An elongated 10-game main slate is on tap Tuesday at FanDuel, with games starting between 7:07 and 10:10 p.m. EDT. A dominant Jose Soriano (one run in 37.2 innings) leads four arms priced in five figures, with five more coming in at $9,000 or more, so 45 percent of our pitching options are in an upper tier. That suggests finding the right value bats will be paramount to success.
Athletics-Royals makes for an easy offensive consideration given the ballpark and elevated 9.5 run total. Given the depth of top quality arms, it's no surprise that half of the games Tuesday have low 7.5 run totals. Wind appears to be blowing in at Target Field in Minnesota, but otherwise weather does not appear to be a major factor.
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Pitching
Davis Martin, CWS vs. LAA ($9,600): If you're paying up or budget is no constraint, it's obviously Soriano ($11,300) or Shohei Ohtani ($10,500) on the mound, but for a low-rostered GPP play, consider Martin as an overlooked top option in the upper tier. He's allowed just four runs in his last four starts, all lasting at least six innings. The Angels have a 25.8 percent K rate off righties and with the low 7.5 run total, the expectation is for Martin to match Soriano at a discount.
Logan Gilbert, SEA at MIN ($8,700): This game comes with one of those five 7.5 run totals, and with inbound winds, we can more confidently back the cheaper of the two starting options. Gilbert is inconsistent, so better for GPPs, but his 4.36 ERA comes with a .301 FIP. He's allowing just 0.82 HR/9, and his 40.7 percent flyball rate should be negated by the winds. The Twins are league-average against righties with a 100 wRC+ and a 23.9 percent K rate, which doesnt suggest a massive ceiling, but he can conceivably reach a 3.5x return. The Twins roster is hitting just .127 with a .409 OPS in 58 plate appearances against Gilbert.
Clay Holmes, NYM vs. WSH ($8,100): It may be a struggle to get to much more than a 3.5x return from Holmes. He's fanning only 5.7 per nine and his 2.10 ERA comes with a 4.26 FIP, but I also don't love much that's available below him salary-wise, and with a 56.7 percent ground ball rate, Holmes should be able to at least limit damage as long as he can remain in the game. The Mets (-188) are heavily favored and the Nationals have just a 2.9 run expectancy. Strictly an odds play, Holmes is in a position for a win, possibly a quality start, and volume clean innings.
Top Targets
Anyone feel comfortable stacking the Mets on Tuesday after they scored one run in 18 innings Sunday and have just seven games with more than three runs all season? Didn't think so. Zack Littell is allowing 4.0 HR/9, a .501 wOBA and 1.191 OPS to lefties, though. As such, Juan Soto ($3,600) makes a lot of sense.
I'm a touch confused by Shea Langeliers' ($3,300) price. He's got four hits in his last two, has a .405 wOBA, 153 wRC+ and .321 ISO and faces Kris Bubic, who's allowing a .441 wOBA to righties on the road in limited exposure.
Casey Mize is allowing a .456 wOBA and 1.071 OPS to righties overall. Ronald Acuna ($3,200) and Austin Riley ($3,000) make for easy entry points to an offense expected to flirt with five runs.
Bargain Bats
Walker Buehler has been better at home, so I'm staying clear of a Cubs stack, but there's a lot of cheap upside pieces here. Buehler's .376 wOBA allowed to lefties (.306 to righties) lends itself to decent profiles for Michael Busch ($2,700) or Pete Crow-Armstrong ($2,700).
Aaron Civale is allowing a .558 wOBA and 1.292 OPS to lefties at home (small sample size of 15 batters faced), and we know this is a park and game we want to target. Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,600) has a homer, three hits, three RBI and four runs in his last four. Carter Jensen ($2,900) is in play too.
I loathe Milwaukee bats for fantasy, as there's no clear cut go-to option, but I buy this game going over its 8.0 run expectancy and want shares on both sides (see below). William Contreras ($2,900) stands out solely for salary and lineup position.
Stack to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Chad Patrick (Brewers): Corbin Carroll ($4,100), Ketel Marte ($3,200), Geraldo Perdomo ($3,200)
This sets up for either a mini-stack of Carroll and Marte, or the need for flexibility as we wait for the Diamondbacks' lineup to be released, as they have a plethora of players with a DTD tag. The target is Patrick, who is due massive regression. He's fanning only 4.3 per nine, and his 2.35 ERA comes with a 4.01 xERA and 5.60 xFIP. Carroll isn't in great form and Perdomo isn't assured to play, though Marte is riding a six-game hitting streak. Arizona has ample lefties to pivot to based on their lineup choices, where Patrick has been more vulnerable.
Dodgers vs. Janson Junk (Marlins): Max Muncy ($3,600), Kyle Tucker ($3,200), Freddie Freeman ($3,100)
A rare stacking opportunity for this offense. Junk is allowing a .396 wOBA to lefties as opposed to .167 to righties, and the top of this offense is loaded with opposite-handed bats. We also get a nice price reduction on Tucker and Freeman due to some questionable form. Dalton Rushing ($3,000) is in play too depending on where he slots in the lineup; possibly an elevated slot with Ohtani not expected to DH. He'd offer a nice discount to a feast or famine Muncy with Junk having allowed just two homers through 27.0 innings.
