Blake Snell

31-Year-Old PitcherSP

Free Agent

2024 Stats

W-L

5-3

ERA

3.12

WHIP

1.05

145

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

Unlock Our Projections

2025 Fantasy Outlook

Snell didn't secure a contract for 2024 until signing with the Giants in mid-March, and the turbulent offseason carried over into the regular season. He joined San Francisco's rotation in early April but made just six starts and had a 9.51 ERA during the first three months of the campaign as he missed time due to groin and hamstring injuries. The left-hander was dominant once he returned from the injured list in July and closed the season with just 11 earned runs allowed in his final 14 starts, and he had a 114:30 K:BB over 80.1 innings during that stretch. Snell returned to free agency after declining his player option with the Giants, and he seems unlikely to remain on the market so deep into spring training this time around. He's topped 130 frames in a season just twice in his eight full MLB campaigns, so fantasy managers shouldn't be counting on more than 20-to-25 starts. However, Snell won the Cy Young Award in those other two seasons, so he could be a league-winning pitcher if he's able to stay healthy. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man No

Height 6'4"

Weight 180

DOB 12/4/1992

Drafted 2011

Free agent after declining option

PFree Agent

November 1, 2024

Snell declined his $30 million player option for 2025 on Friday, Maria I. Guardado of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Snell probably would have stuck around had he been forced to make his decision following a slow start to his 2024 campaign. However, after collecting a microscopic 1.23 ERA and 114:30 K:BB in 80.1 innings over his final 14 starts, hitting the free-agent market again was a no-brainer. Presumably, Snell will stand a better chance this time around at landing the lucrative, multi-year deal he looked for last winter.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Blake Snell generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Blake Snell generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

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9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-2%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-44%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-14%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-12%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.194	290	93	40	48	12	0	5
Since 2022vs Right	.190	1407	458	154	236	47	3	27
2024vs Left	.105	67	27	10	6	1	0	2
2024vs Right	.187	351	118	34	59	12	1	4
2023vs Left	.204	125	38	21	21	5	0	2
2023vs Right	.176	617	196	78	94	17	0	13
2022vs Left	.241	98	28	9	21	6	0	1
2022vs Right	.212	439	144	42	83	18	2	10
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-11%

ERA on Road

2024

-16%

ERA at Home

2023

-21%

ERA on Road

2022

-14%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	2.97	1.16	224.0	14	15	0	12.3	3.8	0.7
Since 2022Away	2.63	1.16	188.0	13	7	0	11.6	4.8	0.7
2024Home	2.85	1.10	53.2	1	2	0	12.9	3.5	0.3
2024Away	3.40	0.99	50.1	4	1	0	12.2	4.1	0.7
2023Home	2.52	1.16	89.1	9	5	0	12.3	4.7	0.8
2023Away	1.99	1.21	90.2	5	4	0	11.1	5.2	0.7
2022Home	3.56	1.19	81.0	4	8	0	12.0	2.9	0.9
2022Away	3.06	1.23	47.0	4	2	0	12.1	4.8	0.6
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Stat Review

How does Blake Snell compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.30

K/9

12.5

BB/9

3.8

HR/9

0.5

Fastball

95.9 mph

ERA

3.12

WHIP

1.05

BABIP

.285

GB/FB

1.17

Left On Base

70.6%

Exit Velocity

79.6 mph

Barrels/BBE

3.3%

Spin Rate

2333 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

18.0%

Swinging Strike

16.2%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

Snell walked an incredible tightrope during a contract year in 2023, as he posted an MLB-best 2.25 ERA despite a league-worst 13.3 percent walk rate, securing the second Cy Young Award of his career. He excelled in spite of the free passes thanks to a 0.75 HR/9, 5.8 H/9 and 84.9 percent strand rate, which was also aided by the Padres' strong defense (42 DRS). Given all the free baserunners, it's not exactly a surprise his 3.77 xERA and 3.62 xFIP don't mesh with the actual results. The 31-year-old finished with 180 innings, falling one frame short of setting a career high and marking just the second time in his eight MLB seasons that he's topped 130 innings. Snell was a boon for fantasy managers in 2023 with his run prevention and punchout numbers (31.5 percent strikeout rate), but regression almost seems guaranteed between his durability and walk concerns. Even so, the left-hander's 3.56 ERA in 51 starts during the 2021-22 seasons presents a strong floor.

