This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Friday, August 9
- Year-to-Date Record: 130-124-1
- Prior article: 1-3 ( -1.30 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
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MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Houston Astros 
at Boston Red Sox 
Tanner Houck has gone from American League All-Star and a top-three Cy Young candidate to getting shelled in his six starts (6.16 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 5.0 BB/9, 1.8 HR/9). All of these are screaming of a pitcher who is gassed after 134 innings. His previous career high was 106.
The Red Sox have been the best offense in baseball since June 1, and even better since the All-Star Break, going 9-1, 15-5 and 20-9-1 to the over in their last 10/20/30 games. Ronel Blanco is a right-handed pitcher, which the Red Sox do much better against with their lefty-heavy bats.
Totals are often just thrown up on the board and books expect to move them maybe 0.5 runs, but in this case, I have the total projected at 10 runs and would move on it before the public moves it.
MLB Picks for Astros at Red Sox
- Astros/Red Sox OVER 9 runs for 2 units (DraftKings -122)
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
This might be one of my best bets of the season with Ryne Nelson as a significant home dog against Zack Wheeler. So much of a line is based on name value and perception, which you can use to your advantage here.
The Diamondbacks are the hottest team in baseball and Nelson has been one of the best pitchers since the All-Star break with a 2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 0.2 HR/9. Nelson has had a couple of rough outings recently, but we also get Wheeler on the road where he is not the same pitcher. Also, the Phillies are much better against left-handed pitching.
Wheeler used to have more significant home/road splits, but recent starts against the Giants, Angels and Reds have evened things out. Still, I will take the home dog with a hot team and pitcher in this spot.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks ML for 2 units (FanDuel +142)
New York Mets 
at Seattle Mariners 
Jose Quintana is +100 on the road at Seattle? That line smells fishy to me. The Mets have been playing good baseball, but Bryce Miller has found his groove since June 29th with a 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 28:3 K:BB ratio. Quintana has solid numbers on the surface, but a 90 percent strand rate and 4.88 FIP tell me regression is coming.
The Mariners are still only playing around .500 ball in their last 10 games, but the gap between Miller and Quintana is pretty significant and the Mariners are very attractive at this price. I also like the total in this game to go under as you can find eights at some books.
MLB Picks for Mets at Mariners
- Mariners ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -112)
- Mets/Mariners UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Astros/Red Sox OVER 9 runs for 2 units (DraftKings -122)
- Diamondbacks ML for 2 units (FanDuel +142)
- Mariners ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -112)
- Mets/Mariners UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
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