This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
This could be a tricky slate to navigate. The first major variable is that we have four games starting at 6:40 or 6:45 p.m. ET but none of those games are included in the main slate. We have six games making up the main card starting at 7:10 p.m. ET, with many difficult pitching options to trust. That's why we're going to use two guys from the same game, so let's start there.
Pitching
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. TB ($8,900)
It's strange to call Tampa Bay a tremendous matchup, but the numbers speak for themselves. The Rays rank 26th in OPS, 28th in runs scored, 24th in strikeout rate and 25th in xwOBA. That's scary since T-Mobile Park has the lowest park factor in the league while surrendering the most strikeouts by a significant margin. Miller has taken advantage of that, posting a 2.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 rate there this season. We shouldn't belittle how he's been pitching everywhere, though, tallying a 1.99 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across his last seven starts.
Ryan Pepiot, TB at SEA ($8,200)
It's rare to recommend two pitchers from the same game, but we should be looking at a pitcher's duel here. The horrid offenses are the main reason, with Seattle sitting either 27th or 28th in runs scored, on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and wOBA. Most importantly, they have a 28 percent strikeout rate, which is on pace to tie the worst mark in Major League history. That makes them an excellent team to exploit, especially against a guy like Pepiot. The Rays righty has allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts, sporting a 2.02 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in that span. He also has a 9.5 K/9 rate and could be looking at double-digit strikeouts with how he's pitching right now.
Top Targets
Brenton Doyle, COL (vs. Edward Cabrera) $6,000
The Rockies always seem to have one player who becomes a stud every season, and it's been Doyle this year. The Gold Glove winner has taken over with his bat this season, collecting 21 homers and 25 steals. He also has a .977 OPS across his last 47 games while providing a .407 OBP, .727 slugging rate (SLG) and 1.134 OPS at home in that span. That's why his season OPS at Coors is creeping close to 1.000 and why he always bats third for the highest-projected offense on this slate. They have that lofty projection because of their opposition, which we'll discuss later.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR (vs. Cooper Criswell) $5,700
I'm going back to the well that keeps on giving. I've recommended Guerrero Jr. numerous times over the last few weeks, and he continues to go off nearly every game. The slugger has a .500 OBP, .878 SLG and 1.378 OPS across his last 35 games. If you want to stack Toronto, George Springer ($4,700) and Spencer Horwitz ($4,100) have been hot in the top half of this lineup.
Bargain Bats
Connor Norby, MIA (vs. Ryan Feltner) $3,700
Norby was a piece of a lengthy rebuild for the Marlins, acquiring him from the O's at the deadline. They've thrown this top prospect into the fire, hitting him leadoff for his new team. This youngster has thrived in that role, providing a .379 OBP, .750 SLG and 1.129 OPS over his last seven outings. That's the guy we saw in the minors, maintaining a .294 AVG, .373 OBP and 884 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A. Getting to face Feltner in Coors Field only adds to his intrigue. We'll discuss that more in the stacks section.
Parker Meadows, DET (Davis Martin) $3,500
Meadows was a top prospect in Pittsburgh's organization, but some mental and health issues have held him back from his full potential. Something has changed since coming off the injured list (IL). He has recorded a .386 OBP, .590 SLG and .976 OPS across his last 20 games. That's super since he has much better career splits against righties, facing one with a 4.41 career ERA and 1.32 WHIP. If you want to stack Detroit, we would use Riley Greene ($5,100), Kerry Carpenter ($4,400) or Matt Vierling ($3,800) against Martin.
Stacks to Consider
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins (Edward Cabrera): Brenton Doyle ($6,000), Charlie Blackmon ($4,900), Brendan Rodgers ($4,700) and Nolan Jones ($4,500)
Using Colorado in Coors Field has been a DFS player's dream for a decade. It's the gift that keeps giving. To put it simply, Coors Field is the highest-scoring park in baseball, and the Rockies are always projected to score 5-6 runs whenever they're at home. They can be challenging to trust against tough pitching, but that's not the case here. They're matching up with Cabrera, who's collected a 5.65 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in what's been a nightmarish season. Of note is that has an 8.14 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road this season.
We already talked about Doyle as one of our favorite plays, but Blackmon is right there with him. The former All-Star is projected to bat leadoff for the Rockies, flirting with a 1.000 OPS when he faces a righty at home throughout his career. Rodgers has been one of the hottest second basemen in the sport, tallying a .287 batting average (AVG) and .790 OPS over the last two months. He also has a .385 OBP and .869 OPS at home this season. Injuries have destroyed Jones, but he had a 20/20 season last year across just 106 games and could go off after posting a 1.200 OPS in his minor-league rehab assignment.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies (Ryan Feltner): Jake Burger ($5,600), Jonah Bride ($4,300), Connor Norby ($3,700)
This Colorado-Miami matchup features two of the worst offenses in baseball, but any lineup is projected to go off in Coors Field. That's truly evident by looking at this 10.5-run total, the highest on this slate by nearly two runs. That's why both of these offenses are projected to score over five runs, with the Rockies sending out Feltner for a spot start. The righty has a 5.58 career ERA and 1.47 WHIP while posting a 6.41 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at home.
Facing a pitcher like Feltner makes Burger one of the best bets on the board. The big man has a .371 OBP, .682 SLG and 1.053 OPS across his last 39 games. We already talked about Norby, but Bride is an important rookie as well. He's been hitting leadoff for this team, totaling a .396 OBP, .506 SLG and .902 OPS across his last 23 outings.
