Saturday's main slate at FanDuel is an evening affair, featuring seven games that all start between 7:05 and 7:15 p.m. EDT.
Only two arms are priced in five-figures, and they likely should be given some consideration givent the slate's run totals. No game comes in under 8.0 with three sitting at 9.0 or 9.5. Somewhat surprisingly, the Royals (-154) are the slate's biggest favorite. That seems curious to me...the Angels hit lefties well and Cole Ragans ($8,500) has walked 12 across his last two starts. Weather needs to be monitored in Atlanta, where rain is possible.
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Pitching
Jacob Misiorowski, MIL vs. PIT ($10,500): This column format traditionally has three pitching options; I struggled to find three I trust, so by default, I'm highlighting the slate's top option. The Pirates splits off righties aren't targetable; a .328 wOBA, 103 wRC+ and 22.4 strikeout rate, but Misiorowski is a different animal. His floor has been 25.0 FDP, but he's reached 37.0 in four of his five outings. That's still not enough to justify the price, but for this slate, it can fit. There should be ample offense elsewhere, knocking pitchers down and value bats up, allowing for this spend.
Jeffrey Springs, ATH at TEX ($9,100): This profiles as an elite matchup for Springs. He's allowing a .281 wOBA to lefties which drops to .181 on the road with a weak .400 OPS. Texas likely lines up with to lefties atop their order, and overall their lineup has been woeful against southpaws, posting a 31.9 percent K rate, .267 wOBA, 65 wRC+ and .101 ISO. Springs posted 41.0 FDP in a home start against the Rangers previously.
Walbert Urena, LAA at KC ($6,500): We're not chasing prior performance, but Urena struck out eight in six innings in his first start of the season, so he at least has the profile as someone who can outperform his price. The Royals haven't been awful against righties with a .310 wOBA and 22.7 K rate, but the 90 wRC+ is below average. We only need 26 FDP for a 4x return, and that's well within reach with just a handful of clean innings.
Top Targets
It's never my intent to highlight the highest-priced options here, but Saturday that's in play, though may be an either/or situation. Yordan Alvarez ($4,600) has an obscene .588 wOBA, 280 wRC+ and .515 ISO against lefties.
Mike Trout ($4,100) is the obvious Angel to use with his .440 wOBA, 179 wRC+ and .381 ISO. But for the reduced price, I find myself gravitating towards Zach Neto ($3,500), who sits at .379/138/.154. Both have walk rates north of 20 percent, and given Ragans recent control issues, that immediately gives them a non-zero floor. Neto has taken Ragans deep previously.
Bargain Bats
I went to a Yankees stack last night that didn't disappoint, and it's very clearly in play again Saturday. Jazz Chisholm ($2,700) looks like a great one-off play. He's warming up with seven hits in his last four and homers in consecutive games. He's conveniently 1-for-1 against Mike Burrows, with that ball leaving the yard.
Ronald Acuna ($3,100) isn't firing on all cylinders, but we've seen him go on streaks before and he homered Friday. He's 12-for-49 (.245) against Zach Wheeler, but that includes four homers and four doubles. Wheeler wasn't elite in his rehab outings, so this isn't a matchup I'm fading.
Jo Adell ($2,800) is the bargain Angel against lefties with a .409 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .257 ISO.
Jack Flaherty is allowing a 372 wOBA to lefties against a .267 wOBA to righties. That can put some value into TJ Friedl ($2,600) out of the leadoff spot, or Nathaniel Lowe ($2,400) in the heart of the Reds order. Game stack is in order here with even betting odds and both teams sitting with a 4.9 run expectancy, so...
Stack to Consider
Tigers vs. Brady Singer (Reds): Kevin McGonigle ($3,300), Riley Greene ($3,100), Colt Keith ($2,700)
Singer has actually been more vulnerable to same-handed bats, but we'll go against that trend and target three lefty Tiger bats across the top of their order. McGonigle has a .416 wOBA, 164 wRC+ and .217 ISO against righties, Keith sits at .369/133/.097 and Greene .355/123/.176. Keith's lack of power is lessened by his second base eligibility as we know that's largely a fantasy wasteland. Great American Ballpark certainly adds to the appeal.
