · PF 102 · 69°F · 15 mph Out to LCF · ⚠️ 78% rain risk
⚠️ Confirm the game is on before betting. If Wrigley plays, this is the best bet on the slate. If it's rained out, pass entirely.
RotoBombs Suggested Odds: +265
Best Odds: +350 (Fanatics)
📲 Find more bets with our Daily MLB Picks
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) to Hit a HR
After Wednesday's brutal Skenes matchup, Alvarez gets Jack Perkins — one of the more exploitable starters he'll see all season. The dome removes all weather noise.
Batter 15 Day Data:
- 98.3 mph avg exit velocity
- 25.0% barrel rate
- 37.5% personal HR/FB rate
- 26.5% blast contact rate
- Favorable platoon: LHH vs RHP
Pitcher (Jack Perkins) Season Long Data:
- 12.0% HR/FB rate
- 90.5 EV allowed
- 1.3 HR/9
- 42% four-seamer at 96.8 mph — hittable velocity for Alvarez's bat speed
Park & Weather: Daikin Park · PF 100 · Dome · 85°F · 10% rain (irrelevant)
RotoBombs Suggested Odds: +315
Best Odds: +318 (DraftKings)
3. Jackson Chourio (MIL) to Hit a HR
Ryan Feltner at Coors Field is one of the most dangerous pitcher-park combinations on tonight's board. Feltner is surrendering home runs at an alarming rate, and Coors covers most of what Chourio lacks directionally.
Batter 15 Day Data:
- 92.9 mph avg exit velocity
- 19.4% barrel rate
- 20.0% personal HR/FB rate
- 12.9% pull-air rate — the caveat; as a LHH his pull-air rate is low, but Coors' 120 PF compensates
- Favorable platoon: LHH vs RHP
Pitcher (Ryan Feltner) Season Long Data:
- 15.5% HR/FB rate — highest on tonight's slate
- 92.5 EV allowed
- 2.1 HR/9
- 6.2 ERA
Park & Weather: Coors Field · PF 120 · 85°F · 8.1 mph Out to LCF · 12% rain
RotoBombs Suggested Odds: +265
Best Odds: +320 (FanDuel)
4. Nick Kurtz (ATH) to Hit a HR
The best-priced pick on tonight's board. Kurtz is quietly posting elite power metrics over the last two weeks, and Peter Lambert in a dome is a favorable environment to cash them in.
Batter 15 Day Data:
- 92.1 mph avg exit velocity
- 25.0% barrel rate
- 42.9% pull-air rate
- 12.3% pull barrel rate
- 33.3% personal HR/FB rate
- 78.2 mph bat speed — strongest among tonight's five picks
- Favorable platoon: LHH vs RHP
Pitcher (Peter Lambert) Season Long Data:
- 13.0% HR/FB rate
- 91.0 EV allowed
- 1.5 HR/9
- 5.0 ERA
Park & Weather: Daikin Park · PF 100 · Dome · 85°F · 10% rain (irrelevant)
RotoBombs Suggested Odds: +335
Best Odds: +360 (Fanatics)
5. Jake Bauers (MIL) to Hit a HR
The other side of the Coors/Feltner game. Bauers' raw EV is the softest on this list, but his 42.9% personal HR/FB rate and Coors' 120 park factor make him worth playing at +300.
Batter 15 Day Data:
- 87.4 mph avg exit velocity
- 12.0% barrel rate
- 44.0% pull-air rate
- 42.9% personal HR/FB rate — nearly half his fly balls are leaving the park
- 77.7 mph bat speed
- Favorable platoon: LHH vs RHP
Pitcher (Ryan Feltner) Season Long Data:
- 15.5% HR/FB rate
- 92.5 EV allowed
- 2.1 HR/9
- 6.2 ERA
Park & Weather: Coors Field · PF 120 · 85°F · 8.1 mph Out to LCF · 12% rain
The tools are the weakest on this list, but Feltner plus Coors is a combination that inflates every outcome. At +300 — cheaper than Chourio despite the same game — the market is over-discounting the environmental edge.
RotoBombs Suggested Odds: +300
Best Odds: +350 (FanDuel)
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
We all know how the story goes: if it's not the player you bet on to go yard, it's the guy hitting before or after him in the lineup. These are my favorite adjacent bets in tonight's targeted games:
- CHC vs SFG (Wrigley): Ian Happ — Best Price: +300, Hard Rock Bet (LHH pull-side Wrigley wind, same Ray matchup — if game is played)
- MIL @ COL (Coors): Christian Yelich — Best Price: +490, FanDuel (LHH Coors power, Feltner vulnerability)
📲 Combine this research with RotoWire Smart Money below and start backing your bets with data today.