A groin injury cost Snell the first quarter of the season, but when he was able to take the hill, Snell picked up where he left off in 2021, throwing fewer changeups while relying more on his four-seam fastball and curveball. Snell made 24 starts, registering the second highest strikeout rate and K-BB% of his career. Snell's 8.4% HR/FB mark was a bit lucky and needed since he yielded a career-high 43% fly balls. However, a .307 BABIP was high, especially considering so many fly balls staying in the yard. Durability and control remain issues as Snell has only eclipsed 180 inning once in his career. He's ticketed for a spot in the middle of the Padres rotation. When healthy, Snell piles up punch outs while providing a solid ERA. Walks buoy a high WHIP, so plan accordingly.

Snell went into the break with a 4.99 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Coming out of the break, he all but bagged his changeup for more four-seam fastballs. He continued to struggle but then went on a tear, finishing the season with a 1.83 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over his last eight starts, fanning 65 over his final 44.1 innings. Snell's control and home run prevention also markedly improved over the second half. It took a groin injury in a September 12 start against the Dodgers to thwart Snell's second half surge. The two outs he collected in that game were the final pair of his season, though he could have come back had the Padres made the playoffs. While altering his pitch mix is a tangible cause for Snell's strong stretch run, he has a history of spotty control and it's a risk to expect he maintains a lower walk rate. That said, he checks enough other boxes (strikeouts, favorable home park, good run support) to find out.

Snell's 2020 will always be remembered for how it ended. He was quite good during his time on the mound, posting a 3.16 ERA and 100:32 K:BB over 79.2 innings (postseason included). The long ball was a problem; Snell served up 15 HR in total. His HR/FB during the regular season was all the way up at 29.4% after he was consistently in the 10-15% range the three seasons prior. Eight of the 10 homers he allowed during the regular season were against the fastball, leading to an ugly .326 BA and .663 SLG against the pitch, but we're talking about a sample of 50 innings with those stats. Snell's curveball remains a great put-away pitch and he's still just a few years removed from winning the Cy Young pitching in a brutal AL East. The trade from Tampa Bay to San Diego looks like a net positive as Snell will be pitching for another good team and may be allowed to go deeper into games, in theory padding wins and Ks.

Regression was expected for the 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner as Snell's 1.89 ERA was lower than his 3.16 xFIP and 3.30 SIERA. Sure enough, his 4.29 ERA last year was significantly higher than the 3.31 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA. In terms of skills, Snell was essentially the same pitcher he was the year he took home the hardware. Perhaps if Snell didn't miss about two months after surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow, his ERA would have corrected, but it didn't have the chance. The encouraging news is that when Snell returned in September, his velocity was just a tick below normal, so he should be 100% heading into 2020. The only blemish is a high walk rate, resulting in an elevated WHIP. However, a strikeout rate north of 30% helps mitigate the impact. Snell may fall a couple dozen innings short of the elite, but he's still a fantasy ace. Invest with confidence.

James Clear, in his book Atomic Habits, references The Plateau of Latent Potential. We expect all progress to be linear, and that it will come quickly. In reality, the results get delayed and we enter into the valley of disappointment. That aptly describes Snell from mid-2016 through the end of July 2017. For all the talent, the results were not there. Wise owners noticed changes Snell made over the final six weeks of the season and bought back in on Snell last season and were rewarded with a Cy Young-winning effort. Snell made outstanding gains across the board, both statistically and in his approach to the game, specifically his ability to command his pitches and throw non-fastballs for strikes early to force batters to chase pseudo-strikes later in the count. The ERA will regress, and the wins will come down, but Snell is now a staff ace.

