Friday night lights got a whole lot brighter! The Super Regionals is the last obstacle before the Omaha 8 make their way. There's some great matchups this weekend, and on Friday there's one I'm especially eyeing.
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Ole Miss Rebels (+140) at Auburn Tigers (-180) | Total: 9.5 (at DraftKings)
I did a preview on this series in my last piece. The bottom line is I believe the winner of this series will represent the left side of the bracket in the CWS Finals. These two SEC dynamos did not face off in the regular season, so I'm excited to see how the matchup shakes out.
No surprise, Ole Miss is rolling with Hunter Elliott. As a freshman, Elliott played a huge role in the Rebs championship run in 2022. Now, he's a season veteran redshirt junior looking to leave Oxford with one more ring on his finger. It hasn't been his best year, pitching to a 5.21 ERA and 14 homers allowed, but he's still compiled 100 punchies across 76 frames.
Elliott's been manageable the last few starts, but against an Auburn offense littered with low-mistake approaches and consistency, he has to be sharp. One of the main points about this Tigers offense I've mentioned this year his a ton of depth with six guys batting over .300. As a team, they're hitting .297 with a solid 89 boppers and 82 swipes. They're not eye-popping in any one stat, but because they're consistent in every category, it's a tough test for any opposing arm.
Elliott needs to pay special attention to star Chris Rembert (.345 avg, 12 SB), Ethin Bingaman (.335 avg, 15 HR), and Chase Fralick (.321 avg, 20 HR), all of whom can be first rounders over the next few years. Obviously, the long ball has been a problem for Elliott and the walks are a tad high (38), but if he can pitch to his ceiling, he should give his squad a chance to win.
Auburn is rolling with Andreas Alvarez. The 10-game winner Alvarez has been great for most of the year as he currently sits with a 3.52 ERA and 103 K: 30 BB ratio in 79.1 IP. A couple of bad starts against Georgia and NC State in the last few weeks ballooned his ERA. The long ball has become an issue for him this year, too, with 10 allowed on the season.
As I've mentioned plenty in the last couple weeks, Ole Miss features arguably the highest variance team in the tournament. As a team, it is only batting .266, but tit has 102 taters. The big enforcers have carried the lineup most of the year in Judd Utermark (.314 avg, 21 HR) and Tristan Bissetta (.285 avg, 21 HR). Guys like Will Furniss (.319 avg) and Hayden Federico (.295 avg, .414 OB%) have come on lately and are providing some extra depth to an offense that can turn a game in a hurry.
The problem with this offense, like we saw last weekend, is that it can really go cold via the swing and miss. Three different bats have struck out 70+ times with another at 67. The Rebs haven't played consistently well, but that means when they do they're incredibly dangerous.
I've taken some CWS tickets on Ole Miss because I believe if it can clean up the mistakes, it is capable of winning it all. Auburn is no joke, but the line should not be this out of whack. I'll gladly take the +140 with a pitcher who's been here before.
