This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Today: Expert Picks and Props for Thursday, July 20
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MLB Futures Check-In: AL East and NL Central
Currently, there are roughly a bit more than 60 games remaining in the 162-game MLB schedule and many of the 30 teams will make the tough choice to be buyers or sellers ahead of the looming July 31 trading deadline. The MLB hot stove is set to just warm right now with few realistic rumors percolating across the media outlets and major moves may be at a minimum this season.
The Tampa Bay Rays have led the AL East the entire season but now trail the Baltimore Orioles by percentage points. Every team in the AL East Division sports winning records, yet four of the five teams are on two or more-game losing streaks. Most notable are the Yankees, who have lost four straight and eight of their last 10 games. Their pitching staff has performed admirably and offset an extremely weak offense to this point. Their bullpen was one of the best in MLB, but has collapsed posting an 0-3 record with a 6.26 ERA and a 1.738 WHIP over their last seven games.
For the AL East, I continue to view the Red Sox as the team on the hunt for a wild-card playoff berth. I bet them at +6000 back in June to win the AL pennant with some spare pizza money. They have not disappointed and are now five games over .500 and priced at +3000 to win the AL pennant. The Red Sox are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers with a 10-4 record in games played in July. So, with Chris Sale making a potential comeback to the team later this season, the Red Sox are a great value even at +3000 to win the AL pennant.
On many shows that I have appeared on this season, I have been asked "What is wrong with the St. Louis Cardinals this season?". Well, whatever they did to right their sinking ship, they have fixed and have posted a 10-5 record in games played in July. They are on a five-game win streak, but trail by 9.5 games in the NL Wild Card race. They trail by 10 games in the weak NL Central division, which has just one team, the Chicago Cubs posting a positive scoring differential this season. It may be too late for the Cardinals to overcome a 10-game deficit, and it has been done before in previous MLB seasons. If you like the Cardinals to mount a historic winning run and take the divisional crown, then betting them now at +800 represents exceptional value.
Breaking Down the Rays vs Orioles Series
No Team is Due to Win When on a Losing Streak
The Baltimore Orioles will begin a four-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, who they are tied with on top of the AL East divisional standings. These teams also have the top records in the AL and the team with the best record at the end of the regular season will earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Rays are on a current four-game losing streak and have lost seven of their past 10 games. They lost seven consecutive games between July 1 and 8 and only the all-star break saved them from enduring more losses. The Rays are just 3-11 in games played in July, second-worst only to the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-12 losing collapse. In games played after the all-star break, AL teams that have lost 11 or more of their previous 15 games and facing a foe that has won eight or more of their last 10 games have produced a losing 31-60 record for 34% wins and a -23% ROI.
The following betting system has earned a solid 58-52 record for 53% winning bets averaging a +184 wager and earning a highly profitable 65% ROI over the past 25 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road underdogs facing a host that is priced as a -175 to -250 favorite, the favorite has a starter in excellent form having allowed no more than a single earned run in each of his last two starts, and with our dog having a struggling starting on the hill having posted an ERA of 7.00 or higher over his last five starts. So, this is one of those contrarian betting situations that has produced exceptional profits for 25 seasons.
Kyle Gibson will be on the hill for the Orioles and he has posted just one quality start in his past 5 starts and has posted a 5.40 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP over his last three starts. The Rays will have Tyler Glasnow on the hill, who is making his 10th start and is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.238 WHIP including 18 walks and 71 strikeouts spanning 47 2/3 innings of work. He has allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts, but completed six innings in only his most recent start against the woefully poor offense of the Kansas City Royals.
Orioles right-fielder Anthony Santander is batting 0.272 with a team-high 17 home runs and 172 total bases. They have players in the starting lineup that have hit 10 or more home runs, six starts with 40 or more RBI, and 10 players, who have hit 10 or more doubles this season. The Orioles are hungry to win and currently play superior baseball to that of the Rays.
Player Prop Bets for Today's Games
- Bet the Orioles' Adley Rutschman to get two or more hits +320
- Bet the Orioles' Austin Hays to hit a home run +750
- Bet the Cubs' Marcus Stroman to allow six or more hits +105
- Bet the Cardinals' Nolan Arenado to hit a double +360
- Bet the CWS's Jake Burger to get a hit -200