Snell has mostly struggled so far at the highest level, failing to meet the hype as a former top prospect, but he made strides late in 2017 and may be on the verge of a breakout. The young left-hander shaved a full walk from his BB/9 from the previous season (to 4.1) and got sharper as the season wore on, posting a 2.9 BB/9 in the second half. Meanwhile, Snell added to his strikeout percentage in each of the season's final three months, finishing with a 26.5-percent mark in September, while also trimming his HR/9 from 1.21 to 0.93 from the first half to the second half. It's not uncommon for pitchers to struggle with fastball command like Snell did with the jump to the big leagues; Snell seems to have regained his trust in the pitch, but continuing to locate well will be critical to his success moving forward. With plenty of owners disappointed by his struggles last season, Snell's second-half improvement may not be baked into his price on draft day.

Snell's eagerly anticipated major league debut was by and large a successful one. The young southpaw posted five quality starts overall but was also lifted before the fourth inning on five occasions, a perfect example of the inconsistencies a rookie pitcher can often display, regardless of their talent level. The one major blemish that Snell carried over from the minors was an issue with control, as he posted a bloated 5.2 BB/9 and 1.62 WHIP at the big league level. He was as stingy as ever with the long ball, however, generating a minuscule 0.5 HR/9 that essentially mirrored or represented an improvement on his figure in that category at his various minor league stops. With a full offseason to prepare for the grind of a major league campaign, Snell could take a formidable leap forward in 2017 and has plenty of proven strikeout upside, having tallied a double-digit K/9 from High-A to Triple-A. Control will presumably still be an issue for the time being, but the talented southpaw still has plenty to offer in several other fantasy categories.

There aren’t enough superlatives to describe Snell’s 2015 season. Across three levels, the lefty went 15-4 with a 1.41 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and struck out 163 batters in 134 innings and seemed to look better with each level. At Triple-A Durham, he went 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and struck out 57 batter while allowing 29 hits in 44.1 innings of work. That type of resume would normally be a lock for a job in a rotation the next season, but he pitches for Tampa Bay. Like Hellickson and Price before him, he’ll return to Durham for (insert made up BS reason here) until arbitrary Super 2 date passes. The Rays have a set rotation of Archer, Smyly, Odorizzi, Moore, and Ramirez as the roster stands now even after dealing Karns, so they do at least have a legit reason to send him back to the minors. Unless there is a trade or an injury, don’t look for him sometime in June, at the earliest.

It is said that lefties take a bit longer to develop, especially with their command. That may be the case for Snell. He pitched at two levels last season and struck out 119 batters in 115.2 innings of work while permitting just 95 hits and two home runs. He also walked 56 batters, including 37 in just 75 innings of work in High-A ball. He throws in the low 90s and the team really likes his changeup, which is a required pitch to move up in the organization. He will likely report to Double-A Montgomery in 2015 and should be watched to see how his progression continues.

Snell put together a successful first year in full-season baseball with Low-A Bowling Green. In 23 starts, he went 4-9 with a 4.27 ERA and had 106 strikeouts in 99 innings. A tall left-hander, he features a big fastball that can hover in the mid-90s. A 2011 draft selection out of high school, the Rays have brought Snell along slowly to build up his innings and preserve his arm. He had a very high walk rate of 6.6 BB/9 in 2013, which can be expected of most young pitchers. He features an interesting set of pitches and is expected to develop those and continue to work as a starter. He will likely start 2014 with High-A Charlotte, as he makes a bid to surpass 100 innings for the first time in his professional career.

More Fantasy News

Fires another gem

PSan Francisco Giants

September 22, 2024

Snell (5-3) allowed two hits and a walk over six shutout frames Sunday, striking out nine and earning a win over the Royals.